ottoneu Post-Keeper Deadline Round Up

Over the next few weeks, my goal is going to be to do my best to help prepare you for the upcoming ottoneu auctions. But today, with the keeper deadline still fresh on all of our minds (I will have nightmares if Matt Moore strikes out everyone in sight this year…), I thought I’d stop and take a look at where we are today.

As of Friday night at midnight ET, every team in the ottoneu universe is (or at least should be) down to 40 or fewer players on the roster and $400 or less in salary spent, and that gives us a chance to see who all of you deemed worthy of keeping.

We’ll start with the 4×4 leagues, since that was the original ottoneu format. I actually can’t just tell you who the most commonly kept player here was – 56 players tied for that honor. They are peppered with the usual suspects (Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt, etc.) but the bulk of them come from two camps.

The first is players who were cheap before the season and broke out during it. Jose Fernandez, Julio Teheran, Domonic Brown, Matt Carpenter. The second group is top prospects that people hope will join that first group this summer, players like Xander Bogaerts, Jameson Taillon, George Springer and Oscar Taveras.

In the 5×5 leagues, only 38 players tied for “most kept,” and they came from the same sets, with one exception – no RP cracked the most kept 4×4 list, but in 5×5 there are a couple unsurprising names. Craig Kimbrel is probably the most obvious, but Koji Uehara, Casey Janssen, Trevor Rosenthal, David Robertson, Greg Holland, and Kenley Jansen all made the list. And other than Kimbrel, they all have something in common – there was a point last year that they could have been signed relatively cheap, but they now have closer roles all to themselves. If you find yourself building for the future, don’t skip out on bidding for relievers rising to (or potentially rising to) closer in the near future. Keep a close eye on undefined closer roles – if you can snag a $5 reliever in the auction and he runs with the ninth, you have yourself a very valuable asset.

SABR Points leagues saw more than 75 players tie for the most roster spots, but in FanGraphs Points, 24 rose above the rest. The interesting thing there is that Clayton Kershaw, who did not make the cut in either roto league, did so in both points leagues. Honestly, the owners in the SABR Points leagues may have made a mistake – SP just is not all that valuable in that format – but Kershaw was far and away the most valuable player in FanGraphs Points leagues last year and, for my money, should be the highest paid player in those leagues this year.

Speaking of highest paid, the table below shows the most expensive hitter and pitcher from each format, based on average salary kept:

Format Hitter Salary Overall Rank Pitcher Salary Overall Rank
4×4 Miguel Cabrera $54.64 1 Clayton Kershaw $47.86 4
5×5 Miguel Cabrera $61.67 1 Clayton Kershaw $43.72 11
FG Pts Miguel Cabrera $57.92 1 Clayton Kershaw $46.52 5
SABR Pts Miguel Cabrera $58.83 1 Clayton Kershaw $47.33 6

Sensing a pattern? Maybe a couple, actually. Clearly there is wide-spread agreement on the two most valuable fantasy producers, and clearly there is agreement on paying hitters more than pitchers.

Just below that, though, things get more interesting. If I asked you to guess who was the second highest paid player in these formats, I imagine most of you would go with a certain Angel whose last name rhymes with pout. But in two of the four formats, Mike Trout falls third, with Joey Votto sneaking in ahead of him. This is surprising to me, but I attribute it to the fact that there are probably quite a few Trout owners out there who had Trout for single digits two years ago and have seen his salary get bumped in arbitration the last couple years, but not to the point that he would be paid on the open market. By the way, to the SABR Pts team that owns a $22 Mike Trout – what are the other owners in your league doing?!

Finally, how about a quick look at the most expensive single contract in each format:

Format Hitter Salary Pitcher Salary
4×4 Miguel Cabrera $68 Clayton Kershaw $67
5×5 Mike Trout $102 Justin Verlander $93
FG Pts Mike Trout $92 Clayton Kershaw $65
SABR Pts Miguel Cabrera/Mike Trout $66 Clayton Kershaw $58

$102 for Mike Trout! A century man! That is 25% of a budget! It is also probably a huge mistake. Fascinating that Verlander passes Kershaw in highest 5×5 salary – when you move away from averages and look at outliers you get, well…outliers.

And we’ll end with a story and a caveat. Last year, in the heat of a championship chase, one of the owners in the original ottoneu league traded for a ton of top talent, including the $67 Kershaw you see listed in 4×4 above. By the 2013 trade deadline, he had Kershaw, a $60 Miguel Cabrera, $59 Justin Verlander, $49 Robinson Cano, $49 Prince Fielder, $45 Jered Weaver, $40 Buster Posey, $39 David Price, $37 Dustin Pedroia, $36 Matt Holliday and $33 Adrian Beltre. That is 11 players for $504.

Obviously he had to make a lot of cuts, but he kept Kershaw, Cabrera, Cano, Posey, and Price. Building a winning team when you enter the auction with $72 to spend on 27 roster spots is an uphill climb to say the least. But this owner let me know that his plan is to see what he can cobble together, but that he wanted to keep those five, particularly the top two, because of their trade value – the fastest way to rebuild, he felt, was to sell those players to the highest bidder for prospects and cheap talent.

I am sharing this not to advise for or against this approach, but to remind you that ottoneu salary data, like all data, is subject to all sorts of behaviors and interactions. Just because you see a $67 Kershaw being kept doesn’t mean an owner thinks Kershaw is worth $67 – but if keeping him drives up the prices of other SP and allows you to later trade him to someone desperate for pitching help, that could well be a win.




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52 Responses to “ottoneu Post-Keeper Deadline Round Up”

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  1. LarryA says:

    Did that guy win the original league?

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    • Chad Young says:

      He did not, but to be fair, he added most of those guys late in the game in a mad-dash attempt to pass up a run-away league leader and to hold off his competition for third. He ended up second.

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  2. Chad Young says:

    if you have questions about ottoneu, ask away. I’ll try to answer everything in this thread.

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  3. bfd106b says:

    Love, love, LOVED your article last year about auction values for all formats of ottoneu…can we look forward to a 2014 version in the coming days?

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  4. tylersnotes says:

    The ottoneu avg salaries page was invaluable to me as i was deciding on who to keep and who to cut– it’s one thing to have my own projections for what a player could be worth, but knowing what the average value is across all leagues helps me see what the average market is for such a player. For instance, i had anthony rizzo at $27 and cut him, I feel like he could end up being worth around $25 and the extra few bucks aren’t worth fussing over, but I also now feel confident that I could buy him back for less.

    It would be great if Ottoneu could either make links to these resources more clearly available, or make more resources available. I would love to have access to some of the data around player values, and being able to break it apart by format is particularly helpful.

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    • Chad Young says:

      I’ll pass your note about accessibility along to Niv. Or tweet him @ottoneu.

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      • Chad Young says:

        Niv’s response was that he is aware these things should be more accessible and he is working on it.

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      • Chad Young says:

        By the way, my reading of my passing along of Niv’s note sounded curt…Niv’s email to me did not sound curt. He made it quite clear that he 100% agrees – he builds these tools so people can use them, so making them accessible only makes sense!

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    • Chad Young says:

      and I agree that you can get Rizzo for less than $27 and in leagues where he is an option, I’ll be targeting him.

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    • tylersnotes says:

      thanks chad for passing along my feedback. i have a couple other ideas that i’ll send along to Niv directly.

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  5. Cardinology says:

    Any interesting data about number of keepers and total amount of money spent on keepers per team? Seems like my league settled around 25ish keepers per team and $340 or so dollars in keepers with a couple outliers. Would be curious to know of that’s similar to other leagues or not.

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    • Chad Young says:

      So I don’t have any wide-spread data, but across my three leagues:

      1) 24.67 players, $268.4 kept ($10.88 per player)
      2) 24.1 players, $265.6 kept ($11.03 per player)
      3) 18.9 players, $243.7 kept ($12.88 per player)

      I have some theories for the difference, but trying to explore them further before throwing anything in a comment.

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    • Roto Wizard says:

      The league I’m in is in one of three camps. A few of the owners were very satisfied with their club and dropped low end easily replaceable talent giving them 8-12 open spots and about $30-90 to spend. Several others cut a few big cost guys that are on the decline and several low end talents, which give them about $90-$120 to work with and a dozen or more roster spots to fill. The third camp were polar opposites of each other, last years winner (5 open spots, $8 free), and myself (10 open spots, $162 free).

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  6. Jabronies says:

    Most Otto articles are about points leagues. Can you tell us what percentage of leagues are points vs 5×5 vs 4×4?

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    • Chad Young says:

      I believe points are the most common, but I’ll see if I can confirm that.

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      • Chad Young says:

        more data!
        FG Points – 56.2% of leagues
        SABR Points – 10% of leagues
        4×4 – 12.3% of leagues
        5×5 – 21.5% of leagues

        For those of you not playing 4×4, you are missing out. For my money, the best of the four formats. I love FG Pts, as well, and they are all good, but if I were starting another league right now, I’d go with 4×4.

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      • tylersnotes says:

        i’d love to know what about 4×4 makes it the best to you. I absolutely love the points league format; i’m a sucker for strategy games that have a really well balanced game engine and the fg points scoring system is the most balanced fantasy sports scoring i’ve come across. My problem with formats like 4×4 and 5×5 is that there are certain players who are obviously the most valuable, and nearly everyone else is worth very little. In those formats a ‘stars and scrubs’ strategy will almost always win; it seems like a really easy game to ‘break’ where a few teams are guaranteed to finish in the top 3 and everyone else will be outside looking in or spending way too much on prospects

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      • Chad Young says:

        Tyler, I agree with your line about wanting balance, but I am surprised to hear you say, “My problem with formats like 4×4 and 5×5 is that there are certain players who are obviously the most valuable, and nearly everyone else is worth very little.” This is almost exactly my issue with points leagues. In FG Pts, if player A earns 1200 points and player B earns 700 points (in the same playing time), we know definitively that A is more valuable than B. To every team in every league no matter what.

        But in 5×5 or 4×4, we care HOW the points are earned. Maybe B is a weak slap hitter with great wheels while A is a burly three-true-outcomes type. Well, if your 5×5 team needs AVG, SB and R, B may well be more valuable to you, while a team needing HR and RBI will prefer A. Similarly, in 4×4 A might give you HR and SLG, but if you are chasing someone in runs, B is more useful to you.

        Eno wrote this up well today, but I just plain prefer roto leagues because of this. Trading is more fun and more balanced, owners valuations of players vary more greatly, etc.

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      • tylersnotes says:

        I read eno’s piece too and enjoyed it but I just don’t see it that way. Evaluating players is about projecting future performance– what do I care if player a has been worth 1200 points last season; I care what I think he’ll be worth going forward. This is the same with roto formats just standardized in points leagues. In roto; I know hr will be low across the league and sb’s are cheap. Every owner knows this and evaluates every player equally as a result– maybe I believe in Rutledge and you don’t, but what we believe in is his contribution to maybe 3 categories tops.

        In a points league I get to look for guys like Matt carpenter who are barely on the radar in roto (or, after they stop being sleepers, are grossly overvalued in roto).

        Points leagues unlock players who are only marginal in roto.

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      • Chad Young says:

        Can you give me an example of a player like who you are talking about? I agree that valuations and projections going forward are a big difference maker and driver of the markets/trades/etc., but a guy like Carpenter was as much of a breakout success in 4×4 or 5×5 as he was in Points leagues.

        On the other hand, Everth Cabrera was relatively uninteresting in points leagues last year, but was extremely valuable in 5×5.

        Points leagues diminish the value of just-above-replacement-level players (I cover this in my FG+ piece briefly this year) because they put everything on the same scale.

        We may disagree on whether player A will steal 30 bases or 60 or whether player B will hit 20 HR or 40, but in a points league we will 100% of the time value the HR (even the 20 HR) more than the SB (even the 60 SB) because the league rules dictate that 20 HR are worth 188 points while the 60 SB are worth 114 points (assuming you never get caught). In 5×5, depending on team needs, I might well prefer the SB. All else equal, valuing 60 SB over 20 HR in a points league is wrong; but in 5×5 it’s debatable – just so much more room for opinion, variation in values, etc.

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      • tylersnotes says:

        chad– the best example i can think of off the bat is marco scutaro circa 2011- guys who get on base and get extra base hits, maybe produce runs and maybe get rbis but don’t have a ton of power or speed. These are skill sets that are incredibly valuable in baseball, and never worth as much in roto formats. Matt Carpenter is that type of guy to me because, while he produced a ton of runs and rbi, he can’t be expected to repeat that level of performance but he could still be a top 5 2b in a points league. if he’s a top 5 2b in roto it’s only because it’s a weak position.

        Part of my being down on roto leagues almost certainly comes from the leagues i’ve been in just not being active enough– putting together trades by saying “you need power and i need SB so let’s help each other” sounds great but i just haven’t seen that happen enough in my experience. seems like position-based trades are more frequent anyway.

        I think in a casual redraft league the format ultimately doesn’t matter as much as all of the other aspects around who else is in your league and how they operate; in dynasty/keeper leagues the format becomes more important because transactions and evaluations are necessarily going to include future projected value, and in these cases i prefer points because it opens up a class of players who are largely ignored by standard roto players/analysis (namely, obp guys).

        I also think it’s not accurate to compare SB value in a points format to SB value in roto– SB is the only measure of speed in roto but there are other ways speed is rewarded in points formats. If a guys legs can stretch a single to a double, he gets rewarded for it.

        Maybe, though, I like points formats because i love Ben Zobrist and want him to be rewarded

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  7. Jonathan says:

    Speaking for the other owners in the league with the $22 Trout, we enforce a modified arbitration system that privileges the first three years of a player’s service time. We weren’t able to affect Trout’s price the last two seasons. He will get more expensive after this year.

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    • Chad Young says:

      This is interesting and makes a lot of sense. Will be curious in a year or two to see what your league looks like compared to others that have not instituted this type of control. We debated making this a feature of the allocation system and decided that rather than forcing this on leagues, we’d let leagues that wanted to do what you did. Are you happy with the results? three years too much time?

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      • Jonathan says:

        I think we are happy with it. Basically, each team has a player voted off their roster at the end of the year via the arbitration system, and the owner is given a $5 discount on that player at auction. No player with less than two years of service time can be voted off. Players with 2-3 years of service time can be “protected” from arbitration with a $6 salary increase. It gives teams an incentive to develop prospects on their 40-man roster.

        Now, it so happens that no one has made that strategy pay yet. The guy who owns Trout also owns a number of current top prospects and has yet to finish top-half. But the whole point is obviously to craft a long-term strategy, so I think you’re right that 1-2 years from now might be the right time to evaluate.

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      • dlinde says:

        Same league. It creates the potential for protected surplus value, and in doing so encourages prospect hoarding. But rostering prospects comes at the expense of mlb depth, and I wouldn’t say those teams are advantaged. For what it’s worth, our prospect values are in sync with other ottoneu leagues. I guess I’d say we’re happy with the results, and the net change is slight. Three years is fine.

        The team with the $22 trout is sitting on Taveras, Buxton, and Baez, among others. So we’ll see. Maybe I’ll eat my words.

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      • JFC says:

        It’s created several more interesting strategy options for roster construction. Additionally, there’s just a ton of trading that goes on midseason as the protections make you far more able to exchange long-term value for short term.

        The other neat tweak we made is that, when we’re calculating contributions for our league’s prize pool, your pay in is the actual money you spend on salary, so you can try to build a team cheaply for $200 or you can use your entire salary cap. Because there are so many more dollars available under the cap, large contracts of underperforming guys are still quite movable.

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      • Chad Young says:

        Very cool. Thanks for the info. Love hearing about these tweaks people make and how they play out.

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      • BDD says:

        I like how this quickly became a forum for SSFB. JFC forgot to mention that included in the dollar conversion is a luxury tax. We got pretty technical on a lot of fronts to mold the league to fit our desires. It’s pretty super serious.

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    • YankeeGM says:

      That has been my only complaint about the Ottoneu format since joining in 2010 offseason. I drafted Trout back before 2011 season and sat on him for a season and a half before starting to realize value. As soon as he started producing for me he got voted off my team. The very next season our league went to arb dollars method, but the point remains that I should get SOME benefit for drafting and holding a player who becomes a superstar. The ‘vote-off’ method is lunacy, and the ‘add arb dollars’ method is better, but still doesn’t give enough reward to patient owners who build their teams with minor league talent.

      Having a ‘no add’ period is perfect. This way owners who roster cheap talent that end up breaking out have the advantage that being ‘smart’ SHOULD give them!!

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    • YankeeGM says:

      if there are ever an6y openings in your league pls let me know!
      yankeegm@gmail.com

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  8. Boof Bonser says:

    How much would you be willing to pay for Byron Buxton in a FG points league?

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    • Chad Young says:

      Really hard to say. His potential is Mike Trout-esque, which would make him a $50 player starting next year. Of course that is highly unlikely to be how things play out. He still hasn’t faced AA or AAA pitching, what I have read suggests elite breaking stuff (for A-ball) gives him problems, and he is still a bit raw. So let’s say there ia like 5% chance he is a $50 player very soon, a 40% chance he is a $30 player, a 40% chance he is a $15 player and a 5% chance he is basically worthless. Those are pretty random numbers, but bear with me…

      That would make his projected value something like $20.50, I believe (I am doing math off the top of my head here, so please double check my work). So if we can guess he is a $20 player next year, you should theoretically be willing to pay him $18 this year to fair value next year. But, of course, you also have to factor in the lost production from paying $18 for nothing for most of 2014, if not all of it.

      So, with that in mind, I would guess something like $12-$15? Honestly, I don’t like spending much more than that on a prospect who you are not expecting to be called up early enough to impact 2014, but if my focus is on rebuilding and not winning now, I would bid up to $15 on him. In that case, the lost value this year doesn’t hurt, if he pans out, you have a decent value for next year (or maybe even a great value) and if it turns out that was an overpay, you can cut him in the off-season.

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      • tolerate says:

        Thanks for your thoughts on this. I have a $16 Kris Bryant and was really torn on whether to keep him or not. In the end I couldn’t bring myself to cut ties.

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  9. Clayton says:

    Chad, Do you have a particular strategy when it comes to prospects? How many do you usually have on your roster?

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    • Chad Young says:

      You can see a bit about my thought process on pricing prospects above, but how many I roster really varies. In one league, where I was struggling the last couple years, I had a bunch (10? 12?) and then my team broke through last year and I expect to have very few this year (I have Addison Russell and Gregory Polanco from a trade I just made, and I don’t expect to spend much more on prospects at all).

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  10. Roto Wizard says:

    Given that we are now 3 seasons into this. What kind of trends are you noticing this season? What I’m really curious about is, do you see more teams cutting big and restocking via the draft, or do you see owners holding on to the high end talent that is now ‘overpriced’ and piecing together a roster? I’m curious because this season, I somehow have almost 80% more draft dollars than the next closest owner, and in looking at the free agents… there’s a very real possibility I can get the top 3 pitchers and the top 5 hitters. And I’m wondering if this is what’s happening in most leagues, or is this just a fluke situation? 5×5

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    • Chad Young says:

      I would venture to guess that there are owners in your league who think their teams are one-two pieces away from winning and will spend obscene amounts to get those pieces. I myself have used this approach in the past – kept a roster that was near full, but saved $80 for like 8 spots with the plan to spend $60+ on the one guy I need. So I would expect that those 8 players you mentioned will be way pricier than you expect. Enough so that I do not believe you possibly have the cap room to get them all.

      As for trends, one of the things I find interesting is that my FanGraphs Experts League, which is highly competitive, has very quickly matched the original league (also competitive, but now something like 10 years old…) very quickly in terms of inflation and keeper strategies. In both those leagues, high-priced talent is kept.

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  11. Jabronies says:

    Whats the best strategy for not leaving money on the table at the end of a draft?

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    • Roto Wizard says:

      Don’t be afraid to overbid a few extra $$ on the players you truly want and that will seriously help your squad. Obviously it varies by league, but most drafts are only going to have a dozen or so players that are true squad builders. If you really need a 3B or a SP or whatever, target the guy you really want and don’t be afraid to go big. If you’ve got a ton of spots to fill and a limited budget, you have to be aggressive on potential bargains.

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      • Chad Young says:

        I’d agree with that. Focus on filling your biggest needs with the biggest fish, unless you are in rebuilding mode – then you want to maximize your in-season dollars for those break out prospects or out-of-nowhere stars (like Donaldson last year). All owners will want to have at least a few dollars open to be able to make moves in season, though.

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    • tylersnotes says:

      i left money on the board last year. The benefit in ottoneu is that having some money left over can help you in 2 ways: 1- you have money for free agent bidding and 2- you have the ability to take on money in trades. After the dust settles, guys will become aware of their holes and you can target the more expensive guys in trades, and it won’t matter if they’re overpriced.

      The other thing to remember– the guys you’re most likely to keep each year are the value depth pieces. the guys who spent the extra $1 on Matt Carpenter last year to win those auctions gained the most, and also risked the least, compared to the guys who spent the extra $1 on albert pujols or justin verlander. Filling your bench with $1 players is great if they all break right, but filling it with $5 or $8 players will give you plenty of depth to trade from and the guys who break out are still very cheap for next year.

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      • Roto Wizard says:

        If you’re a mid table team, tylersnotes is right, the low dollar guys are your best bet to exploit value in that scenario. It all really depends on what your current squad is projected for. If you have a real shot at a title and you need absolute production to win, then guys that are ‘sure’ things are the best value for you. If you need big production from several positions just to make a run then value buys are the players you should aggressively target. If there’s no way you have a chance at a title then you want to target prospects and low dollar guys that could provide big value next year or in trades.

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  12. kusnider says:

    I just wanted to comment quickly that I appreciate this article and all others. Has really helped my ottoneu experience and think the responses from other owners here have been great!

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  13. Lucky Strikes says:

    Here’s a spreadsheet you can use to evaluate your Ottoneu roster for 2014:
    http://goo.gl/VenZoq

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    • Roto Wizard says:

      That is one awesome spreadsheet. Don’t suppose there’s one for 5×5?

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      • Lucky Strikes says:

        Unfortunately no. I’m pretty committed to the FG Points format but if there’s enough interest I could modify it for 5 x 5

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    • tylersnotes says:

      This is beautiful and I love it. You should submit this as a community fangraphs post. Or, even better, don’t post it anywhere else and delete this comment so that no one in my league sees it.

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    • Roto Wizard says:

      Well, other than myself, I know a few 100 people that would really enjoy something like that for 5×5. It must take a ton of time, so I totally understand there’s not much motivation to invest that much time in a format you don’t play. Any chance on uploading an unlocked sheet that could be edited by a third party? There’s no way I could do as good a job as you did, but I’d still like to try!

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  14. YankeeGM says:

    Chad-

    Can you post some links to Ottoneu info pages? I use the Average Values page a lot, but are there other resources I’m missing?

    THX!!

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