Mike Aviles & David Lough: Deep League Wire

It’s deep league waiver wire day, which is obviously the best day of the week. Apologies to my NL-Only league friends, only American Leaguers today.

Mike Aviles | CLE SS/3B (and perhaps 2B depending on your eligibility rules) | 8% Owned

Since Lonnie Chisenhall‘s demotion on May 13, Aviles has started five of the Indians’ eight games. With Mark Reynolds‘ former ability to play third base, Aviles is not going to be guaranteed a lineup slot every game. But Reynolds of course was moved to first for a reason, so Aviles should continue to enjoy plenty of playing time. His multiple eligibility is a huge bonus, especially in deep leagues where you’re choosing from the scrap heap. The ability to move players around to fill holes is extremely valuable.

From an offensive perspective, Aviles has typically been a relatively decent middle man for fantasy squads. He has some power and some speed, and makes pretty good contact. Over 550 at-bats, he has averaged about 13 homers and 16 steals, a combination that would even produce some value in 12-team mixed leagues. He doesn’t walk a whole lot and has defensive issues at third base himself. But he should continue to accumulate the plate appearances, given Reynolds’ even weaker defense at the hot corner.

David Lough | KC OF | 1% Owned

Just as Jarrod Dyson was beginning to swipe significant playing time away from Jeff Francouer, he sprains his ankle, which will keep him out 2-4 weeks. Up comes David Lough, a man who gets Eno Sarris’ stamp of approval after Eno scooped him up this week in our Tout Wars league. Lough is a 27-year old non-prospect who has not been referenced in a FanGraphs article since 2009. He hits on the good side of a platoon, meaning he could garner the majority of the playing time against right-handers until Dyson returns.

Lough has shown a bit of pop in the minors, generally posting ISO marks in the .140-.160 range, and launching around low teen home runs extrapolated over 550 at-bats. But his best fantasy asset is his speed. He’s nowhere near the speed demon that Dyson is, but Lough has stolen 26 bases in a season before and stole 5 (though with 5 caughts) before he was promoted this year. He also makes pretty good contact, and because he’s not a complete black hole in power like Dyson, shouldn’t kill your batting average, even if he posts a pedestrian BABIP. Despite pretty weak on base skills, he has hit leadoff all three games he has started. As usual, when a manager isn’t very good at setting a batting order, take advantage!




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Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.


5 Responses to “Mike Aviles & David Lough: Deep League Wire”

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  1. All Balls No Brains says:

    I think we finally found one source of systemic error in ZiPS, no player value for frequency of Fangraphs mentions.

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  2. Andre says:

    Any opinion on Chris Colabello?

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  3. geo says:

    David Lough’s minor league OBP is .349, which is fine for a leadoff batter. His major league experience is too small a sample size to decide that “he doesn’t get on base.” We’d all prefer that our leadoff batter get on base at a .375 – .400 clip, but, as Ned Yost will inform you, such players do not grow on trees. At least he doesn’t have Francoeur leading off.

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  4. lee says:

    how about Gattis vs Grandal for rest of season?

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