Opening Day Fantasy Predictions

At the conclusion of any season, there will be no shortage of people telling you they “knew” something unexpected was going to happen. Of course these people are incredibly silent before events have unfurled. So, I want to put down in writing a fantasy prediction for each major league team. Each of these predictions will go against the grain of conventional wisdom, since there is no point in predicting that Adam Dunn will hit a lot of HR or Mariano Rivera will notch a lot of Saves.

Arizona – Justin Upton hits under .280

Atlanta – Derek Lowe produces less fantasy value than Oliver Perez

Baltimore – Nick Markakis hits 25 HR

Boston – Tim Wakefield has an ERA over 5

Chicago (A) – Gavin Floyd notches 15 Wins

Chicago (N) – Ryan Dempster has a K/9 under 7.25

Cincinnati – Jay Bruce hits .275

Cleveland – Tony Sipp takes over as closer

Colorado – Jorge de la Rosa posts an ERA under 4.00

Detroit – Miguel Cabrera fails to reach 30 HR

Florida – Jorge Cantu tops 23 HR

Houston – Felipe Paulino puts up a more valuable fantasy season than Bud Norris

Kansas City – Mike Aviles records double digits in both HR and SB

Los Angeles (A) – Bobby Abreu has more HR than SB

Los Angeles (N) – Rafael Furcal hits over .280

Milwaukee – Rickie Weeks hits 20 HR

Minnesota – Orlando Hudson hits under .265

New York (A) – Derek Jeter fails to hit .300

New York (N) – David Wright tops 25 HR

Oakland – Daric Barton hits at least .275

Philadelphia – Chase Utley combines for fewer than 200 Runs and RBIs

Pittsburgh – Lastings Milledge hits 15 HR

San Diego – Jon Garland posts an ERA under 3.75

San Francisco – Bengie Molina fails to hit 15 HR

Seattle – Casey Kotchman reaches 15 HR

St. Louis – Mark DeRosa (ADP 228) outearns Chipper Jones (ADP 132) Kyle Lohse will top 12 Wins

Tampa Bay – Ben Zobrist hits 25 HR

Texas – Josh Hamilton gets 100 RBIs

Toronto – Brett Cecil gets 10 Wins

Washington – Garrett Mock posts an ERA under 4.00




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28 Responses to “Opening Day Fantasy Predictions”

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  1. Chuy says:

    Dude.. DeRosa is not with St Louis.

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  2. Albert says:

    a bunch of these don’t go against the grain of conventional wisdom at all.
    i think the most unlikely prediction is Jeter hitting under .300
    I like the odds on most the other ones.

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    • Brian Joura says:

      All of these go against CW. Let’s take Nick Markakis. He’s never hit 25 HR in his career, last year he hit 18 and the projection systems call for him to hit between 18-23.

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    • jesse says:

      You like the odds of Garret Mock pitching under 4.00? I don’t like his odds of staying in the rotation past when Strasburg comes up (Lannan, Marquis, Wang, Olsen, Strasburg by September).

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      • Jim says:

        Scott Olsen’s shoulder is being held on with paper clips and glue, essentially, but he’ll stick in the Nationals’ rotation until September.

        Now thaaaaat’s optimistic. ;)

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  3. Tom B says:

    Don’t quit your day job.

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    • 3rd Period Points says:

      These sort of opinions are precisely what makes baseball, and particularly fantasy baseball, so interesting. Some are more unlikely than others, but none of these predictions are indefensible.
      A bit of research shows that Dempster threw more sliders than any other qualified pitcher in baseball last year. His arm could fall off at any moment.
      Jay Bruce was one of the most unlucky hitters according to his previous minor and major league BABIP averages.
      Tony Sipp probably has better control than he showed last year.
      That’s just a few that I was already aware of from my pre-draft preparation.

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  4. Jason B says:

    Lord everyone sure seems to be in a pissy mood for opening day. (THIS COLUMN SUCKS DUDE…PWNED!!1! Yeah, thanks for that.)

    I liked the concept – and you’re right, many of these do go against CW (some more so than others). Most people aren’t expecting particularly big things from Jon Garland, Casey Kotchman, and/or Garrett Mock, who may be perfectly serviceable for their respective teams.

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  5. Adam says:

    I wish instead of just these one line predictions, the author gave some reasoning behind them. Is he just pulling these out of a hat? Going on gut instinct? Or is there a statistical reason why he feels the way he does?

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  6. Shaggychild says:

    I am also hoping for big things from Floyd, De La Rosa, Bruce, and Zobrist.

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  7. Sam says:

    I like all of those predictions except for the Miggy one. He’s in his age 27 season and has some serious power. That prediction is a little edgy

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  8. Chris says:

    there is zero chance Cabrera doesn’t hit 30 jacks.

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    • Jason B says:

      You’re absolutely right, if by “zero” you mean “significantly greater than zero.” You used the shorthand notation!

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  9. JCav75 says:

    pointlessness of this article ranks up there with why the Mets signed Gary Matthews junior this season, when Angel Pagan has a better skill set in every facet of the game. –Wait, why am I talking about the Mets? Despite starting the season off with a David Wright 2 run HR and a W in the left column, in a month they will be completely irrelevant.

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  10. JCav75 says:

    just like this article.

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  11. Everyone says:

    Are you on meth? What reasoning can you provide for Miggy not hitting at least 30 dingers?

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    • (Smarter) Everyone says:

      Catastrophic injury that knocks him out for 4 months? Nagging injury that saps his power? Slump? Regression? Hittin’ the bottle? Hittin’ the wife?

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  12. Matty Brown says:

    Whoa guys! There is far too much negativity on these comments. Chill out.

    So many of you are ostracizing the author for not providing reasoning for his claims, while none of you provide any relevant reasoning for why you disagree with a particular claim. To me that is hypocritical.

    It is exceedingly easy to come in here and write a malicous little criticism; I would respect your opinions if you provided me with some sort of analysis.

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    • Jason B says:

      Totally agree. Jesus. Some people get upset that the claims don’t go against the CW enough and some say “How can you say Cabrera won’t hit 30 homers!”

      It’s like reading a political column aimed squarely toward the center – you’ll get cries from the harpies on the left AND the right.

      And when you can rile everyone, you’ve probably done a fair day’s work.

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  13. Squeeealer says:

    I think this was written as an entertainment piece and I was entertained. I am also now going to go study up some more on Tony Sipp.

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  14. Joshua Halley says:

    DID YOU REALLY JUST PREDICT CABRERA WONT HIT 30 HR???? I AM GOING TO GO ON RECORD TO SAY THAT HE IS PROBABLY THE #1 LOCK IN THE AL TO HIT 30. WHAT A DUMB PREDICTION.

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  15. Joshua Halley says:

    But I do like your FPaulino prediction! BUT THIS NOT ENOUGH TO REDEEM YOURSELF! I WILL GIVE YOU A SECOND CHANCE TO TAKE THIS PREDICTION BACK! (MCABRERA VS 30 HRS)

    Waiting…..there is NOTHING wrong with taking it back…..

    HE IS ONE OF THE BEST HITTERS EVER TO PLAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  16. Joshua Halley says:

    I am having trouble walking this off…. Cabrera not hitting 30 HR? Are you predicting that he gets hurt or something?

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    • JimNYC says:

      I could see Miggy not getting 30 HR if the drinking and being out of shape really starts to catch up with him. He’s never struck me as the type of player who would have a particularly long, productive career… I kind of see him having a “Ducky Medwick with more power” type career.

      The one that really sticks out to me is Jeter, since I see him being able to hit soft line drive singles to RF until he’s in his early 40′s, and putting up .300/.350/.400 type lines basically until he decides to call it a career.

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  17. cygar13 says:

    Maybe because he is fat and lazy and that is eventually going to catch up with him. Oh sorry, he quit drinking. Nevermind.

    He is something close to a .320 hitter who averages 30+ and 100+ when he is drunk. Maybe he should’ve thought about that before he quit.

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  18. Joshua Halley says:

    Since I have posted on this chat board….Cabrera has already hit 2 homeruns. hahaha. And last week he hit 2 500 footers in ONE SPRING TRAINING GAME! He is out to prove the world wrong.

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