My LABR Mixed League Team
First off, thanks to everyone who gave me their suggestions on who to select first overall and provided strategy advice when I asked you all to help me win the inaugural LABR mixed league. We held the draft on Sat. night and it was great to already get back into the swing of the fantasy season. I have never drafted this early, so having a fantasy team before March begins is exciting! Though as expected there were several times where my player was taken literally right before my pick, I am very pleased with how my team turned out.
Typically in every league I participate in, it’s the same old story for my teams. I go offense heavy and either spend relatively little on pitching (auction leagues) or take my first starter later than all or most other owners. I didn’t have this exact idea in my head before the draft, but soon into it, I realized more than ever that I was going to wait, wait, wait on pitching and ensure my offense is dominating. I ended up being the 14th (out of 15) team to draft a starting pitcher.
Now for the roster unveiling:
Player Team Rd
C Matt Wieters BAL R5 P1
C Nick Hundley SD R18 P15
1B Albert Pujols ANA R1 P1
3B David Wright NYM R2 P15
CI Paul Goldschmidt ARI R9 P1
2B Dustin Ackley SEA R12 P15
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI R6 P15
MI Ryan Raburn DET R20 P15
OF Matt Holliday STL R3 P1
OF Carl Crawford BOS R4 P15
OF Alex Gordon KC R7 P1
OF Nick Markakis BAL R10 P15
OF Lorenzo Cain KC R16 P15
Util Ben Revere MIN R19 P1
SP Michael Pineda NYY R8 P15
SP Jaime Garcia STL R11 P1
SP Chris Sale CHW R15 P1
SP Daniel Bard BOS R17 P1
SP Johan Santana NYM R21 P1
SP Homer Bailey CIN R22 P15
SP Edinson Volquez SD R23 P1
RP Andrew Bailey BOS R13 P1
RP Frank Francisco NYM R14 P15
Reserve:
OF Jerry Sands LA R24 P15
RP Brian Fuentes OAK R25 P1
RP Wilton Lopez HOU R26 P15
SP Felipe Paulino KC R27 P1
RP Aaron Crow KC R28 P15
3B Jimmy Paredes HOU R29 P1
Thoughts on Offense:
Surprise! I drafted Pujols first. I was pretty sure he would appear at the top of my dollar values and I was right. However, it was much closer than I expected. I valued Braun barely less and Kemp right beneath him, followed by a small drop to Cabrera. However, at first overall, I was absolutely not taking Kemp coming off a career season, and only one year removed from going just 28/19 and hitting .249. Way too much risk to be taken first overall. I considered Braun, but couldn’t think of any reason to take him instead of Pujols considering I valued him less and I think there’s a bit more upside to my Pujols projection than Braun.
I know many are clamoring for Cabrera first with potential third base eligibility, but if you play with a corner infield position, you would use 1B/3B as your replacement level, meaning Cabrera doesn’t truly gain any value at all. Statistically, he is clearly inferior to Pujols, so the third base eligibility, which isn’t even guaranteed, is really the only argument. I think the multi-position eligiblity helps, though that’s hard to place a value on of course. I just don’t think third base eligibility specifically changes his value.
At catcher, I was totally sure I would draft Ryan Doumit. That was foolish though as Ray Murphy of Baseball HQ is in the league and their projections are even better than mine! So he scooped him up at a time I thought I could continue waiting. ADP seriously goes out the window when drafting with experts. I ended up with Nick Hundley after targeting many catchers earlier just to see them drafted right before my selection. In fact, I was all set to take Salvador Perez in the 18th round, but alas, that thief Tom Trudeau of Bloomberg Sports stole him the pick before mine.
I was ecstatic to have gotten David Wright with the 30th overall pick. He should be healthy now and with the fences coming in, he’s a potential first round value. At corner, I figured I would get Ike Davis since I valued him much earlier than his ADP. But again, these are experts for a reason! My friend Tim Heaney of KFFL took him four picks before my turn. So I ended up with the consolation prize of Goldschmidt, who isn’t all that different from Davis, but should also chip in high single-digit steals. I just pray he doesn’t lose playing time to Lyle Overbay.
I don’t necessarily like Ackley any more than anyone else, so I am surprised I ended up with him. I thought he would have gone earlier too to be honest. Just a case of a second baseman near the top of my values at a time when I needed one. And hey, he gained 10 pounds of muscle in the off-season! I decided on Raburn at MI as my other choices were boring player A or boring player B, most of which provided little power and maybe 20 steals. I had more than enough steals, so chose the guy with the most power potential. He is supposed to be the starting second baseman in Detroit, so if he can actually hold the job all year and reach 500 at-bats, he’ll be a steal and maybe hit 20+ homers.
In the outfield, I don’t know what to think of Crawford. Someone in the draft room thanked me for taking him as he sat at the top of the default rankings at the time and this particular owner couldn’t keep looking at his name. Others thought it was good value at pick 60. I am thinking that along with Wright, here is another guy who has shown first round value ability in the past and will still be just 30 years old this season. There was just too much profit potential to pass him up, even with the question marks surrounding his wrist, and of course last year’s disappointing performance.
Thoughts on Pitching:
Wow! This is the type of staff I dream about. Or have nightmares about. Talk about high risk, high reward, this is what happens when you wait until the end of round 8 in a 15 team league to draft your first starter. And it’s a starter with question marks of his own, moving out of the cozy confines of SAFECO and into a bandbox in the AL East!
After realizing early on how little ADP has helped, I couldn’t wait any longer and made sure I snagged one of my favorite pitching sleepers in Sale. Good timing too, as another owner said it was his next pick. Since I apparently wanted to corner the market on relievers turned starters, I also went with Bard and Crow (as a reserve pick).
I am cautiously excited about the pick of Santana. I had no idea I would end up with him, but in the 21st round, I noticed his name surrounded by a bunch of low strikeout, boring pitchers and knew it was a great opportunity to take the chance. Word is he may even be the Mets opening day starter, so he could pay huge dividends for my team for as long as he remains healthy. Yes, I am still a member of the Edinson Volquez Support Group. Seriously, if he can’t pitch in PETCO, then it’s time to find a new profession.
On reserve, I took fliers in Fuentes and Lopez, thinking the former may open the season as the Athletics closer and the latter would compete with Brandon Lyon and David Carpenter for Astros closing duties.
So yeah, that pitching staff may look absolutely terrible to many or the epitome of excitement to others. There is tons of upside (and risk!) and nearly all of them are strong strikeout pitchers. I would much rather be in a position to have to improve my pitching than my hitting during the season. As it stands now, I think my staff is just fine. Not the best, mind you, but good enough when paired with that offense.
Overall:
Mock Draft Central spits out projected standings after the draft based on projections from Rotowire. They should obviously be taken with a grain of salt for several reasons. One issue relates to injury prone players who are projected for fewer than 500 at-bats. Obviously, if the player is injured, you will replace him, but the projected standings cannot possibly take this into account, which hurts your counting stat projections. Simiarlyl, for guys like Sale and Bard who might be shut down after reaching an innings cap, the projections assume I won’t be using any other pitcher in their slots when that happens. That hurts my wins and strikeout projections.
Caveats aside, I thought they were entertaining. It projects me for the best offense in the league, with 64 out of 75 possible points. That’s awesome and at least makes me feel good that I accomplished my goal of drafting the top offense…at least according to Rotowire’s projections. Then I laughed when moving my eyes over to the pitching categories. 11 points. Out of 75. Woohoo! Too funny. A 2.0 in WHIP and 1.0 in ERA. That’s cool, we’ll just have to see how much work I’ll really need to do on my staff during the year.
You can check out the full draft here.
Read 2011 Tout Wars mixed league champion Fred Zinkie’s recap on MLB.com.
Way too much risk and not enough reward in your pitching staff IMO.
I like Pineda and Garcia, both very solid. Sale and Bard are huge risks. Bard hasn’t been a starter since ’07 and he was awful then. Sale has more upside but is still probably going to be limited by innings.
Johan is a huge question mark. Pitchers coming back from his injury have not fared well historically.
Bailey has some nice upside, but cannot be relied on either.
Volquez has some bounceback in him for sure, especially in Petco. But the walks still kill him, and he hasn’t been effective in years.
Paulino is a decent sleeper, but with this raggedy staff you would have been well served to stock the bench with some more lottery tickets.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you got barely 1,000 innings out of your projected starting 7 SP’s.
The offense looks solid, but I don’t think it’s gonna be enough to carry you.
We’ll agree to disagree on the “not enough reward”. You are right that clearly they are risky, but I think they all have lots of upside, and given how late I drafted each of those risky pitchers, they were cheap gambles to take given their underlying peripherals.
Agree about Johan, but again, he was a 21st rd pick! When else can you get a pitcher in the 21st rd who has that type of upside?
It’s much easier to buy pitchers low during the season or find out of nowhere guys than offense. I feel more comfortable doing that as well, so rather than draft a good staff and an offense that could use some help, I feel much, much better doing the opposite. Of course, a balanced team would have worked, but against experts, a balanced team likely means doing the same as everyone else and having just an average squad.
Individually, I can see plenty of reason for some of your pitcher choices.
Collectively, I think there is too much risk in your portfolio.
I just think it might have been wise to say a gavin floyd type or 2. Someone who will give you innings and post usable numbers, just to anchor your risk a bit.
I think the odds are more likely your staff is decimated by injury/ineffectiveness then you hit the upside on 3 or 4 of Sale, Bard, Bailey, Johan, Paulino, Volquez.
Then again, who knows? I’d be curious to see your projections for these guys. And of course, maybe you’re an in-season wizard and you play the wire extremely well. This staff would make me so nervous though, I’d be looking to deal for an ace right now just to provide some stability.
Ehh, I can pick up a Floyd type from free agency during the season, or easily buy low on someone like him. Much rather draft a higher upside guy and worry about filling in during the season.
Yeah, it’s unlikely all those guys you named hit it big, but considering how many I collected, some should breakout. Well, hopefully. I’m certainly no in-season wiz with pickups because I tend to wait more than just 1 start to pounce on a player, and by then, he’s already gobbled up.
ERA projections:
Sale- 3.49
Bard- 3.69
Bailey- 3.95
Johan- mid-3.00s I think (my spreadsheet version at work isn’t complete), but he’s a real crapshoot
Paulino- slightly over 4.00 I believe, also not on this version
Volquez- same deal as Paulino
I don’t think any of the projections are overly optimistic, though that’s clearly not a great staff. Better though than I’m sure would be assumed by most typical projection systems.
I was going to say that you probably could have gotten a better reliever than Francisco but looking at the full draft it doesn’t look like it. Look at how early Betancourt went! I hope none of my league mates see that. I feel like you have kind of an all-or-nothing team. Even on offense a lot of your guys have more than the average number of question marks. That said, I think picks like Wright and Crawford are great values. Great values with higher than normal variance, though.
I was shocked when Betancourt was picked. He is the type of closer I typically end up with- little experience, but highly skilled. Usually these types are several undervalued…but not in an experts league!
Yeah, it is clear that my draft is going for the win or in the cellar. In an experts league, I think you have to do that. On offense, I am proud of myself for getting young, upside guys, because typically I end up with undervalued older veterans.
The offense is solid (seriously, Paul Goldschmidt at CI in a 15 teamer & David Wright with the 30th pick stand out) but I agree that the pitching here is particularly risky. I like Homer Bailey the most of the motley crew following Michael Pineda & Jaime Garcia, but there is at least some boom potential present. I can’t fathom drafting Matt Wieters that early (even in a massive format), but I don’t think a ton of real life growth potential exists.
If you check out the draft results, Napoli was taken in the second round, and other top catchers early as well. Catchers were actually valued properly. Once again, experts!
When I took Wieters, I had no plan to draft him or even take a catcher at that spot. But when I was looking at my list, I still didn’t want to take a starter and I had little interest in any other hitters at that point. So it was Wieters by default.
I actually kinda like the staff, or at least its potential, not the highest on Pineda but he should be at least more consistent this yr from 1st to 2nd half, with more win opptys. Garcia seems to be the type who willl always be under rated bc he doesnt K 200, if 1 of Bard or Sale takes off, you can replace the other. Also like the upsides of Edison, Bailey and Johan. Also, I like Bailey Fransico as a late combo of closers, think ast the end of the year Fransico could be a big value pick of closers, always had loads of potential, flashes it sometimes, great 2nd half, first time in NL and pitchers park (Tor/Tex),
Also, I think some readers may look at the staff and say its terrible bc on my online espn 10 team mix league, I have verlander, lee, Bumgartner, Darvish Cain, Luebke, Zimmermann, Kimbrel, papelbon and Motte. But 15 team, with 15 extremely knowledgable owners you never how the draft will go and ESPECIALLY picking at a turn.
I like it. You can survive 2-3 flameouts on the pitchers so long as a couple guys produce value well above where they were drafted. And with high K rates I think this group has really high potential upside. The trick will be seeing if you can replace the flameouts off the wire. I’m a bit concerned that so many other teams have stockpiled young arms. Hopefully some of these will get dropped early in the season if they don’t make rotations or have bad Aprils.
Anyway with your offense if it doesn’t work out you’ll be able to trade for an arm.
I just can’t help but think that innings are gonna be a huge issue. Ok, so maybe Sale and Bard do give you solid peripherals…….over/under innings on those two?
Johan can’t be projected for more than 120 IP can he?
Bailey is easily your best bet for breakout, and I do like him.
I guess gl. Are you going to be providing updates during the season?
My reserve roster will turn over quickly and be able to provide me with 2 start guys to switch in, and also hopefully can quickly pick up some guys with FAAB. Jimmy Paredes can easily be dropped, I only drafted him because there was literally no one at the end and he’s young and has some steal potential at 3rd base. But i’m not attached to him by any means. Also, for the two closer candidates, it might be obvious by the time the season starts that they won’t be closing and so they become easily droppable.
I don’t really have to worry abut the reliever turned starters innings since they will prob pitch on normal rest and just get capped at the end of the season. When that happens, I’ll just drop them and pick up someone else to fill in.
Yes, I will be providing updates throughout the year.
Great offense, but man, that is one ugly pitching staff!
Leaving aside the Wieters pick – as you already explained it – I would have taken Wainwright or Moore instead of Gordon. The ripple effect would be to grab another OF instead of one of your RPs in rounds 13-15.
Ashton Kutcher says: “Don’t you mean ‘the butterfly effect’?”
The easiest thing to pick up in fantasy baseball is stolen bases off the wire….and that’s the one thing this team went overboard on statistically. If you’re building a dominant offense, I would want to have a great projected batting average. I see a lot of hitters who have a “?” next to their projected average.
One of the keys to building consistent winning teams in fantasy is being able to find value during a draft, and adapt your draft strategy to acquire said value. Planning to wait on pitching before the draft begins prevents you from grabbing any SP values early.
I love this kind of team. The offense rocks, and the pitching has more potential in a 15-teamer than a lot of people realize. I guess my only caveat would be that I’d love this team more in NFBC than LABR, for two reasons. 1) This is the perfect kind of team to compete for a big OA prize, as if guys like Sale or Bard or Volquez come through big, you are going to have a great offense. To win an OA prize, you need pitching upside. In a league without an OA prize, I’d be a little more risk adverse, even though I think the team you’ve drafted should be one of the favorites to win the league, since you’d be unlikely to finish mid-pack. 2) Trading ruins drafts like this. There is no real penalty for ignoring balance and say, loading up on pitching. Because the guy who does that can trade for power/speed from another team that is also unbalanced in those areas. That really takes a lot of the skill out of the draft, IMO. Finally, I don’t completely agree with the “this is super expert tag” so ADP doesn’t matter theme. I think there are a lot of good NFBC players who could outdraft half of these teams. Alex Gordon slipping to 91? A team drafting Verlander, Greinke, Papelbon, and then Darvish in the 8th? Trading definitely affects this, but I think their are a lot more “experts” than some of these. One reason ADP goes out of the window is a lot of it is based on early drafts and non-money drafts. And another reason is ADP considers balance, while this is a league that allows trades.
Anyway… nice job. I like your team.
Welp…..Bard’s been awful and most likely it headed to the pen. At least between Andrew Bailey and Bard you’ll get all the Sox saves.
Wright’s hurt, Craw’s hurt.
At least Johan looks good…..he might be your best pitcher