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ottoneu Pitcher Rankings with Bill James Projections

Posted By Chad Young On December 4, 2012 @ 8:15 am In Ottoneu,Projections,Rankings | 6 Comments

We’ve already seen the new Bill James projections for 2013 used to rank hitters for 5×5 and linear weights, and to rank pitchers for 5×5 – time to look at how ottoneu players should be thinking about pitchers for 2013.

As with hitters, we are going to look at three sets of data, but unlike hitters, I am going to add a bonus set at the end (isn’t that nice of me).

The three rankings this time are as follows:

1) Straight points – add’em up and see who ends up on top
2) Pts/IP – total points over total innings
3) Points over a replacement level backup – who will actually give you the most value

A very important caveat comes in here: for relief pitchers, the Bill James projections predict Saves…but not Holds. In linear weights, that can cause a major issue and can completely skew the data. So for the rankings above, I am ignoring Saves and Holds completely – the RP rankings look only at innings pitched, strike outs, hits, walks, hit by pitch, and HR.

What this means is that a) RP are going to be more valuable, relative to starters, than they appear on these lists and b) some RP will move up or down these lists based on how many Saves or Holds they accrue.

This is also the reason for the promised bonus rank – all the way at the bottom I will drop a top 20 RP including Saves (but not holds) for those who are curious.

And with that, here are your rankings.

Straight Points

SP

Rank Name Pts
1 Clayton Kershaw 1283.2
2 Stephen Strasburg 1280.6
3 Justin Verlander 1213.7
4 Felix Hernandez 1194.9
5 CC Sabathia 1146.6
6 Matt Cain 1133.9
7 Roy Halladay 1129.9
8 Yu Darvish 1126.2
9 Cliff Lee 1125.4
10 Cole Hamels 1081.5
11 Zack Greinke 1072.4
12 David Price 1070.6
13 Jered Weaver 1065.3
14 Jake Peavy 1037.4
15 Chris Sale 1034.4
16 Matt Moore 1033.1
17 Kris Medlen 1020.4
18 Mat Latos 1020
19 R.A. Dickey 1008.3
20 Adam Wainwright 995.1

RP

Rank Name Pts (w/o Saves)
1 David Phelps 540.4
2 Craig Kimbrel 501.7
3 Kelvin Herrera 481.2
4 Franklin Morales 463.7
5 Brian Duensing 460.5
6 David Robertson 442
7 Ryan Cook 440.4
8 Grant Balfour 437.2
9 Kenley Jansen 426.7
10 Aroldis Chapman 423.2
11 Jason Motte 422.5
12 Vinnie Pestano 420.6
13 Greg Holland 413.8
14 Travis Blackley 400.8
15 Sergio Romo 400.5
16 Rex Brothers 399.6
17 Fernando Rodney 397.3
18 Brad Brach 394.3
19 Jonathan Papelbon 388.4
20 Luke Gregerson 388.2

Points per Inning Pitched
SP

Rank Name Pt/IP
1 Stephen Strasburg 6.16
2 Clayton Kershaw 5.81
3 Kris Medlen 5.37
4 Brandon Beachy 5.37
5 Yu Darvish 5.26
6 Justin Verlander 5.25
7 Chris Sale 5.22
8 Felix Hernandez 5.15
9 Matt Moore 5.11
10 Cory Luebke 5.06
11 Josh Johnson 5.06
12 Cliff Lee 5.02
13 Matt Cain 5.02
14 David Price 4.96
15 CC Sabathia 4.92
16 Jake Peavy 4.92
17 Roy Halladay 4.91
18 Tim Lincecum 4.91
19 Mat Latos 4.90
20 Adam Wainwright 4.90

RP

Rank Name Pt/IP (w/o Saves)
1 Craig Kimbrel 7.72
2 Kenley Jansen 7.36
3 Aroldis Chapman 6.32
4 Sergio Romo 6.26
5 Stephen Strasburg 6.16
6 David Robertson 6.14
7 Mariano Rivera 6.11
8 Cory Burns 6.04
9 J.J. Putz 5.99
10 Clayton Kershaw 5.81
11 Jonathan Papelbon 5.71
12 Jonathan Broxton 5.71
13 Brad Boxberger 5.70
14 Joe Nathan 5.69
15 Grant Balfour 5.68
16 Jason Motte 5.63
17 Greg Holland 5.59
18 Addison Reed 5.55
19 Jake McGee 5.54
20 Vinnie Pestano 5.53

Points Above Replacement (PAR)
SP

Rank Name PAR
1 Stephen Strasburg 511
2 Clayton Kershaw 465.5
3 Justin Verlander 359
4 Felix Hernandez 336.5
5 Yu Darvish 334.4
6 Kris Medlen 317.4
7 Chris Sale 301.8
8 Matt Cain 297.7
9 Cliff Lee 296.6
10 Matt Moore 285.7
11 CC Sabathia 284.5
12 Roy Halladay 278.9
13 David Price 271.4
14 Josh Johnson 266.3
15 Jake Peavy 256.7
16 Cole Hamels 256.4
17 Jered Weaver 251.3
18 Zack Greinke 251
19 Mat Latos 250.4
20 Adam Wainwright 244

RP

Rank Name PAR (w/o Saves)
1 Craig Kimbrel 196.2
2 Kenley Jansen 154.1
3 Aroldis Chapman 108.3
4 David Robertson 103.6
5 Sergio Romo 99.7
6 Mariano Rivera 87.3
7 J.J. Putz 75.9
8 Grant Balfour 75.3
9 Jason Motte 70
10 Jonathan Papelbon 68.8
11 Joe Nathan 66.2
12 Greg Holland 66
13 Ryan Cook 64.4
14 Vinnie Pestano 63.4
15 Jonathan Broxton 62.7
16 Kelvin Herrera 58.2
17 Jake McGee 49.4
18 Cory Burns 48.3
19 Matt Thornton 47.8
20 John Axford 46.3

A few notes:
– Kershaw and Strasburg take all six top spots for the starting pitchers, with the Dodger outpacing the National in total points thanks to an extra 13 IP. But the real question here is how many innings you think Strasburg will throw. I don’t think projecting him to lead the league in points per inning is a stretch, but there has to be at least some concern about his ability to reach 200 IP.
– Some of the characters on the RP total points list get a boost thanks to extra innings pitched when they appear as a starter – it is probably a safe bet to ignore David Phelps, Franklin Morales, Brian Duensing, and Travis Blackley. All are projected to make half or more of their appearances out of the pen, but their points accrued as relievers will not reach the heights suggested.
– The biggest surprise to me was seeing Medlen and Beachy as the numbers three and four SP in points per inning. Both fall off when you look at total points, but I’d be surprised to see them rank that high even on a rate basis on 2013.
– Kimbrel and Jansen are just in a class of their own.
– Adam Wainwright brings up the bottom of all three SP lists, but keep in mind this is just a top 20 – that’s a solid bounce-back season for Waino.

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RP Rankings with Saves (but not Holds)

Rank Name Pts (w/ Saves)
1 Craig Kimbrel 696.7
2 Aroldis Chapman 663.2
3 Jason Motte 647.5
4 Fernando Rodney 632.3
5 Grant Balfour 612.2
6 John Axford 609.7
7 Mariano Rivera 608.7
8 Kenley Jansen 601.7
9 Jonathan Papelbon 593.4
10 Greg Holland 568.8
11 Joe Nathan 566.1
12 Tom Wilhelmsen 553.1
13 Jose Valverde 549
14 Vinnie Pestano 545.6
15 Ryan Madson 544.7
16 David Phelps 540.4
17 Jim Johnson 532.1
18 Ernesto Frieri 526
19 Huston Street 524.4
20 J.J. Putz 493.2

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