Overvalued Catchers in 2013
We’ll be doing a wrap-up of each position once the regular season comes to an official close, but for now, let’s talk about a few of the backstops who made significant contributions to fantasy teams this year, but are likely to be overvalued next season. Whether their stats regress or whether they come at a significantly higher cost than they should, either draft pick or auction dollars, some of 2012′s fantasy heroes behind the dish just won’t measure up next season. I’m sure most readers of RotoGraphs are wary of the pitfalls, but just in case you’re new to the scene, here are a few to watch out for next season.
A.J. Pierzynski, CHW — Probably the most obvious when looking at the catcher leaderboard for 2012, Pierzynski gave his fantasy owners a dream season that won;t be easy to forget. A late-flier in most leagues and a waiver pick-up in the rest, he’s dazzled with an average that hovered around .280 while mashing 26 home runs and knocking in 74 RBI. Kick in 64 runs scored and he’s about to post career numbers here in his 15th professional season. But while there’s nothing in his batted ball data to suggest that this was some fluke season (save for a supposedly unsustainable 18.6% HR/FB), there’s also nothing to suggest that it wasn’t. However, if you’re a believer in numbers regressing to their means, then you know he’s not duplicating these stats. Far from it, in my opinion. He’s been on the downside of a career with declining numbers over the last six seasons and suddenly he’s better than he ever was before? I doubt it. But without fail, there will be someone in your league next year that will base his draft solely on 2012 totals and end up drafting Pierzynski, somewhere in the top 10, way before where he should actually go. Just don’t be that guy.
Carlos Ruiz, PHI — If Pierzynski wasn’t the most obvious, then that’s because you were probably staring at Chooch’s numbers here. Similarly to Pierzynski, Ruiz’ power numbers spiked at the ripe old age of 33. His batting average, as well. He benefited from a career-best .328 BABIP and a 15.3% HR/FB that hasn’t been this high since he played in just 27 big league games back in 2006. Ruiz’ LD% also jumped from its usual ~20.0% to a career-high of 24.3% this season. Given his levels of production in year’s past, it doesn’t seem likely that he is going to experience some sort of power growth as Yadier Molina did at the age of 28/29. His past numbers just don’t dictate some sort of senior citizen power surge. Not to mention the plantar fasciitis that shelved him for more than a month here in the second half. That’s not some injury that’s going to just go away. It’s like herpes. It’s with you for life and it’s going to hinder performance. But again, someone is going to buy into the hype of 2012 and get suckered into reaching too high for him. Again, don’t let it be you.
Joe Mauer, MIN — And here comes the less obvious and less popular declaration of overpaying. Mauer’s numbers here in 2012 have been rock solid in comparison to what he’s produced over the years. Surprisingly he stayed healthy for the most part and as of today, he ranks in the top five amongst catchers in batting average, runs scored, RBI and stolen bases. His supporters are out in full force, declaring him the best catcher in the majors not named Posey and he will, again, be one of the most highly coveted catchers in fantasy. But where he will be overvalued is not in production expectations, it will be where he is taken in drafts (or how much he’ll cost in auctions for that matter). While I would happily draft Posey and his 20-plus home runs, eventual 100-plus RBI and .300-plus average in the third or fourth round, I cannot say the same for Mauer. He’ll come off the board as the number two catcher next year, but between the injury risk, the lack of power and the potentially questionable lineup the Twins will field next season, I don’t see him even being worth a fifth or a sixth round draft choice. He’s going to go higher than a number of backstops I’d rather have as the return value from them, based on their cost, will likely be higher than what you’ll get from Mauer given his excessive price tag.
Where would you rank Salvador Perez amongst catchers going into next season? Top 5? Top 10?
I might be biased, but I’d put him in the back end of the top 10 next year…
So, don’t pay for a career year. Got it.
Well, a career year plus an excessive number of birthday candles on the cake…
“Overvalued Catchers in 2013″
Um, all of them?
I’m in an OBP league and you have to like the contribution Mauer gives you there (yes, Posey does too, I’m not arguing him over Posey). But I can keep Mauer in the 3rd round next year and I will do it gladly. Granted, 20 teams means a bit more position scarcity.
Mauer is a tough keep for me. Sure, if you know he’s staying on the field, he’s worth it. But he’s had a history of bizarre, unexplained injuries that make me leery. Bilateral leg weakness? Are you kidding me?
Where would you pick in the 3rd round? Even a healthy Mauer doesn’t strike me as a top 50 pick. Hmmm, not so sure about that one!
18/20. The problem being lack of alternatives in a deep league. If I dont keep Mauer, my guess is someone would take him in 2nd or 3rd. This year, non-kept players going there were the likes of Carl Crawford, Ichiro, Brian Wilson, Marmol…
I can’t be the only one to think catchers are almost always overvalued in a 1 catcher league. The increased injury risk makes almost any catcher a bad proposition in the early rounds. If you went catcher in the first five rounds this year, you ended up with Santana, Napoli, Wieters, Posey or Mauer. Only 2 of those guys have been worth their draft positions. And it’s not SSS….it’s any year.
Wait on catcher.
I’m with you. You have to overpay for a top 5-8 catcher, and there isn’t much difference between the 10th best and the 20th best. Even in large 1 catcher leagues, valuable resources are better spent elsewhere.
gotta disagree to some extent. agree in some ways though as well. id like to point out 2 things real quick though first.
1.) there were a ton of guys that came out of nowhere this year…this just isnt the case in most seasons…you look at Chooch, AJP, AJ Ellis, Grandal, Rosario, Salty, Sal Perez, etc…as well as several guys that got back to their pre-injury form in Mauer, Posey, etc. i dont see it next year. while there were certainly more than 10 serviceable catchers next year, im not sure i want have Chooch or AJ Ellis or AJP as my everyday catcher next year in 10-12 team leagues.
2.) there was a significant number of busts at the catchers position this year as well. between mccann, napoli, santana, mesoraco, martin, avila, ramos, soto, suzuki, etc., we saw a lot of the top drafted catchers have career-worst years or just plain awful years. again, i dont see this being the case next year either.
i guess what im trying to say is that while i wouldnt draft mauer in the 3rd or 4th round, im not waiting until the 12th-15th round and getting stuck with AJP or AJ Ellis next year either. i just dont trust them. at the same time, i think its prolly deeper as a position than it has been in many many years. i would actually prefer to get some of the younger guys in the middle rounds that have substantial upside. heres my top 15
1.) Posey
2.) C. Santana
3.) Wieters
4.) Mauer
5.) Wilin Rosario (only if hes gonna play 5 games per week)
6.) Sal Perez
7.) Napoli
8.) McCann
9.) Yadier Molina
10.) M. Montero
11.) Grandal
12.) Lucroy
13.) J. Montero
14.) Chooch
15.) Doumit (assuming he retains C eligibility)
Sleepers: Ramos, d’Arnaud, McKenry, Soto(if hes the everyday catcher in that lineup, he could produce nice numbers)
Busts: AJP, AJ Ellis, Salty, Russell Martin….i wouldnt touch any of them with a 10 ft pole
feel free to disagree or agree. i think its a very difficult position to rank to be honest with you…some big questions regarding playing time in Cincy and Colorado…im a huge Rosario guy though. i think he could be a .270/30-35HR/90-100RBI guy in Coors with Tulo, Cargo, Rutledge, and Fowler hitting ahead of him….but he needs A LOT of work on his defense, and Tracy wants to win games, so that could limit Rosario to another season like this one where he was playing only 3-4 times a week. can you imagine what his numbers would look like if he had the ABs of guys like Mauer or Posey? i cant understand for the life of me, why he isnt getting more props for NL ROY. i understand the rockies suck and so does his defense, but its not like the DBacks(Miley) are great, or Frazier had the extended success Rosario has this year. im sure i missed someone or mispelled something, so feel free to crush.
Its difficult to rank because, like I said, once the top 8-10 are gone, most of the guys are interchangeable. Some guys have more upside than others, but there are typically some question marks with those guys. I would rather wait and grab a catcher off of the scrap heap and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Matter of risk/reward.
I remember reading a great article at the hardball times a few years back that said in order to bring in a championship, your players as a whole must increase in value by 32%. In order for a guy like Mauer to be increase in value, he has to have a career year if you pick him that high. I’d rather take a surer thing and take a catcher late or off of the waiver wire. Much better chance of an increase in value.
OBP A.J. Ellis is a beast!!!
I have Pierzinski in a keeper league. I’m hanging on to him because he’ll only cost me a dollar and even if his power vanishes, he won’t hurt me in average or batter K’s like so many other low rent catchers.
worth keeping napoli for $7 for one more year? or keep a guy like profar, brett anderson or kris medlen for $1 but with much more uncertainty? i’m not sure how much of napoli’s value depends on staying in texas.
Even $7 might be too much if he puts up similar numbers to this year. Obviously if he’s playing regularly I would consider it, but that’s the problem….he never does. He only saw that kind of playing time in 2011 because of injuries. I don’t know how he would have fared had Beltre not gone down for so long.
I might be inclined to go for the upside of Anderson or Medlen. If it’s not a keeper league, then I am wary of holding Profar, even if it is for a buck.
keeper league where you can keep a guy at the same salary for 3 years. i hate keeping pitchers but i’ve got anderson/wainwright/medlen for $1 each and sale for $10. jennings @ $3 and profar/lawrie @ $1 are really my only other hitter options.
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Minklooping has a great point, but I’m interested in hearing her thoughts on AJ Ellis.
He’d look great in a sparkling pink long dress, I bet.