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MASH Report (9/3/13)

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On September 3, 2013 @ 2:15 pm In MASH | 3 Comments

September has started and that means tracking disabled players should becomes easier since no team puts players on it with the expanded rosters. Instead of taking the easy route, I am going to try to keep a list of players who would probably be on the DL if teams still had to use it. I will stay on the conservative side and list players who may be healthy. If they just DH or PH, I will still list them.

• A couple of interesting injury articles were recently published. First, the Pioneer Press examined changes in catcher masks and if they are behind the increase in catcher concussions. Also, Dustin Palmateer of Baseball Prospectus looked at forecasting pitcher injuries by their college pitch load. Short answer, he found no correlation.

Matt Moore is going to start to today after coming off the DL. His velocity looks to be in the low 90s (source).

He hit 96 mph once in the next inning, but mostly stayed in the low-90s while mixing in plenty of changeups to reestablish his confidence in the pitch that had first brought on the discomfort.

These value are about identical to his values before going on the DL. Additionally, his 2013 velocity was down almost 2 mph from 2012. I don’t expect a huge turnaround from him and expect his ERA to be around 4.00.

• The Pirates have announced they will be bringing Wandy Rodriguez back as a possible reliever. Also, the Cubs will use Scott Baker in the bullpen if he returns.

DL Returnees

Neftali Feliz‘s average fastball velocity wasn’t great, coming in at 94.3 mph. This value is 0.4 mph less than he threw in 2012 as starter and 2 mph less than 2011 as a reliever.

It will be interesting to see where the previous fireballer’s talent level stabilizes.

Nick Tepesch‘s velocity looked good.

• As did Bartolo Colon‘s

Steve Delabar‘s looked good also.

• And finally, so does Dustin McGowan‘s

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with at least 100 PA in 2013 and 400 PA from 2010 to 2012):

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

Name HURT PA (2010 to 2012) PA (2013) ISO_diff
B.J. Upton 193 1883 400 -0.091
Seth Smith 182 1372 378 -0.051
Chris Iannetta 143 902 335 -0.032
Albert Pujols 140 2021 443 -0.052
Cesar Izturis 140 719 129 -0.06
Josh Willingham 133 1629 403 -0.099
Chris Johnson 131 1295 459 -0.033
Melky Cabrera 120 1716 372 -0.089
Alex Avila 120 1318 308 -0.005
Lance Berkman 118 1165 286 -0.064
Miguel Montero 116 1457 397 -0.039
Aramis Ramirez 116 1763 281 -0.072
Paul Konerko 108 1868 436 -0.073
Mark Kotsay 100 770 146 -0.061
Vernon Wells 97 1437 410 -0.046
Giancarlo Stanton 97 1498 401 -0.094
Jose Reyes 97 1905 312 -0.017
John Jaso 97 1038 249 -0.079
Nick Markakis 96 1896 596 -0.085
Justin Turner 96 690 177 -0.049
Kevin Youkilis 96 1461 118 -0.05
Matt Kemp 94 1806 251 -0.117
Starlin Castro 92 1912 598 -0.046
Ryan Roberts 91 1115 173 0.004
Brandon Inge 91 1214 110 -0.108

Chris Johnson is still showing up on the list. After searching the interwebs, I can’t find if he changed his plate approach or is hurt. I do know the following. His ISO (.137) is over 20 points lower than where his projections had him (~.160 ISO). His Contact% is at a 3-year-low (75% vs 78% and 76%). His Speed Score is non-existent at 1.0.

The signs of an are exist, but it is not showing up in his AVG. As long as he keeps his AVG near .300, I see no reason for him to go on the D.L.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Official List

Unofficial September List


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