Mixed League Waiver Wire: B.J. Upton, Brad Miller

It’s a “dudes who have been dropped in a lot of mixed leagues” edition. These two have disappointed in different ways – one with fairly low expectations, one with optimistic forecasts – but both of their outcomes have been roughly equal in terms of suckitude. The signs, lately, both performance-wise and in terms of team dynamics, have given fantasy owners reasons for cautious optimism going forward, though.

OF B.J. Upton, Atlanta Braves

Ownership: CBS 32% | Yahoo! 27% | ESPN 37.3%

The Bravos have already pulled the plug on Dan Uggla (.175/.252/.254 in 127 plate appearances). Tommy La Stella projects to produce little in the way of fantasy statistics, but he should deliver his club stability at the keystone.

Upton (.221/.296/.357 in 224 plate appearances), then, would seem to be next in the crosshairs. Atlanta’s attitude toward their major free-agent signing of two winters ago has been a bit more forgiving, however. Multiple staffers have expressed confidence in and satisfaction with what they haven’t been able to describe as anything more than slow and steady progress. He’s committed to the toil required for a turnaround. He’s now sporting specs.

To be fair to Upton, he’s provided his team with notably more value than Uggla because of his above-par defense and less crappy stick work. The Braves’ alternatives to Upton – Jordan Schafer and minor leaguers Jose Constanza and Todd Cunningham, 25 – are underwhelming, as well.

Tell your children: Hard work doesn’t always pay off, at least in the way that its doer hopes at the time. Upton may eventually learn that it’s time to become a restaurateur, engineer or plumber. He may be happier in the end, but he wants to be more successful at baseball again. His fantasy owners want that for him. Or is it for them? Selfish bastards.

Upton has taken baby steps. Before he incorporated the glasses into his uniform ensemble, he hit .205/.287/.295 in 87 plate appearances; after, .231/.301/.397 in 137 plate appearances, with a notable bump in ISO. Fredi Gonzalez dropped him from the two-hole for 14 games, beginning on May 5. The move coincided with a strikeout binge, but Upton said that he didn’t want to use it as an excuse.

Besides, Upton and hitting coach Greg Walker weren’t finished tinkering. The former requested help to quiet his hands pre-load. Prior to the change: .203/.272/.329 in 159 plate appearances; after, .268/.354/.429, with a 12.3 BB% and 16.9 K%, in 65 plate appearances, with his BABIP remaining around a very modest .300, as it has all season. Walker said that he believed he noticed distinct differences in Upton’s swing plane. The fly-chaser’s fly-ball rate appears to be on the rebound.

B.J. Upton Batted Ball

We’re dealing with small samples here, but the results are pretty encouraging. To this point, approximately halfway to his 2013 total of plate appearances, Upton has been markedly better in terms of wOBA (.252 to 2.92), wRC+ (56 to 83) and value on offense (-21.7 to -2.8). It’s not positive worth, but it’s improvement, and there’s reason to believe that it’ll get better. Watching him today, against the Seattle Mariners and Hisashi Iwakuma, he looks as if he might still be trying to find his triggers and timing a little. It may take more time, if it comes, against hurlers who are more deliberate.

Of course, if Upton produces, then naturally he’s hitting home runs and stealing bases. He has five and nine, respectively, thus far. He could end up 15-25 or 20-30.

In those leagues in which he’s been dropped, it’s a good time to take a shot. Why wouldn’t you, just in case this turns out to be something large … or medium … or even small but useful? You can probably still get in on the sub-$10 floor in leagues with a $100 free-agent budget. Those in NL-only leagues may want to nibble, come to an inquiry about him indirectly, too see if they can still acquire him at a discount.

SS Brad Miller, Seattle Mariners

Ownership: CBS 32% | Yahoo! 29% | ESPN 3.8%

Eno and I talked about him on Tuesday in the podcast. Miller hasn’t made drastic changes to his preparation or something, at least that have been reported. But he’s gradually corrected flaws in his plate discipline, particularly on swings outside the zone. The improvement has had a noticeably positive effect on his rates of walks and strikeouts.

Brad Miller BB Percentage

Brad Miller K Percentage

Miller has started to see better results, too. From May 16 forward, he’s batted .250/.385/.344 in 40 plate appearances. He homered on June 1 for the first time since April 11.

Just as good of an endorsement is the M’s decision to option Nick Franklin to Triple-A Tacoma. The switch-hitting middle infielder continues to disappoint at the major league level in his limited opportunities. As Eno put it, Miller appears to have weathered the storm.

For the rest of the season, Miller could produce something like a .250/.325/.400 slash line, with double-digit round-trippers and something approaching the same in stolen bases. He’s capable of more, but we may be false prophets, too. Don’t let your expectation get carried away and set you up for disappointment. Still, those numbers play in deep mixed leagues (15-team, as well as 12-team with 23-man lineups), especially those with OBP instead of AVG.

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Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.

12 Responses to “Mixed League Waiver Wire: B.J. Upton, Brad Miller”

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  1. Kevin says:

    Presently my OF consists of Braun, Aoki, Willingham, Quentin and Zobrist (alternatively I could move Zobrist to 2B, putting Bonifacio in the OF.
    My bench has Colby Rasmus and Wil Venable. I’ve about lost patience with Venable and have been toying with dropping him for BJ Upton for 2 weeks.
    Do you think Venable can regain last year’s stroke, or am I better off betting on Upton?
    Thank you.

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    • Nicholas Minnix says:

      I thought you were right on track when you asked about your catcher situation. I don’t have as much belief in Venable. I’d rather take the shot on Upton.

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  2. Ben WMD says:

    Thinking of dropping the relatively boring safety of Fowler for Upton in an OBP league. What say you?

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    • Andrew says:

      Upton hasn’t posted an OBP north of .300 since 2011. I’m not sure he plays better in that format than standard leagues. Fowler has a career .366 OBP, with stronger marks than that in each of the last three seasons. Unless you really need some marginal category juice, that doesn’t sound like an upgrade to me.

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    • Mike Wimmer says:

      I wouldnt drop Fowler for Upton. I think Fowler should produce some very solid numbers going forward, he has Altuve and Springer ahead of him giving him solid RBI chances and behind him is Castro and Singleton. The Astros lineup is no longer that weak and I would much rather have the “safe” production of Fowler over the potential valley/crater production of Upton.

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    • Nicholas Minnix says:

      Siding with Andrew there. If this is a shallow league, say a 10-team mixed league with 23-man lineups or one of fewer players (estimation), then they’re both basically marginal players and it wouldn’t be a big deal if you made the swap. In that case, it depends on your needs, which you can start to consider a major driver of your moves.

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  3. Andrew says:

    Solarte or Miller as a bench bat to help fill-in on off days and in case of injuries in a standard 5×5? Miller is 2B/SS-eligible, while Solarte is 2B/SS/3B-eligible.

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  4. atoms says:

    I think you mean May 16th, not March.

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  5. IUPAC says:

    Drop De Aza for BMiller in a 16 team OBP league, for my last bench spot?

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    • Nicholas Minnix says:

      Tough one. I think because De Aza still has more HR/SB potential, I’d hang on, I prefer the counting stuff. Part of this depends on how easy depth is to come by at OF vs. SS in your league too, though.

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