On Justin Upton
A player with a lot of hype surrounding him after the numbers he put up last year, Justin Upton has been a bit of a disappointment this year. Before the year began, some fantasy guru’s were projecting the ever elusive 30-30 from Upton, hoping that his raw skills would shine through and get him to that promised land. It hasn’t happened, to say the least. Upton’s numbers have dropped off in every standard category, hurting owners who pounced on him early in drafts.
Upton’s biggest problem this year has been the strikeouts. Because he had always struck out more than an average player, we knew this could happen, but a K% over the 30% mark is scary. While his K% has risen, his Whiff% has fallen, a strange occurrence. Upton has actually done a better job making contact this year, and while he may be letting too many pitches go by, I’d say he’s in for a lowered K-rate next year.
While he’s struggled with the K’s, he could still be one of a handful of players that could end up in the 20-20 club this year. It’s going to take a small surge over these next couple of weeks, but Upton could do it and no one would be surprised. What worries me is his success rate on the basepaths, as it’s dropped all the way down to 68%. Obviously, that needs to improve next year.
Could his down year be a great thing for future owners? Definitely. He could easily bounce back next season, and put up numbers closer to his 2009 campaign. I’m thinking he’ll end the 2011 season with a .285/25/18 line, which is impressive, but not overly so. I don’t think predictions of a 30-30 season were off base, but they may have been a tad optimistic. Temper your expectations when it comes to Upton’s 2011, but don’t forget the promise he’s shown and the potential he has.
Hopefully the shoulder issue isn’t the same as BJ’s, but I wonder if it’s genetic and if Justin will have to undergo surgery at some point as well.
Wow, really going out on a limb with that projection.
That’s why I get the big bucks.
Interesting.
.285/25/18? Really?
So you’re telling me that you’d pick Drew Stubbs, Chris Young, Jayson Werth, or Hunter Pence over Justin Upton in a draft next year? All those players had better stats this year than the bogus .285/25/18 line you just threw out, and other than Werth, they all still have room for growth next year.
Man, I’d love to play in a league with you.
If you are wrong will you come back and admit it?
You do realize that Upton is younger than all 4 of those guys… right?
Tom B… That’s exactly my point. While those guys are putting up 285/25/18 type seasons and still improving (except for Werth), Upton is more talented than all of them– with even more room for improvement.
Sanders on the other hand, is pretty much insinuating that he’d take all of those guys over Upton in a fantasy draft next year, which is simply ludicrous.
It’s unfair to say I would draft Upton after those guys, because you don’t know my projections for the others.
I don’t think it’s particularly “ludicrous” to rank Werth, Pence, or Chris Young ahead of Justin Upton next year. Stubbs isn’t really in the same league because of his AVG issues…. but all of the guys mentioned were once stud prospects as well (especially Chris Young).
Now, obviously Justin Upton is in another league in terms of “raw tools” and “prospect hype-itude”, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Upton is 3rd or 4th out of those 5 guys in fantasy value next year. “Room for improvement” doesn’t always translate into results, you don’t to look much farther than Justin Upton, 2010.
Do you even read the injury report? He has no shot at 20-20 this year as he has been shut down for the season. He wasn’t even wit the team on a daily basis when you published this.
They dont actually pay you right?