MASH Report (9/9/13)

Sorry for no report at the end of last week, I had a funeral to attend. For today’s report, I have a ton of information to catch up on. First, the official and unofficial DL lists are updated. I am trying to keep the unofficial one up to date the best I can, but sorry if I miss any players. For most of the rest of the article, I will look at couple of hitters playing through injuries and about a dozen pitchers returning from the disabled list.

Buster Posey‘s has a broken ring finger, but he does think it will affect him much (source).

“From what I’m hearing from trainers and doctors, hopefully in a couple of days, once it calms down, I’ll be able to play through it,” said Posey, who called the pain “minimal.”

He has played in one game (yesterday) since the injury and got 2 hits, including a double. I would not be surprised to see his power suffer a bit as he deals with the injury.

Bryce Harper has been dealing with a aggravated hip since April. He should out perform his projections in 2014 which would be pretty crazy. His 2013 ZIPS projections tabbed him at .274/.346/.486. He has responded by hitting .273/.377/.504. The better than expect increase is from additional walks and power. Improving on these values would be great in 2014, if he can stay healthy.

DL returners

Scott Baker‘s average sinkerball is 2 mph less than in 2011.

Being two years removed from pitching, I will not even try to guess where is his talent level. Once it is known, good or bad, the season will be over. I would just stay away from him for now.

Matt Cain‘s velocity looks fine.

He did have a bit of a problem throwing strikes, 3 NIBB and a 39% Zone%

Frank Francisco‘s velocity looks fine.

• So was Corey Kluber‘s

Jason Grilli‘s velocity was down to a season low in his first relief appearance.

It was up a bit in the next one. He will need to continue the upward trend to get back to pre-injury levels.

Roy Oswalt was at a 3-year low in velocity

There is no reason to roster him right now.

Jake Westbrook saw a nice up tick in velocity

He just could not find the strike zone with a 35% Zone%. He has a BB/9 (3.9) higher than his K/9 (3.4) before the DL stint. I would continue to stay way until he finds a way to throw strikes.

Tony Cingrani‘s fastball was OK, but near his 2 year low.

Alexi Ogando will be in the bullpen only over the rest of the season. His reliever velocity is better than his starting velocity, but it is below his 2012 reliever velocity.

Jason Hammel will also only pitch out of the bullpen until the season’s end.His relief velocity is similar to his starting velocity from earlier in the season.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Unofficial DL List

Official DL List

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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

12 Responses to “MASH Report (9/9/13)”

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  1. Jack says:

    Your help all year has been HUGE! I know we can’t analyze numbers for it and I know you’re not a doctor, but based on what you have heard (out of the boot etc.) and your years of experience, do you think we get Craig back before next Monday’s game.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      No, from the article linked above:

      “With only three weeks and change remaining in the regular season, it would seem unlikely that Craig, who was hurt in a freak spill Wednesday in Cincinnati, would be able to play before the last week of the season. Perhaps he wouldn’t be ready until the October baseball the Cardinals have reason to believe they will be playing.

      General manager John Mozeliak said Friday, “Overall we were lucky, in the sense that (there is) no fracture. Based on what we saw that night, we certainly thought it was going to be worse.

      “But he’s still in a boot. It’s going to be one of those things where each day we may learn a little more. But, in the short term, he’s not going to be available any time soon.””

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  2. CC says:

    Any word on Clay Buchholz’s velocity in his minor league stint? In his first start back, he was around 85, but I didn’t see anything regarding his velocity in his last rehab start.

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  3. EmptyTheBench says:

    Other than Pedroia’s disastrous similar injury from a few years ago, do we have any baseline for Ellsbury? 2-3 weeks?

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I don’t have time to go through each foot break for exact details, but here are all the hitters with broken or fractured feet since 2002:

      Name, Season, Days, InjuryType
      Brandon Larson, 2002, 15, Break
      Josh Wilson, 2006, 66, Break
      Jorge Cantu, 2006, 44, Break
      Eric Chavez, 2011, 81, broken
      Dustin Pedroia, 2010, 52, broken
      Jason Varitek, 2010, 66, broken
      Charlie Blackmon, 2011, 82, fracture
      Francisco Cervelli, 2011, 29, fracture
      Adam Rosales, 2011, 67, fracture
      Nate Schierholtz, 2011, 37, fracture
      Emmanuel Burriss, 2010, 181, fracture
      Jorge Posada, 2010, 16, fracture
      Juan Uribe, 2003, 65, Fracture
      Travis Hafner, 2003, 16, Fracture
      Jerry Hairston, 2003, 107, Fracture
      Alcides Escobar, 2004, 49, Fracture
      Ryan Church, 2005, 15, Fracture
      Shawn Green, 2007, 16, Fracture
      Frank Thomas, 2004, 90, Fracture
      Khalil Greene, 2005, 15, Fracture
      Larry Bigbie, 2006, 36, Fracture
      Torii Hunter, 2006, 15, Fracture
      Ian Kinsler, 2007, 30, Fracture
      Adam Jones, 2008, 30, Fracture
      Austin Kearns, 2008, 36, Fracture
      Kenji Johjima, 2009, 32, Fracture
      Reed Johnson, 2009, 54, Fracture
      Emmanuel Burriss, 2009, 35, Fracture
      Cody Ross, 2012, 31, Fracture
      Michael Martinez, 2012, 62, Fracture
      Logan Forsythe, 2012, 61, Fracture
      Average, , 49.4,

      Doesn’t look good for a quick turn around.

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  4. David says:

    Any word on Brandon Beachy? His “10 days and then ask Doc Andrews again” period passed without any news that I could find …

    Also, two weeks left and I can’t keep Craig and Fowler for next season. Any chance of them being useful?

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  5. chri521 says:

    Scott Baker’s average sickerball?

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  6. Detroit Michael says:

    Our condolences to you, Jeff.

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