Outfielder Consensus Ranks for the Second Half

by Eno Sarris - July 12, 2012

Phew what a bear. Starting pitchers remain on the docket for Monday, but thankfully only catchers tomorrow. Because there seem like there are about a million outfielders.

Of course, not all of them are any good, especially in a mixed league. And we probably ranked about three times as many as we needed to for mixed leaguers. But at least all the relevant names are here. Even if there are too many to recap in any comprehensive way, they’re here.

And there’s actually a lot of consensus here. At least until you get to Joey Bats. One of us thinks he’s not necessarily going to be much better in the second half. And of course Justin Upton inspired some different opinions. Surely some of you think he’s still too far up on the list despite his prodigious tools. Michael Bourn might not be such a two-cat guy any more, or maybe he still is. Desmond Jennings! Bryce Harper! Let’s all go nuts! (At least Kirk Nieuwenhuis is who we thought he was.)

I’ll discuss these with you in the comments — I always do — but know that I think it’s your right to emote, and my place to engage. It’s the best way to continually make the rankings better. Good luck!

FanGraphs Consensus Rankings: Outfield
New	Last	Player Name	Eno Sarris	Mike Podhorzer	Jeff Zimmerman	Zach Sanders
1	2	Ryan Braun	1	1	1	1
2	3	Carlos Gonzalez	2	3	2	3
3	1	Matt Kemp	3	2	5	2
4	8	Andrew McCutchen	4	7	3	6
5	5	Jose Bautista	5	4	10	4
6	7	Josh Hamilton	6	5	7	5
7	60	Mike Trout	7	8	4	12
8	6	Curtis Granderson	9	10	6	9
9	12	Adam Jones	8	15	11	7
10	4	Justin Upton	10	6	9	17
11	9	Jay Bruce	12	12	15	8
12	10	Matt Holliday	13	9	12	19
13	13	Michael Bourn	11	21	13	10
14	11	Hunter Pence	14	13	14	15
15	N/A	Adrian Gonzalez	16	11	16	18
16	26	Carlos Beltran	15	16	30	16
17	31	Jacoby Ellsbury	18	17	20	25
18	17	Shane Victorino	17	19	27	22
19	65	Mark Trumbo	24	31	19	13
20	32	Melky Cabrera	23	38	17	14
21	19	Nelson Cruz	28	14	21	29
22	22	Andre Ethier	20	34	35	11
23	18	Corey Hart	29	28	26	24
24	24	Michael Cuddyer	19	20	18	51
26	16	Alex Gordon	30	37	24	28
25	35	Jason Heyward	21	30	37	31
27	21	Shin-Soo Choo	25	22	31	45
28	14	Desmond Jennings	32	18	34	43
29	50	Alex Rios	48	24	23	34
30	72	Allen Craig	22	36	55	21
31	20	B.J. Upton	36	33	22	44
32	25	Ben Zobrist	42	25	25	46
33	41	Josh Willingham	26	65	39	23
34	47	Austin Jackson	41	45	33	35
35	64	Bryce Harper	31	46	62	20
36	44	Michael Morse	34	29	69	27
37	52	Martin Prado	35	52	36	36
38	15	Mike Stanton	39	42	8	72
39	59	Colby Rasmus	54	56	29	26
40	27	Nick Markakis	47	32	49	40
41	28	Lance Berkman	27	23	91	30
42	67	Jason Kubel	45	66	28	32
43	30	Ichiro Suzuki	40	35	45	60
44	33	Howie Kendrick	38	48	40	56
	N/A	Adam Dunn	50	27	70	37
45	42	Yoenis Cespedes	37	58	53	41
46	39	Angel Pagan	52	41	56	53
47	49	Alejandro De Aza	53	44	43	62
48	43	Nick Swisher	61	54	38	52
49	37	Carl Crawford	33	26	46	102
50	34	Logan Morrison	46	40	64	63
51	40	Drew Stubbs	66	62	32	54
52	46	Torii Hunter	57	51	44	67
53	69	Dexter Fowler	58	68	48	48
54	29	Matt Joyce	44	63	61	61
55	97	Josh Reddick	43	67	75	49
56	45	Carlos Lee	73	49	57	55
57	36	Cameron Maybin	56	39	67	73
58	48	Emilio Bonifacio	51	71	93	38
59	106	Ben Revere	49	47	60	98
60	55	Lucas Duda	63	64	86	47
61	38	Chris Young	72	55	68	66
62	110	Trevor Plouffe	65	77	87	33
63	80	Juan Pierre	75	97	52	39
64	53	Kendrys Morales	55	53	101	57
65	N/A	Chris Davis	64	59	58	90
66	54	Denard Span	76	72	82	42
67	62	Jeff Francoeur	68	61	50	93
68	63	Delmon Young	74	50	47	105
69	N/A	Norichika Aoki	71	91	51	65
70	89	Brandon Belt	69	88	74	50
71	51	Coco Crisp	80	43	96	64
72	73	Michael Brantley	59	80	41	104
73	76	Carlos Quentin	60	70	99	58
74	57	J.D. Martinez	78	73	54	84
75	104	Dayan Viciedo	67	102	42	81
76	88	Cody Ross	62	84	66	89
77	83	Alfonso Soriano	77	87	72	68
78	N/A	Tyler Colvin	83	92	65	70
79	58	Brennan Boesch	79	69	78	86
80	68	Alex Presley	70	74	59	123
81	70	Vernon Wells	90	75	94	76
82	95	Garrett Jones	89	111	63	80
83	23	Brett Gardner	84	57	92	113
84	101	Mitch Moreland	87	82	83	101
85	86	Will Venable	81	105	90	78
86	85	Yonder Alonso	95	89	113	59
87	N/A	Rajai Davis	86	76	88	108
88	66	Peter Bourjos	94	107	73	85
89	94	Gerardo Parra	92	101	76	95
90	93	David Murphy	110	95	79	87
91	78	Tony Campana	82	78	84	130
92	82	Lorenzo Cain	88	60	121	106
93	71	Jayson Werth	98	117	89	75
94	74	Luke Scott	93	83	123	83
95	98	Andres Torres	99	85	125	74
96	77	Andy Dirks	100	86	95	103
97	90	David DeJesus	116	93	100	77
98	79	Jon Jay	85	108	80	116
99	N/A	Michael Saunders	97	121	108	69
100	N/A	Ryan Ludwick	91	124	71	112
101	N/A	Bobby Abreu	122	90	98	92
102	91	Ryan Sweeney	102	109	115	82
103	100	Mike Carp	114	81	106	107
104	81	Jordan Schafer	96	94	128	94
105	N/A	Todd Frazier	103	103
106	96	Seth Smith	118	106	110	79
107	92	Chris Heisey	113	100	97	110
108	105	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	105	99	105	115
109	84	Jason Bay	108	79	116	122
110	N/A	Raul Ibanez	132	123	77	97
111	75	Eric Thames	101	133	85	114
112	102	Aubrey Huff	123	113	111	88
113	103	Jarrod Dyson	104	98	109	126
114	N/A	Quintin Berry	112	122	114	91
115	N/A	Daniel Nava	129	118	122	71
117	N/A	Steve Lombardozzi	115	128	102	99
116	N/A	Gregor Blanco	107	96	130	111
118	109	Brian Bogusevic	125	114	112	96
119	N/A	Brandon Moss	117	119	118	100
120	87	Nyjer Morgan	109	116	107	124
121	99	John Mayberry	120	115	104	118
122	61	Jose Tabata	124	131	81	121
123	N/A	Ty Wigginton	128	104
124	107	Roger Bernadina	121	112	120	125
125	N/A	Xavier Avery	111	130
126	N/A	Nate Schierholtz	119	129	127	109
127	88	Marlon Byrd	106	134	117	131
128	56	Nolan Reimold	134	132	103	120
129	N/A	Ryan Kalish	126	120	119	128
130	108	Ryan Raburn	127	110	131	129
131	N/A	Scott Hairston	130	125	126	117
132	N/A	Tony Gwynn Jr	131	126	124	119
133	N/A	Scott Podsednik	133	127	129	127

Eno Sarris manages the RotoGraphs blog when he's not asking players about stats. Follow his misadventures in writing on Twitter @enosarris or www.enosarris.com. You can chat with him here about baseball (real and fantasy) and beer at FanGraphs most Thursdays at noon eastern time, if you like.

Marge Bouvier says:

July 12, 2012 at 3:51 pm

Adrian Gonzalez… hmmm…. not sure what I think of him. Has ZIPs taken into account the massive amount of sucking he’s been doing? Just go ahead and double that HR output in the 2nd half because he’s totally shown that his power is going to just magically return? This troubles me. Do these rankings make me want to go out and see what I can get? I could use a great 2nd half from a guy like him because, well, my team isn’t very good. I will take this gamble because I don’t have much else to lose. Would an Upton for AGon swap be something that might jump start a team that’s not performing to expectation? Reyes. Youk (but he’s getting better). Upton now might get traded.

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:54 pm

I’d rather not trade one buy low for another buy low. Why not put together a couple bench/iffy pieces to get AGonz, and then if both him and Upton take off your team will be much better for it.

Scott Clarkson says:

knee jerk reaction: Nelson Cruz is too high riding on name recognition and dwindling power w/ no hope of the running game coming back.

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:55 pm

Well, power takes the longest to stabilize, but you’re probably right about his running game at his age.

Marichal says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:02 pm

Where’s Ruggiano?

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:57 pm

will get him in there. I’d put him in low 80s because I’m unsure of his playing time going forward with Boni back.

- Peter says:
  
  July 12, 2012 at 7:57 pm
  
  They’d have to be crazy to stop giving Ruggiano playing time right now, wouldn’t they?
  
  Even if they’d rather play Bonifacio over Ruggiano (which I don’t see why they would right now) Stanton is out 4-6 weeks so he’ll have playing time in RF.

MIke D says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:03 pm

I really thought Allen Craig would have moved up higher than he did. Not sure what Jeff is thinking there. Injury risk perhaps? It shouldn’t be a lack of playing time. Even when Berkman returns, Craig has proven his bat needs to be in lineup everyday.

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:58 pm

Little bit of both injury risk and playing time risk probably. His glove is pretty terrible.

Adam says:

July 12, 2012 at 6:44 pm

“Not sure what Jeff is thinking”

Jeff isn’t thinking anything. His ranks are more or less ZiPS ROS projections from what they have said rather than any sort of opinion.

Sean says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:05 pm

Thanks for doing these mixed league rankings. SO MUCH more helpful than splitting them by AL/NL!

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:52 pm

Doing both now, but that sort of feedback was part of the reason for the consensus ranks.

LuckyStrikes says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:08 pm

I think it’s obvious, but the real reason behind Mike Stanton’s knee injury (surgery) is a direct result of the fall from 15th to 38th on this list. That’s a long way down. Ouch.

July 12, 2012 at 4:12 pm

Berkman, C. Young, and Kendrick should all be red. Also, where is Dunn?

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:51 pm

Fixed. Dunn we’ll get soon.

Eno Sarris says:

July 13, 2012 at 4:09 am

Dunn in now.

Jason says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:15 pm

What am I missing about Reddick? What makes him worth so much less than, say, Nelson Cruz, for example?

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:51 pm

I think the power is going to regress, and that’ll take some of the batting average with it.

- Jason says:
  
  July 12, 2012 at 5:20 pm
  
  Fair enough, but even a regression there still puts his counting stats in line with a lot of guys ranked 10-20 spots higher than him. Take a look at ZiPS (r) for Reddick compared to, say, Cruz, Morse, Heyward… Perhaps it’s format dependent, I’m in a points league so AVG doesn’t matter so much as total bases, etc.
  
  Regardless, I think the power is real… hypothetically, if it is, where would you rank him?
- Eno Sarris says:
  
  July 12, 2012 at 5:27 pm
  
  So let’s say he beats his ZiPs RoS based on an ISO over .210 or so, then he should be able to manage something similar to first half, maybe .260 with 15 homers and 5 stolen bases? That would put him in the top 25 easily, maybe the top 20.
- Jason says:
  
  July 12, 2012 at 10:45 pm
  
  Thanks, that’s helpful. His owner just dropped him (clearly he believes like you). My outfield is pretty solid even if the power is real (J. Upton, Trout & Rios), so I’m just considering using my #2 waiver priority on what could be a solid Util, or a hedge against any of my guys not earning their keep.
  
  I’m still sorely tempted.

Alex says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:16 pm

I think Rasmus should be ranked a tad better, and Desmond Jennings needs to come down further.

Peter says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:43 pm

Ichiro needs to be dropped WAY down.

wobatus says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:00 pm

Norichika>Ichiro

- Peter says:
  
  July 12, 2012 at 5:01 pm
  
  All 20 of the OFs ranked below Ichiro > Ichiro
- wobatus says:
  
  July 12, 2012 at 5:40 pm
  
  Maybe not Crawford or Maybin.
Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:28 pm

I’d say there’s a tier there that ends with Berkman and Ichiro is fungible in that next group.

Twins Fan says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:45 pm

Why is Plouffe so low? What makes him twice the rank of guys like Shin-Soo Choo, Austin Jackson, and Nick Markakis?

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:59 pm

Because he doesn’t have a track record of this kind of power and our rest-of-season ranks are baking in some regression in that department, most likely.

July 12, 2012 at 4:48 pm

Did Michael Cuddyer sleep with Zach Sanders’ girlfriend?

Ira says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:21 pm

There are a number of issues with these rankings, not least of which is Giancarlo Stanton ranked 8th by Jeff Zimmerman

Wil Myers says:

July 12, 2012 at 4:55 pm

Where would I rank on this list if i got called up soon?

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:01 pm

I’d probably put him in the 40s somewhere. His strikeout rate will be a question and if it’s high, he’ll have a bad BA. He might need adjusting to the bigs.

Ira says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:17 pm

Eno’s ranking for Rios is absurd.

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:25 pm

I’d say that saying anything definitive about a guy with his history might be absurd, but obviously I’m more pessimistic than most about Rios.

- rotofan says:
  
  July 12, 2012 at 8:39 pm
  
  The thing is you are saying something definitive by the very nature of your ranking.
  
  It’s true Rios has had some truly awful seasons mixed in with some good and very good seasons. It’s also true he was a mess last year and that he wasn’t driving the ball well at the start of this year despite having a good batting average.
  
  But the fact remains he is swinging a better bat on the past 7 weeks than he has at any time in his career: His line drive rate is pushing 30% and of his last 10 home runs, 2 have been non doubters, 7 have been plenty, 1 has been just enough and none have been lucky (according to hot tracker).
  
  There’s also a reasonable explanation to explain his emergence. After dealing with the head case that is Ozzie Guillen and the burden of crushing disappointment that was the White Sox season last year, Rios is clearly enjoying playing for a much more level-headed Robin Ventura for a team and an offence that has out-performed expectations. Rios has always struck me as a player more effective than most by his surroundings, so while some regression from his torris hitting is entirely possible, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t finish with his best numbers since his early years with Blue Jays, performance that combines power, speed and batting average.
- Eno Sarris says:
  
  July 13, 2012 at 4:02 am
  
  I don’t been to be flip, but Rios has been bad in good situations before. He’s been all over the map if you ask me. You can book him for .270 15/15 most years, but anything beyond is a bit of a crapshoot.

Taylor Brooker says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:19 pm

Why is Victorino ranked higher than guys like Craig, Morse, or even Rasmus? Rasmus and Victorino’s average is similar and the power production is far more valuable than Victorino’s speed… right? Or are you predicting a surge with the Phillies getting healthy?

Eno Sarris says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:29 pm

I don’t think Rasmus’ and Victorino’s BA will be similar going forward. Morse is still an open question. Craig would be higher without the injury and PT issues. I like Victorino.

kid says:

July 12, 2012 at 5:57 pm

Jason Kubel @42 is criminally low considering he’s on pace for 29 HR, 114 RBI with a .290+ batting average. I mean sure, he won’t steal anything, but that’s pretty stellar.

Eno Sarris says:

July 13, 2012 at 4:03 am

We aren’t really in the business of on-pace projecting. I doubt he puts up that batting average, he’s getting platooned — or he should at least be platooned on your fantasy team — and that should make hitting those power and RBI numbers tough.

- kid says:
  
  July 13, 2012 at 11:27 am
  
  .289/.345/.464 vs. Lefties, .295/.378/.568 vs. Righties. Hardly warrants platooning in real life or in fantasy.

SJ says:

July 12, 2012 at 6:22 pm

Quentin Berry seems low, is playing time an issue? Crisp low also… I am looking at both for saves, can I count in those?

Eno Sarris says:

July 13, 2012 at 4:03 am

If you’re looking for steals, yeah they are good, I’d take Crisp myself.

Adam says:

July 12, 2012 at 6:50 pm

Pleasantly surprised to see Trout actually top 10. I thought he would be in like the 30′s behind Alex Gordon and Kendrick lol.

Isn’t Cody Ross low? He’s finally in a hitters park that fits his swing. He missed a month or so and still has 13 homers, I can see another 15 coming in the second half.

thalooch says:

July 12, 2012 at 7:23 pm

Ellsbury and Crawford are back and should resume full-time AB’s shortly. How is Ross going to get full-time AB’s?

- Jay29 says:
  
  July 12, 2012 at 10:56 pm
  
  I think he’s the best RF they’ve got right now. I can see him sharing some time with Sweeney and Nava, and maybe Kalish, but he’s a superior hitter to those guys right now. And if Sweeney gets traded, like the Sox want, Ross has a chance at a really nice 2nd half as a starter in a much-improved lineup.
- Shane says:
  
  July 13, 2012 at 8:51 am
  
  Ross will be in RF. Kalish was already been sent back, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sweeney was traded and Nava made the 4th OF.
Rob says:

July 13, 2012 at 4:07 pm

“I thought he would be in like the 30′s behind Alex Gordon and Kendrick lol.”

Why would anyone in their right mind think that?

Gus says:

July 12, 2012 at 7:12 pm

Ichiro? Is otteneau a Singles league or something?

thalooch says:

July 12, 2012 at 7:32 pm

I would bump Choo, De Aza and Austin Jackson up a bit. They’ve got to get a little more recognition for their exemplary 1st half performances, especially Choo and Ajax. Ajax was just mentioned as being a 1st half MVP candidate on fangraphs.

Choo is displaying his customary consistency and looks like he’s over that whole DUI hiccup. Furthermore he’s always been much more productive in the 2nd half if you look at his career.

batpig says:

July 12, 2012 at 7:53 pm

yes, really shocked to see Choo so low considering he’s back to being the same player as he was before his injury-dampened 2011 season.

.299/.384/.492 with 10 HR, 9 SB, 34 RBI and a whopping 57 R. No way he should be behind “Mr. Regression” Alex Gordon, I’d take him over Nelson Cruz too. Probably should be where Mr. Victorino is.

Jay29 says:

July 12, 2012 at 8:38 pm

I’m a little surprised to see Rajai Davis that low. He’s got a full time job now, at least until Snider or Thames or somebody comes back, and that’s far from certain. He can steal 50 in a full season and in that TOR lineup he can put up some decent counting stats. Is it just the BA that drags him that far down?

July 12, 2012 at 8:40 pm

Also no Ryan Doumit?

July 12, 2012 at 8:45 pm

OK sorry for the triple post but…

- Who is this “Mike” Stanton you speak of?

- What about minor league OF? I think I prefer to own a guy like Starling Marte over guys like Schierholtz and Gwynn.

Nick says:

July 12, 2012 at 8:53 pm

Is Zach Sanders aware that he doesn’t need to make his predictions by using a dartboard? Ethier at 11, lol.

tkirks21 says:

July 12, 2012 at 9:23 pm

Podhorzer ranking Willingham at 64 seems a little strange. I think he’s proven he can hit for power in any park and should be good for an easy 30 homers if he stays healthy. Can’t see 63 guys I’d rather have.

Mike Podhorzer says:

July 13, 2012 at 9:29 am

Don’t expect his HR pace to continue (career best HR/FB rate right now) and assuming that drops off, he’s back to being a .250 hitter again, which hurts. Is that any different than a Nick Swisher?

Zac L says:

July 12, 2012 at 9:35 pm

Hey I need some trade help in a 12 team keeper league, there are 12 active batter spots with a 12 batter bench and I got sent a trade offer where I’d receive Adam Jones, rendon, and ackley for Phillips and Myers…. I’m scared about giving up Myers, but jones is the best player as of now in the trade, but what about rendon I haven’t heard much news on him latley, when’s his ETA and what’s his projected numbers, I feel like he’s the deal breaker in this, but idk what are your guys thoughts? Accept or decline?

Ashman says:

July 12, 2012 at 11:13 pm

I was surprised that Beltran was so “low,” but nobody above him deserves to drop so I guess it just speaks to the depth of elite OF this year

cs3 says:

July 13, 2012 at 1:10 am

anyone else think Zimmerman has explaining to do?
Its obvious his rankings are not up to date.
Stanton at 8?
Stubbs at 32?

and there are a bunch of guys he has ranked twice as high as the average of the other 3 writers, which just seems absurd.
for example:
Bautista – 10 (avg – 5)
Beltran – 30 (avg – 15.5)
Craig – 55 (avg – 26)
Harper – 62 (avg – 32)
Morse – 69 (avg – 30)
Morales – 100 (avg – 54)

how can these all be rationalized?

cs3 says:

July 13, 2012 at 1:11 am

or twice as low, or however you want to look at it

Jason says:

July 13, 2012 at 5:51 am

This is a common refrain. There’s a simple and perfectly reasonable explanation that’s been given: Zimmerman’s rankings are based heavily on ZiPS, rather than a more intuitive method like the others.

Wade8813 says:

July 13, 2012 at 2:29 am

I’m dismantling my team in a Keep Any 4 league (with OB and Holds as extra categories). I may have the option of my choice of CarGo or Braun. Thoughts?

Pat says:

July 13, 2012 at 10:28 am

It’s Braun and it isn’t even close…

Brian says:

July 13, 2012 at 3:50 am

Would you drop Rizzo, Ryan Howard, or Colby Rasmus for Berkman, Markakis, or Matt Joyce? I already have Votto at first base and my other outfielders are Jay Bruce, Michael Morse, and Trout. I think I need more average and steals or do you guys think Rizzo, Ryan Howard, and Rasmus outperform Berkman (playing time and not sure if he will hit for power), Markakis, and Matt Joyce in the second half? Thanks!

Eno Sarris says:

July 13, 2012 at 4:05 am

I would drop Rizzo yes for Berkman probably, but best idea, considering the quality of possible pickups, is to shop Rizzo while he’s hot. Why not look for a closer or pair him with your overperforming pitcher for an ace type?

Keith says:

July 13, 2012 at 11:42 am

I must say, I am a bit surprised at how little love Matt Holliday is getting. He’s not living off of a BABIP spike like Trout, McCutchen, or Gonzalez. I guess it’s the lack of positional flexibility?

batpig says:

July 13, 2012 at 12:52 pm

being ranked as the #12 OF is “little love”? Who above him would you realistically drop down below Holliday? Those are all elite players.

the fact is he doesn’t really run much anymore and I’m sure a few of the authors are a bit worried about him losing PT in the 2nd half to dings like he had last year.

even if you take away some BABIP from Trout, McCutchen or CarGo they are still elite fantasy players and bring the SB element that Holliday lacks.

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Outfielder Consensus Ranks for the Second Half

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