Morse, LaRoche, and the Case of Too Many First Basemen
Going into the season, Davey Johnson, Mike Rizzo, and the rest of the Washington Nationals’ decision makers certainly expected to get strong production from their first basemen and that’s exactly what happened. Nationals’ first basemen combined to hit .285/.355/.547 with 40 HR, 118 RBI, and even a single, solitary stolen base. That .902 OPS was the third highest mark in baseball behind the Tigers — the honorable Prince Fielder presiding — and the Reds pair of Joey Votto and Todd Frazier, though the Nationals were the only team to break the 40 home run barrier. So all went exactly according to plan as Washington changed the old saying around to “first in war, first in peace, first in the NL East.”
Except it wasn’t nearly so simple as that.
The assumption throughout the offseason was that Michael Morse would make the lion’s share of starts at first as Adam LaRoche came back from a torn labrum that cost him nearly all of 2011. The injury doesn’t typically require nearly as much rehab time for hitters as it can for pitchers, but the belief that it could take LaRoche six to eight weeks worth of games to get back to his former level of production wouldn’t have been a bad one to make. Add in the fact that LaRoche is consistently a slow starter with an OPS over 120 points higher in the second half than in the first, and Morse moves from being the presumptive starter to one of the surer things in the Nationals’ lineup.
Morse, after all, wasn’t just a warm body that wasn’t notorious for painfully slow starts, he was coming off a season in which he hit .303/.360/.550 with 31 HR while starting more than half the Nationals’ games at first base. Unfortunately, a strained lat shelved Morse for the first two months of the season and thrust LaRoche into the Opening Day lineup. He went 0-for-3 with a walk and three strikeouts, playing perfectly into the narrative regarding his inability to hit before the All-Star break. The next day, LaRoche went 4-for-5 with his first home run, and the race to his best season ever was on. His first half slash line was .255/.340/.496, a solid improvement over his career first half line of .247/.326/.442 and he finished the season at .271/.343/.510 with 33 HR and precisely 100 RBI, making him Zach’s eighth best first baseman.
While LaRoche was proving wrong those who believed his best days were behind him, Morse’s season seemed to go in fits and starts. While his overall line of .291/.321/.470 with 18 HR and 62 RBI in 102 games is certainly livable, an August-long slump caused by some combination of hand, thumb, or wrist injuries muted his overall production. The fact that he didn’t go on the disabled list during that time also put owners in a bind as to whether they needed to bench him or try to ride out his issues. His strong September — .302/.330/.510 with 6 HR — was certainly an asset for the stretch run and will give owners a reason to target Morse for next season, though the fact that Morse made just a single appearance at first base this season means there will be some mental projection needed to see Morse as the Nats first baseman again next season.
Indeed, what seemed like an easy call to make heading into this season will be a something of a mess come February. LaRoche has a $10 million mutual option for next season, which he’ll almost certainly sign, leaving the Nationals to figure out whether they want him back at that price, whether they’ll let him seek fortune elsewhere, or whether they’ll let him hit free agency and try to negotiate a better deal. Morse, too, is under contract for next season already, though he could man the outfield with Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth if LaRoche does stay in D.C. Anthony Rendon is threatening to push Ryan Zimmerman off of third base, which could push Zimmerman into the first base mix. For redraft players, I can’t imagine this mass of humanity be much of an issue by the time drafts roll around, but for keeper players looking to slot Morse in as their 1B, be cautious as that option may not be available depending on what the Nationals choose to do with LaRoche.
What makes you think LaRoche will accept his side of the mutual option? Everything I’m hearing is exactly the opposite- the Nats will exercise and he will decline since he can certainly get a better deal in free agent market
LaRoche wants to continue to play for DC, and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they decided to offer him a 2/20 – 2/25 contract to keep him there. Unless they’re willing to take on the craziness of Hamilton, no CF free agent or trade candidate will come close to the kind of production that LaRoche is capable of.
LaRoche is NOT going to accept his option and the Nationals know that. They are currently in negotiations–well, at least discussions–that should bring him back for 2-3 more years.
I think you’re being a little hard on Morse’s production though you do acknowledge his injuries.
Based upon playing 153 games (typical for a full season less a few off days) he would have hit .291-27-93. Take away his injuries and most would say that was very similar to his breakout 2011 season.
Rizzo has made it clear that Zimmerman is his long-term third baseman. His defense is better than David Wright’s. Only his throwing has been a problem and he will be having shoulder surgery to correct his throwing problems this off-season.
Rendon is likely to become the Nationals next second baseman (2014?) if Espinosa doesn’t figure it out. That said, he is one of the finest fielding second baseman in the NL, has good power and speed, and you need just to look across the bag to see what happens when a player “figures it out.”
Many of us Nationals’ fans wanted to trade Desmond last winter, move Espinosa to short (his natural position) and let Stephen Lombardozzi have second.
All Desmond did was make the All Star team this year.
I think Espinosa can figure it out, and then would be valuable as a trade piece next off season, giving second to Rendon, someone capable of hitting .310-25-100 at second.
Without question, the top of the 9th against the Cardinals was painful, but everyone is returning next season (except Edwin Jackson probably) and the minor leagues has 5-6 top-flight players ready to join the team by 2014 or early 2015.
Don’t feel bad for the Nationals. They should be contenders for the next half-decade at least.
Rendon doesn’t influence anything until 2014 at the most optimistic.
If the Nats bring back LaRoche isn’t that going to hurt the defense? Seems I keep reading that they want to move Morse back to 1B, move Harper to the corner and get a defensive CF that could possibly lead off (Bourn). I thought Morse was a 1B masquerading as a LF?