MASH Report (8/5/13)

With Biogenesis dominating the news front, injury information again is a little scarce, but I was able to scape up a bit.

Pitchers returning from the DL

Brandon McCarthy looks fine with his average sinker velocity consistent with his previous speeds.

Sergio Santos‘s fastball velocity was at a 3-year low in his first appearance since coming off the DL.

Steve Johnson saw his already low velocity drop even further.

Jared Hughes‘s velocity is up compared to earlier in the season.

Stephen Fife‘s velocity is constant

Ross Ohlendorf and Steve Delabar were both place on the DL with pains which were lingering. I expect more and more out of contention teams will follow suit and rest players for 2014.

Paul Konerko is done for in my opinion. The 37-year-old is experiencing back issues which can destroy a player’s production (source).

Ventura gave Konerko a break Thursday afternoon because the Sox played a night game Wednesday. Ventura admitted he’s careful not to extend him after his three-week stint on the DL.
“It’s just more protecting his back,” said Ventura, saying that Konerko experienced “a little something” while running the bases this week.

Konerko used to be an undervalued fantasy player in his mid-30’s, but I would not count on his production from now on.

Michael Pineda is having problems with his shoulder again and it looks unlikely he will help the Yankees down the stretch (source).

“His strength tested out fine after the game, but he is probably going to see our doctors would be my guess,” Joe Girardi said. “With what he’s been through, we’re making sure that it’s nothing, but I can’t tell you 100% it’s not.”

The Yankees have been managing Pineda’s innings carefully since he started pitching again, throwing him between three and five innings per start. Girardi said he wouldn’t have been surprised to see Pineda join the team down the stretch, though that’s obviously now in question.

I see no reason to continue to hold Pineda in a redraft league.

• A “talent evaluator” believes CC Sabathia‘s loss production is because of his weight loss (source and a H/T to Hardball Talk).

“The weight loss has created a balance problem for him,“ said one talent evaluator. “He’s all over the place. He’s learning how to pitch in that body, a body he’s really never had. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with him other than that. Sometimes you pitch at a certain weight all your life and then someone has the brilliant idea that you should lose weight because it’s putting stress on your knees, you do it, and then you’re dealing with something else.”

I really don’t believe the theory, but it is a theory.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with 100 PA in 2013 and 500 PA from 2010 to 2012):

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury. Differentiating opinion exist on his heath.

Name HURT PA (2013) PA (2010-2012)
B.J. Upton 195.6 328 1883
Seth Smith 183.6 339 1372
Nolan Reimold 171.6 140 505
Jason Kubel 147.6 247 1554
Albert Pujols 140.4 443 2021
Chris Iannetta 136.8 288 902
Aramis Ramirez 121.2 209 1763
Justin Turner 121.2 128 690
Melky Cabrera 120 372 1716
Lance Berkman 115.2 282 1165
Vernon Wells 111.6 362 1437
Cesar Izturis 111.6 116 719
Chris Johnson 110.4 362 1295
Alex Avila 109.2 273 1318
Miguel Montero 106.8 376 1457
Giancarlo Stanton 104.4 297 1498
John Jaso 97.2 249 1038
Brandon Phillips 96 454 1985
Dustin Ackley 96 263 1044
Kevin Youkilis 96 118 1461
Delmon Young 94.8 285 1724
Matt Kemp 93.6 251 1806
Paul Konerko 92.4 333 1868
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 91.2 340 864
Brandon Inge 91.2 110 1214

• A few weeks ago, Miguel Montero showed up on the HURT leader board as one of several catchers who may be playing through a few dings and dents. He was just placed on the DL with a back strain which has lingered for a while.

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (30 IP in 2012, 30 Ip in 2013)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.

Name PAIN IP (2013) IP (2012)
Jeff Locke 236.9 125.2 34.1
Jason Marquis 212.2 117.2 127.2
Lucas Harrell 186.8 122.1 193.2
Esmil Rogers 152.8 93.2 78.2
Tanner Scheppers 136.1 50.1 32.1
Alexi Ogando 128.4 69.0 66.0
Pedro Strop 115.6 36.1 66.1
Matt Moore 112.1 121.1 177.1
Scott Feldman 105.0 127.1 123.2
Adam Ottavino 103.0 56.2 79.0
Francisco Liriano 100.4 102.2 156.2
Luis Mendoza 94.4 86.1 166.0
Felix Hernandez 89.3 160.2 232.0
Scott Downs 86.7 33.0 45.2
Tony Sipp 85.1 32.2 55.0
John Axford 84.8 46.0 69.1
Michael Gonzalez 80.6 40.0 35.2
Zack Greinke 78.9 105.0 212.1
Craig Stammen 78.4 58.2 88.1
Ryan Webb 74.4 49.1 60.1
Jake Westbrook 73.5 98.1 174.2
Jordan Walden 73.3 37.0 39.0
Fernando Rodney 63.7 45.2 74.2
Burke Badenhop 62.8 49.0 62.1
Mark Melancon 61.8 52.1 45.0

• The newest Oriole, Scott Feldman, has the signs of a pitcher throwing with PAIN. His velocity is down from 2012 (91.7 to 90.1 mph) and still declining.

Also, he is having problems throwing strikes with his Zone% dropping for 50% to 46%.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.




Print This Post

Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


10 Responses to “MASH Report (8/5/13)”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. endershadow says:

    Would you try to shop Giancarlo in a redraft because of his hurt value? (assuming you can get full value) Or is it high because of his early season dl stints…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      His HURT value is from his decline in power from 2012 (.318) to 2013 (.221). Most of the loss happened in the first half of this season. His ISO is higher in the 2nd half the season (.208) to (.263).

      Personally, I think he gets tired of being pitched around all the time and swings at crappy pitches and makes crappy contact.

      I would look at his 2nd half production and see if you can improve on it with another player.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Nord says:

    So I’m assuming you would be selling Francisco Liriano high right now?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chrisb says:

      He’s been in the spot on the PAIN list for months, so maybe not.

      On the other hand, if you sold him before seeing this post, wouldn’t you still feel like you were selling high?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Giovani says:

    I would also like to hear more about Liriano’s PAIN score. His peripherals look a lot like a guy who’s actually healthy for the first time in 4-5 years.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. pmacho says:

    interesting to see Chris Johnson on this list

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • majnun says:

      This might be an approach change, sacrificing some power for average

      That’s just a out of me bum box score gut reaction though I don’t know about any of this

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Jack says:

    Maybe I missed it but I haven’t seen Haren’s name on the HURT list ever. His zone% is up slightly since coming off the DL and he hasn’t been giving up the long ball as much but his FB is doen to 88! and he’s only face one above average offense since the DL – PIT, who got him for 5 ER. WAS has a pretty easy schedule ROS I was thinking about picking him up for the back back end of my rotation.

    Thoughts on him or would I be better off stashing Anderson or just streaming?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>