Pablo Sandoval’s Prolific 2009

Within a three year period, San Francisco’s Pablo Sandoval transformed from a batter struggling to get the ball out of the infield in the Low-A South Atlantic League to an offensive force in the majors.

It’s hard to remember now, but a 19 year-old Sandoval hit a tepid.265/.309/.322 with Augusta back in 2006. He swatted just one homer in 438 AB, while walking about once a week (4.7 BB%). Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America didn’t include Pablo in San Francisco’s top 30 prospects list.

Since then, Sandoval has pummeled pitchers.

The switch-hitter turned in a .287/.312/.476 triple-slash in the High-A California League in 2007. There were still plenty of skeptics, however. Sandoval split his season between catcher and first base, but his bulky 5-11, 245 pound frame kept most scouts from envisioning him as anything more than a first baseman.

He made plenty of contact (13 K%) and posted a .190 ISO, but that power output came in a circuit that favors offense. And, Sandoval continued to display an alarming lack of plate discipline (3.8 BB%). BA still didn’t include Pablo in San Fran’s top 30 prior to 2008.

In ’08, Sandoval assaulted the Cal League and the AA Eastern League for a combined .350/.394/.578 line. He showcased unprecedented pop (.228 ISO), while punching out just 12.2% of the time. Pablo’s BABIP was an enormous .375, and he drew a free pass just 6.4%. But that sort of batting blitzkrieg from a guy just old enough to buy a drink tends to garner attention.

Sandoval reached San Francisco in August, and proceeded to hit .345/.357/.490 in 145 PA. He posted a .145 ISO, while whiffing just 9.7% of the time. Pablo made contact with 92.9% of pitches within the strike zone, compared to the 87.8% MLB average.

To say that Sandoval was a liberal swinger would be a massive understatement. Pablo took a cut at a jaw-dropping 53.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He was in a whole new tier of hackery. Sandoval’s O-Swing% dwarfed the competition. Among batters with 140+ PA in ’08, the closest competitor was Vladimir Guerrero, at 45.5%. When you make Vlad the Impaler look downright conservative by comparison, that’s saying something.

Sandoval entered 2009 as an intriguing fantasy option, given his position eligibility at catcher, first base and third base.

Pablo was in some respects a polarizing player, however. Those sanguine about his future saw a guy in his early twenties with superb hitting skills and plenty of thump. Others painted a more pessimistic picture, seeing a player headed for the low end of the defensive spectrum with limited strike-zone plate discipline. Maybe he was just a switch-hitting Randall Simon.

In 2009, Sandoval silenced his critics. In 633 PA, Kung Fu Panda creamed pitchers for a .396 wOBA and a .330/.387/.556 line. Spending most of his time at third base, Pablo compiled +34.9 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, ranking 20th among all batters.

Sandoval slugged 25 homers, with a robust .226 ISO. He obliterated fastballs (+1.60 runs per 100 pitches), curveballs (+3.14) and changeups (+3.78), while being a mere mortal against sliders (-0.53).

While Pablo was far from being some beacon of discipline at the dish, he did show modest improvement in working the count.

As you might expect, opposing pitchers saw no reason to give Sandoval many pitches in the zone. Just 40.5% of Sandoval’s pitches seen crossed over the plate, the lowest rate in the majors by far (Kendry Morales had the second-lowest Zone%, at 43.7). While Pablo still lunged at outside offerings often, he did lower his O-Swing% to 41.5.

To be sure, San Francisco’s paucity of other offensive threats had something to do with Sandoval’s walk rate going from 2.7% in 2008 to 8.3% in 2009. Pablo was issued 13 intentional free passes this past year. His unintentional walk rate did climb from 1.9% in ’08 to 6.2% in ’09, though. Again, baby steps.

Sandoval has a career .356 BABIP at the big league level. Using the Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get an XBABIP of .316.

While we’re only dealing with 700-some AB’s here, that would make Sandoval more of a .290-.300 hitter going forward, as opposed to the .330-type guy on display so far. Given the additional power Pablo displayed in ’09, as well as his modest strides in controlling the zone, I think he’s a good bet to eclipse .300.

Sean Smith’s CHONE projections for the 2010 season are out. CHONE has Pablo batting .312/.356/.502 next year, which equates to a wOBA of about .373.

While it’s wise to expect some regression from Sandoval in 2010, he’ll still be a highly valuable fantasy option. He won’t be eligible at catcher anymore (just three starts in ’09), but Sandoval will still qualify at both infield corners. Just 23 years old, Kung Fu Panda is here to stay as an offensive threat.




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A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.


8 Responses to “Pablo Sandoval’s Prolific 2009”

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  1. jimbo says:

    13 intentional walks? Wonder how many of those pitches he swung at…

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  2. giantsrainman says:

    I am betting he gets his wOBA above .400 in 2010. The Ku Fu Panda is for real!

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    • Jimbo says:

      Bill James disagrees. (projects him at .399) ;-)

      I know my fake team league fairly well, but really have NO idea where to project the Panda draft-wise. I’d love to think he’s a value in the 5th round, but can’t really count on him being available much after the 3rd.

      Can’t say I trust him enough to make him the 3rd or 4th player on my team (one year league, 12 teams, 5×5).

      In addition to ADP, I’d like some source to start giving standard deviation as well. Maybe Brian Roberts and Pablo are next to each other, but the range of draft picks spent on the latter will likely be large.

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  3. quincy0191 says:

    Man, it was fun to watch Pablo hit this year. The simultaneous similarities and difference between him and Molina was startling; they both swung at everything, but Pablo made contact all the time and drove the ball much better. Watching Pablo double off a ball two feet outside the zone then seeing Molina strike out on the same pitch was both marvelous and saddening.

    But I don’t think he’ll regress; in fact, I think he’ll get even better. Pablo showed the ability to actually listen to his coaches and stop swinging at everything. His BB% in June/July and September was far ahead of where he started, and I think he’ll continue that trend. Increased BB% means pitchers will have to throw strikes, and we’ve all seen what the Panda can do with a strike. Also, he’s in a pretty intense training program this winter to drop some weight, which could improve his defense and his speed (which isn’t that bad for a guy his size).

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  4. Richie Abernathy says:

    his at bats are rich, compelling.

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  5. Eric says:

    Is it really fair to predict such a fall in his BABiP? Some players have been shown to be able to post higher than average BABiP and the last 2 season have shown that to be the norm for Sandoval

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  6. Kyle says:

    It sucks because I read up on him prior to the season and took him late in the draft as my backup catcher and backup third baseman. He got off to a pretty slow start and I ended up dropping him for Russell Branyan. Branyan was still 3B eligable for me, and he killed it for a while, so I can’t be too upset. But then the guy behind me in 2nd place picked him up and he proceeded to go bananas. Fail.

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  7. Ted Lehman says:

    He only played three games at catcher in ’09. I’m not sure he’ll be C-eligible in a lot of formats, which would be a blow to his value.

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