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MASH Report – Final PAIN Rankings

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On October 14, 2013 @ 2:15 pm In Featured,MASH | 4 Comments

The only major injury news is on Manny Machado’s knee surgery. Besides looking at his return timetable, I examined the end of season PAIN rankings.

Manny Machado decided to have surgery on his knee today after he consulted several different doctors. It looks like he may not be be ready by opening day.

The first-time All-Star faces four to six months of rehab after the procedure, according to MLB.com. Dodgers orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the surgery Monday.

Four months puts his rehab ending in February (six months ends April) and then he will need to get up to playing mode which could be another month. His owners will need a backup plan for the possible 1-2 months he will be out.

Sonny Gray broke his finger last Thursday against the Tigers. The results are not yet known to the public. I expect them to be known in a day or so.

• Looking back on PAIN

I created PAIN to help find pitchers who had injured pitcher traits. The desirable traits were a constant fastball velocity and the ability to throw pitches in the strike zone. If a pitcher was struggling throwing strikes and maintain velocity, they showed up in the list. I tinkered a bit with the values and was able to look at month to month values later in the season, but overall it remain relatively constant.

Here is the finally top 30 PAIN scores (full list).

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (min 30 IP in 2012 and 2013 season)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.

Name PAIN 2013 Velocity 2012 Velocity Diff 2013 Zone% 2012 Zone% Diff 2013 IP 2012 IP
Jeff Locke 266.0 90.3 90.8 -0.5 41.0% 53.5% -12.5% 166.1 34.1
Lucas Harrell 218.6 92.2 92.2 0.0 40.5% 49.1% -8.6% 153.2 193.2
Jason Marquis 212.2 86.9 88.5 -1.6 39.2% 45.7% -6.5% 117.2 127.2
Esmil Rogers 183.2 93.6 95.7 -2.1 45.8% 51.5% -5.7% 137.2 78.2
Jared Hughes 146.2 91.9 92.3 -0.5 34.0% 35.5% -1.6% 32.0 75.2
Jonathan Broxton 145.6 94.0 94.8 -0.7 45.7% 53.9% -8.1% 30.2 58.0
Scott Downs 139.7 87.9 88.6 -0.7 38.2% 43.7% -5.5% 43.1 45.2
Tanner Scheppers 129.3 96.3 96.1 0.1 47.0% 56.4% -9.5% 76.2 32.1
Pedro Strop 128.8 95.6 96.4 -0.8 45.6% 48.7% -3.1% 57.1 66.1
Matt Moore 128.1 92.3 94.1 -1.9 46.4% 50.3% -3.9% 150.1 177.1
Ryan Webb 128.0 92.1 94.0 -1.9 49.2% 51.6% -2.4% 80.1 60.1
Marc Rzepczynski 110.4 90.8 92.1 -1.3 40.7% 42.2% -1.5% 30.2 46.2
Rex Brothers 103.2 93.4 95.2 -1.9 45.3% 48.8% -3.4% 67.1 67.2
Felix Hernandez 101.8 91.3 92.4 -1.1 46.7% 49.8% -3.1% 204.1 232.0
Alexi Ogando 101.2 93.5 96.9 -3.4 50.8% 54.5% -3.8% 104.1 66.0
Adam Ottavino 100.4 91.4 94.0 -2.6 50.5% 53.1% -2.6% 78.1 79.0
Craig Stammen 96.8 91.3 91.4 -0.1 39.8% 43.8% -4.0% 81.2 88.1
Scott Feldman 95.4 90.0 91.0 -1.0 46.7% 50.2% -3.5% 181.2 123.2
Luis Mendoza 95.3 91.8 92.3 -0.5 42.1% 43.7% -1.6% 94.0 166.0
Tony Sipp 91.6 90.3 91.1 -0.7 44.0% 48.4% -4.4% 37.2 55.0
J.J. Putz 90.8 91.7 92.8 -1.1 44.0% 47.6% -3.6% 34.1 54.1
Mark Melancon 88.9 92.7 93.1 -0.3 46.5% 51.9% -5.5% 71.0 45.0
Jordan Walden 82.2 95.6 96.3 -0.7 47.7% 52.4% -4.7% 47.0 39.0
Addison Reed 79.5 92.7 94.5 -1.8 52.9% 57.6% -4.7% 71.1 55.0
Tyson Ross 77.9 94.0 92.4 1.6 45.7% 51.4% -5.7% 125.0 73.1
Hiroki Kuroda 77.5 91.1 91.6 -0.5 44.1% 46.7% -2.5% 201.1 219.2
Marco Estrada 77.3 89.1 90.1 -1.0 46.8% 49.9% -3.1% 128.0 138.1
Guillermo Moscoso 75.4 91.3 91.2 0.0 45.2% 50.5% -5.3% 30.0 50.0
Javier Lopez 72.8 87.8 85.4 2.4 42.6% 45.7% -3.0% 39.1 36.0
Tom Wilhelmsen 68.8 95.9 96.2 -0.3 49.4% 55.6% -6.2% 59.0 79.1

Overall, I liked the results given everything involved, but I have two comments to make.

First, the list seems to almost do a better job of finding pitchers who are struggling. The struggle may or may not be caused by an injury. All-Star Jeff Locke lost velocity and command compared to 2012. For part of the season, he was able minimize the damage from his walks and keep a low ERA. In the season’s second half, he struggled and was demoted to the minors.

Second, I would like to add a Chase% value to offset the Zone%. If a pitcher can get hitters, to chase pitches out of the strike zone, why should they have to throw in it. Before next season starts, I will add it into PAIN.

Possible Players on the DL to Start the 2014 Season

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

Minor League Report


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