- FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy -

# ottoneu Values Refreshed

Back when we launched FG+ earlier this year, I included a table that put dollar values on players for year one and future year ottoneu leagues. Since then, I have mentioned a few times that I wanted to refresh those values with new projections.

Well, I have auctions coming up the next two weekends and finally got my act together to get my spreadsheets in shape; today, I release them into the wild!

Before sharing the link, I’ll start with an update on my methodology (you can see the original here).

The biggest difference is that I used a combination of three projection systems – Steamer, ZiPS and PECOTA – rather than only a single system. I do this because I like to smooth out the outliers from each. Some people have told me they think this is a mistake, but it’s a process that works for me. If all three (or even two of the three) agree that a guy is a candidate for a big season, it shows up. If only one does, it shows up but much less clearly. Instead of getting caught up in the particulars of a single system, I am using a modified version of the “wisdom of the crowds” and it has served me well in the past. I do not, by the way, weight them equally – I have a preference for ZiPS in general and Steamer for pitchers, and I take that into account.

The next change is that I made a change to the way I calculate Points Above Replacement (PAR) for points leagues. As discussed with reader Chok in the comments of the article linked to above, I was likely under-weighting the value of a player leading off (or just playing every day) and getting large numbers of plate appearances, by breaking everything down to a per-PA ranking. I still use Pts/PA as my primary method to determine value, but now any plate appearances past #600 are compared to a replacement level of 0. So, for his first 600 PA, Ryan Braun gets credit for his 1.613 Pts/PA minus the OF replacement level of 1.117 Pts/PA, but for the other 76, he gets the full 1.613. I think this will help the issue of undervaluing guys who play a lot and overvaluing platoon players. For catchers, I used 500 PA instead of 600.

I also limited the player pool, only using players who were ranked by all three systems, leaving me with 644 hitters and 652 pitchers.

And, finally, rather than basing inflation on a theoretical set of keepers based on owners only keeping the players my spreadsheet says they should keep, I based it on the actual results of the cut deadline in my leagues.