Neftali Feliz to the Rotation: Will He Shine Under the Texas Sun?

It looks like moving relievers into the rotation has been the trend of the off-season. Last week, I tried to forecast White Sox pitcher Chris Sale‘s performance as a starter next season. With the news that the Rangers have signed Joe Nathan to be their closer, incumbent closer Neftali Feliz becomes the flavor of the day in reliever-turned-starter land. Will his transition go as smoothly as rotation-mate C.J. Wilson‘s did, who made the switch in 2010, or will he wilt under the Texas sun with the heavier workload?

Though on the surface Feliz had another fantastic season as the Rangers stopper, his skills truly took a tumble. His K% plunged 19%, while his BB% jumped 78% and he continued to allow a ton of fly balls. This all led to SIERA/xFIP marks near the 4.00 level and an xFIP- of 105.

There is some good news, however. His velocity remained stable and his SwStk% and ClStk% only declined slightly. Basically, if he would have remained in the bullpen, it would have been easy to project his strikeout rate to rebound. Control was also a problem, but this time a drop in F-Strike% backs up the increased walk rate. Though he had posted excellent walk rates during his first two seasons with the Rangers, he struggled with his control at several minor league levels, so this problem just reared its ugly head again, rather than manifested itself suddenly. That’s a positive, I think, as it is always tougher to try to explain sudden changes in skill level. Though his career BB/9 still remains about league average, I would estimate that he’s currently closer to a true talent level a bit higher than that, as his 2009-2010 BB/9 rates were much lower than his F-Strike% marks would have suggested.

So now let’s try to figure out what Feliz may do in the rotation. As discussed in the Sale article, starters typically lose two to three miles per hour off their fastball after making the conversion from a reliever. Feliz averaged 96.3 MPH with his fastball the last two years, so he still should end up averaging around 94.0 miles per hour, which is excellent. Next, let’s assume that Feliz’s K% would have rebounded to around 25% next year. Since pitchers lose about 15%-20% of their K% upon moving from the bullpen into the rotation, Feliz is looking at a strikeout rate of around 8.0.

Along with a K/9 decline, Feliz’s BB% and BB/9 should improve as well. Applying the same 15%-20% drop to an expected 2012 walk rate as a reliever (let’s go with 3.4) gives us a rate around 2.8. His batted ball profile may change as he has thrown around 80% fastballs the last two seasons. Obviously, that is not going to happen as a starter. This could increase his ground ball rate a bit, which will be important in the summer heat. Still, he will remain a fly ball pitcher, but maybe not as extreme as he was as a reliever.

Since I enjoy looking at other pitchers with comparable skill sets to give us a better picture of what kind of pitcher Feliz may be, I found Tom Gorzelanny in 2011 (I know, I know) as almost an identical match. His SIERA was 3.68, which sounds like a very reasonable projected ERA for Feliz. Between he and Sale though, I do prefer Sale, as his strikeout rate may be a bit better, and he has a huge advantage in ground ball rate. He should also come cheaper, which is another plus.




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Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

6 Responses to “Neftali Feliz to the Rotation: Will He Shine Under the Texas Sun?”

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  1. Aaron says:

    Can I ask how Neftali Feliz and Tom Gorzelanny have similar skill-sets? Gorzelanny is left-handed, Neftali Feliz is right-handed.

    Their 2011 avg pitch speed and % thrown according to fangraphs.com

    Gorzelanny
    Fastball 89.6 mph 62.5 %
    Slider 80.0 mph 18.4 %
    Curveball 74.4 mph 0.3%
    Changeup 83.2 mph 18.8%

    Feliz
    Fastball 96.3 mph 79.8%
    Slider 85.6 4.8%
    Curveball 78.7 mph 11.2%
    Changeup 88.6 mph 4.2 %

    Feliz throws with higher velocity by a fairly large amount with every pitch, and relied heavily on his fastball, and rarely relied on his slider or changeup last year throwing either one 9% of pitches thrown. Gorzelanny on the other hand, relied fairly heavily on his slider AND change up throwing them a whopping 37.2 % which is a fairly high discrepancy between pitch speed, and pitches thrown which I would believe falls under the category of skill set…

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    • Mike Podhorzer says:

      When I use the term “skill set”, I am referring to strikeout, walk and ground ball rates. It’s a term used by the Baseball Forecaster/Baseball HQ, and I have been conditioned to use it in that sense. Sorry if it was unclear!

      But yes, the 2 pitchers get to their results in completely different ways, but my Feliz projection for his underlying peripherals seem eerily similar to what Gorzelanny posted this past season. It’s an easy way to come up with a ball park ERA projection.

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  2. Anthony says:

    Would I be nuts to keep Feliz at $15 in my roto league? We get $280 total to spend on players in this 11 team league.

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  3. JD says:

    Am I crazy to expect big upside from Feliz?

    He has shown lights out flashes already in his brief career and was a very highly rated prospect coming through the Braves/Rangers system.

    I see a ridonk power arm and other successful transitions on his own team (Wilson, Ogando) who had inferior stuff overall.

    I am buying.

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  4. Josh Shepardson says:

    I won’t link to the article, because I think that’s a weak move in commentary, but I used Brandon Morrow as a comp for Neftali Feliz. Comps are tough because every player develops differently, but given repertoire, and handling, there might be something to gain from looking at the progression of Morrow.

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  5. Josh Shepardson says:

    Oh, and I’d like to add, solid article. I was unaware of what percentage of strikeouts the typical reliever converted to starter lost.

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