NL OF Projections: Steamer vs. the Fans

I have never thought much about, or given much attention to, FanGraphs’ fan projections. It’s primarily a matter of stubbornness: I run my own projections, and I develop my own strategy, so why should I listen to you? At least there’s a trace of rationale behind it: I know how I created my projections (whether or not they’re any good is a topic for another day), but I have no idea how you created yours. Thus, I am more likely to blindly trust a computer-generated projection system such as Steamer instead of random fan projections.

Still, there is a sort of bizarre, secondhand wisdom to fan projections. For every person who is high on a particular player, there could be another person who is equally-and-oppositely down on him. Solicit and aggregate enough fan projections and you could produce a very reasonable prediction of a player’s performance by sheer chance.

Which is why fan projections intrigue me. If, for example, Steamer predicts the most likely outcome from a wide range of possible outcomes for a player, then the fans convey the anticipated outcome for a player. The difference between them, you could say, is what amounts to a market inefficiency (aka a price distortion). The larger the difference, the greater the inefficiency. We see these inefficiencies arise every year — 2014’s most prevalent example is probably Corey Kluber — and they typically manifest because of a lack of information about certain players.

Not coincidentally, the National League outfield-eligible hitters who are the subjects of this post don’t have a lot of MLB experience — that is, they don’t provide us a whole lot of information. There are a great number of discrepancies between Steamer and fan projections;  I will highlight and evaluate some of the largest. It’s important to note that the purpose of this exercise is to simply identify players whose value may be mismeasured, ultimately leading to your possible pursuit (or avoidance) of them on draft day. FYI: The number “(#)” next to “Fans” indicates how many fans submitted custom projections for the player.

Arismendy Alcantara, CHC
Steamer: 8 HR, 10 SB, 61 R+RBI, .237/.283/.383 in 301 PA
Fans (28): 14 HR, 20 SB, 111 R+RBI, .256/.306/.416 in 526 PA

On a per-plate-appearance basis, the fans are not far off from Steamer, projecting only a couple more stolen bases. What it really comes down to is playing time, and the offseason acquisitions of Dexter Fowler and Chris Denorfia have left Alcantara without a starting outfield role. Meanwhile, the infield is more impacted, rendering Alcantara’s second-base eligibility momentarily useless. If Javier Baez falters in spring training, which is certainly possible, he could end up gift-wrapping the second-base job for someone else while he develops at Triple-A. But that someone else could end up being Tommy La Stella, who is already known for his sound approach at the plate — something Alcantara cannot personally claim. There’s talk about him filling a utility role for Joe Maddon, and that’s inspiring — the multipositional eligibility is appealing — but he still isn’t a lock for a wandering starting gig given his 31-percent strikeout rate in 300 plate appearances last year. For reasons predicated mostly on playing time, I have to side with the computer. Verdict: Steamer / Assessment: Overvalued by fans

Joc Pederson, LAD
Steamer: 21 HR, 18 SB, 127 R+RBI, .224/.310/.391 in 581 PA
Fans (25): 17 HR, 20 SB, 133 R+RBI, .261/.361/.439 in 510 PA

The fans are higher on Pederson, although they expect more speed than power and are perhaps giving Andre Ethier too much credit. Or maybe it’s Steamer that’s overestimating how much Ethier’s mammoth contract will splinter the dugout benches this season. Who knows. Unfortunately, my projection for Pederson is split almost perfectly down the middle of Steamer and the fans (per 600 PA). However, it’s difficult for me to trust a hitter who, despite showing a propensity to absolutely rake, saw his strikeout increase by more than 10 percentage points across three Minor League levels. To expect Pederson to best his Triple-A strikeout rate of 26.9 percent in his first full trip through the MLB is not unheard of, but it’s a tall order for a guy whose plate discipline has worsened as the competition improved. I’m very high on Pederson, and I think he has a very bright future ahead despite his strikeout rate (a la George Springer). But I think it will weigh down his value a bit and may make him the victim of a prolonged slump or two. Verdict: Steamer / Assessment: Overvalued by fans

Josh Harrison, PIT
Steamer: 12 HR, 18 SB, 127 R+RBI, .278/.315/.422 in 590 PA
Fans (26): 10 HR, 17 SB, 137 R+RBI, .283/.322/.402 in 643 PA

The fans have some faith in Harrison’s breakout, but not as much as Steamer does. (The lines look almost identical, but Steamer expects Harrison to hit a home run every 49 plate appearances, versus the fans’ 64, as well as steal more frequently.) Jeff Zimmerman looked for breakout seasons comparable to Harrison’s, and the list was underwhelming, to say the least. I can’t attest to how other projection systems operate, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t attribute the most weight, even if only marginally, to a player’s most recent season, and his most recent season could be a flash in the pan (although I acknowledge it wouldn’t be the first time a player broke out at age 26). Steamer and the fans expect the babip to regress toward his current career rate of .313, but if it returns to his pre-2014 career rate of .275, his value would plummet. The evidence Harrison can do what he did in 2014 is 2014; the evidence he probably can’t do it again is every year prior to 2014. I think single-digit home runs and a sub-.250 batting average is not out of the question. Verdict: Fans, reluctantly / Assessment: Overvalued by Steamer

Christian Yelich, MIA
Steamer: 14 HR, 20 SB, 141 R+RBI, .270/.344/.434 in 676 PA
Fans (19): 12 HR, 25 SB, 172 R+RBI, .292/.366/.419 in 688 PA

Yelich is enigmatic in that he has what I consider an absurd batted ball profile given his talent. Aptly dubbed Worm Killer by Mike Podhorzer, Yelich notched a meager 18-percent fly ball rate along with a 61-percent ground ball rate. That’s kind of crazy, but he makes a lot of hard contact, and his line-drive swing should help him sustain a remarkable babip (although expecting a return to 2013’s .380 is asking a lot). Meanwhile, his plate discipline has improved all around: from 2013 to 2014, Yelich improved his swing rate on outside pitches and his contact rates both in and out of the zone, per PITCHf/x data.

With that said, I can’t, in good faith, guarantee Yelich will clear fences to the tune of double digits, not because he doesn’t have the power but because he simply doesn’t elevate the ball. My projection expects 12 home runs as well, but that comes at the heels of a continued increase in his fly ball rate — an outcome that’s not out of the question, but also far from a lock. Moreover, the average hitter’s aging curve for stolen bases is unfavorable, as a player’s peak rate in stolen base attempts typically comes in his debut, holding all else constant (such as a manager’s philosophy regarding baserunning, or a player suddenly given a green light, like Todd Frazier). Therefore, I’m inclined to take the absolute under on the power and speed, and politely split the difference between the counting and rate stats. Verdict: Draw / Assessment: Overvalued by both, in HR and SB





Two-time FSWA award winner, including 2018 Baseball Writer of the Year, and 8-time award finalist. Featured in Lindy's magazine (2018, 2019), Rotowire magazine (2021), and Baseball Prospectus (2022, 2023). Biased toward a nicely rolled baseball pant.

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OnSight
9 years ago

Do you really think Denorfia will getting ABs over Alcantara?