MASH Report (9/12/13)

My main goal over the season’s last few MASH reports is to keep a good list of players out for the season, but not officially on the DL. Besides the two DL lists at the bottom, I will look at a few players and updated PAIN and HURT reports.

Tony Cingrani is out with back spasms. I could see the Reds experiment with him to find out if he is able to contribute in the post season. I would just stay away from him over the rest of the season.

Ian Kinsler has mentioned he has an injury. Not knowing the full extent of the injury, it does seem to be affecting him. So far in September, he is hitting .217/.217/.283 with a 20% K% (twice his season average). If an owner has another option for 2B or MI, they may want to utilize it.

Bryce Harper can’t talk about his injury. IMO, I think the Nationals just don’t want to deal with answering why they let him play hurt. The Nationals are again mishandling an injury situation which seems to be a constant theme with them.

Felix Hernandez is going to miss a start. I have no problem with this decision. Sucks for his fantasy owners in heated end of season battles. He has always thrown a ton of innings. Seattle should not take the chance of their team’s top star getting hurt.

Clay Buchholz‘s average fastball velocity was not great in his return.

Also, he only threw pitches in the strike zone 40% of the time. I don’t think he is 100%, but his 90% is better than the 100% of the Red Sox’s other options. I think he will continue to throw until the Red Sox lock up the AL East. Once 1st place is secure, I think he will rest.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with at least 200 PA in 2013 and 600 PA from 2010 to 2012)

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

Name PAIN PA (2010-2013) PA (2013)
B.J. Upton 206 1883 422
Seth Smith 173 1372 394
Albert Pujols 140 2021 443
Chris Johnson 133 1295 486
Cesar Izturis 128 719 136
Josh Willingham 125 1629 425
Chris Iannetta 122 902 360
Miguel Montero 121 1457 425
Melky Cabrera 120 1716 372
Paul Konerko 118 1868 468
Lance Berkman 118 1165 288
Alex Avila 116 1318 330
Aramis Ramirez 104 1763 311
Troy Tulowitzki 101 1338 450
Mark Kotsay 101 770 151
Willie Bloomquist 100 918 121
John Jaso 97 1038 249
Starlin Castro 96 1912 633
Kevin Youkilis 96 1461 118
Matt Kemp 94 1806 251
Giancarlo Stanton 91 1498 427
Ryan Roberts 91 1115 173
Brandon Inge 91 1214 110
Jay Bruce 90 1870 629
Nick Markakis 90 1896 625
Nick Hundley 82 840 359
Jose Reyes 79 1905 344
Danny Espinosa 77 1428 167
J.P. Arencibia 74 895 457
Prince Fielder 73 2096 648

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (min 200 pitches in Sept and Aug, comparing August and September results to the rest of the 2013 season)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.

Name Pain Velocity (Mar – July) Zone% (Mar-July) Velocity (Aug–Sep) Zone% (Aug-Sep)
Jarred Cosart 173 95.0 50.9% 94.2 42.3%
Lucas Harrell 160 91.9 40.7% 91.2 35.3%
Chad Qualls 138 93.9 55.9% 94.0 45.3%
Oliver Perez 134 92.6 55.0% 91.6 48.0%
Chad Gaudin 132 91.2 51.6% 89.3 48.1%
Luke Gregerson 124 88.0 47.0% 88.4 39.0%
Yoervis Medina 119 94.2 42.3% 93.2 39.8%
Roy Halladay 117 87.9 45.4% 86.7 42.6%
Casey Janssen 115 89.6 50.4% 89.5 43.3%
Addison Reed 114 93.1 55.5% 92.0 49.7%
Dallas Keuchel 111 89.0 49.2% 89.3 41.5%
Brandon McCarthy 111 90.9 57.0% 89.5 52.0%
Wade Miley 102 91.0 48.0% 90.8 42.4%
Jose Veras 101 91.6 50.2% 90.9 45.6%
Will Harris 98 91.8 50.6% 91.4 45.1%
A.J. Griffin 97 88.8 51.5% 88.8 44.7%
Dan Jennings 96 91.9 47.3% 92.1 41.2%
John Lannan 93 87.7 50.0% 87.9 43.3%
Ryan Vogelsong 93 89.9 48.7% 88.0 48.1%
Chris Perez 92 92.5 56.3% 92.7 47.8%
Jeremy Bonderman 89 90.6 45.6% 91.2 39.1%
Tim Collins 89 93.1 51.4% 92.7 46.3%
Jerry Blevins 80 90.1 46.5% 89.2 44.9%
Hisashi Iwakuma 79 88.5 51.4% 87.6 48.1%
Alex Wood 78 92.2 54.5% 91.1 51.1%
Justin Masterson 75 92.0 51.9% 90.8 49.4%
Dale Thayer 74 92.9 55.3% 92.6 49.5%
Jonathan Papelbon 73 91.1 50.9% 90.6 47.1%
Trevor Cahill 72 89.3 46.8% 90.1 40.7%
Danny Farquhar 71 92.2 48.1% 91.7 45.1%

No real movement at the top of the list, but some interesting names a little further down.

Justin Masterson is seeing a large drop in velocity and will be sitting out a start or two.

Travis Wood and Hisashi Iwakuma both saw recently velocity drops, but they have been inching upward.

Wood

Iwakuma

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Unofficial DL List

Official DL List




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

5 Responses to “MASH Report (9/12/13)”

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  1. deezy333 says:

    Would you feel safe starting Buchholz at home against the Yankees?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Yes, unless your staff is loaded. This late in the season, you may really look to see if his start can hurt you (bad rate stats) vice help (good counting stats).

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. EmptyTheBench says:

    This is a name you probably weren’t expecting to get based on the overall line – but can you take a look at Miguel Cabrera? Since going down with the abdominal injury he’s been significantly less than his usual superhuman self.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      He is for sure down and said to be playing through some injuries. His August ISO (.000) is down for sure.

      Looking at some batted ball data, he is way slower at hitting the balls.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Close to the Edge says:

    What do you think about Felix Hernandez? Don’t see him on any of the lists.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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