Bullpen Report: April 28, 2016

Long after last evening’s Bullpen Report published, news broke of Huston Street landing on the disabled list with a strained oblique. Street first felt discomfort while warming up Wednesday and the Angels subsequently called upon right-hander Joe Smith in the ninth frame to convert a save. Smith surrendered a hit, but induced a game-ending double play courtesy of Mike Moustakas to earn his first save of the year on eight pitches (seven strikes).
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MASH Report (4/28/16)

Travis d’Arnaud was placed on the DL with a strained rotator cuff

Returning from the DL after 15 days, d’Arnaud added, is a possibility in his mind. But the Mets are not committing to a timeline, fully aware of how many injuries their starting catcher has suffered in his young career. Among d’Arnaud’s library of past maladies are a partially torn knee ligament, a hyperextended left elbow, multiple broken bones and a concussion. He was hitting .196 through 13 games this season, with zero home runs and one RBI.

“It’s always going to be wait-and-see, but there are two positions where arm injuries can be pretty devastating, and one’s behind the plate,” manager Terry Collins said. “We’ll wait to see, rest him a few days, see how he comes out of that. And then when he starts to rehab back, you’ll see how long it’s going to take. It’s certainly something we’ve got to keep a close eye on.”

It seems like d’Arnaud could be out for around a month.

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 4/28/16

Same time next week at 2:00 PM Central!

2:03
Paul Sporer: We’ll start soon! And it’s all Drake all day, so I don’t wanna hear it, haters. So geeked for Views from the Six
2:03
Mr. Wrestling IV: Hooray!!! 3 pm eastern = 2 pm central!
2:03
Paul Sporer: that is how time zones work!
2:03
Matt: Did we miss the window to sell on Lorenzo Cain?
2:03
Paul Sporer: I mean, if you’re super-worried, it’s probably not a good time to sell. But I’m not worried.
2:03
Matt: Was Tyler White merely just a mirage?

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DFS Stacking: A Data-Driven Approach

A Better Way to Create Optimal Combinations of Players

Many DFS players utilize a fairly unscientific approach to creating stacks (combinations of batters from one particular team) when building lineups. Rather than making educated guesses at optimal combinations though, it’s more effective to approach the strategy from an objective standpoint that accounts for the interdependence between players within the same game. Batters in different spots in the lineup will be affected differently by performances from other batters within the lineup depending on how many slots they are away from one another. Furthermore, one batter’s specific skillsets and projected rates of outcomes like home runs, steals, and strikeouts will affect others with different specific skillsets and projected rates.

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The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 28

Agenda

  1. Rainy Days
  2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  3. Daily DFS
  4. SaberSim Observations
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets
  6. Factor Grid

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RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 04/28/2016

Episode 145 – Nick The Stick

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss the White Sox winning streak, Jose Quintana being much better than just a streamer, the Atlanta Braves power surge, Joe Girardi’s weird opinions on shifting, Matt on the ground with a weather report, seeing upside in the Phillies, sharing a Sklar Brothers bit about the names of the Cardinals outfielders, and being forced into a tough pitching decision by the small slates.

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Play

Knuckleball Hangovers

WAR might tell you otherwise, and won-lost record certainly does, but so far this season, the ace of the Red Sox’s staff has been knuckleballer Steven Wright. Last night, Wright allowed just three hits while striking out seven batters in seven innings. Sure, it was against the Braves, so that might not count, but even before that start, Wright had a 1.40 ERA and had faced the Blue Jays twice and the Astros once in Houston. With all of the problems the Red Sox have elsewhere in their rotation, Wright seems to be earning himself a job for the rest of this season.

This post isn’t about Wright. It’s about the batters who will face Wright. Earlier this week, ESPN’s Eric Karabell wondered on his podcast whether hitters experience a hangover effect in the days after they face a knuckleballer, a question I thought would be fun to try to answer.

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Pineda and Severino and Buchholz and Fiers, Oh My

Let’s begin our discussion of a foursome of American League starting pitchers saddled with inflated ERAs by presenting two tables first:

Pitching Metric YoY Correlations
Metric YoY Correlation 2002-2012
WHIP 0.430
ERA 0.373
LOB% 0.238
BABIP 0.235
HR/FB -0.029
SOURCE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/basic-pitching-metric-correlation-1955-2012-2002-2012/

Pitching Metric Stabilization Points
Metric Stabilization Point
HR/FB 400 fly balls
BABIP 2,000 balls in play
SOURCE: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

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Roto Riteup: April 28, 2016

690 home runs. Let that sink in for a second. You may not own or even like Alex Rodriguez, but that is a jaw-dropping number of homers. He hit the 690th of his career in his return to the lineup Wednesday, his left oblique apparently feeling a little better. He’s 24 home runs away from Babe Ruth for third all-time, and whether rooting for or against him, that could be a fun late-season chase to watch if things go well (ZiPS and Steamer project him for 20 and 17 more).

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Bullpen Report: April 27, 2016

Jeanmar Gomez continues to hold down the fort in Philadelphia. The righty polished off Jeremy Hellickson‘s gem tonight, tossing a 1-2-3 ninth inning (with a strikeout) for his sixth save of the season. While his 2.08 ERA is certainly better than his peripherals would indicate, he legitimately has pitched well to open 2016. His (admittedly tiny sample) SwStr% is a career high (10%) as is his 15% K%-BB%. No one is pretending that Gomez is suddenly an elite stopper, but (assuming he can continue to post a low-3.00s FIP) he probably needs to be vaulted out of the “least stable” tier. He’s probably sitting somewhere between 20th and 25th of MLB closers I’d buy right now — plenty desirable in a 12-team mixed league as a 2nd or 3rd closer option, especially since the Phillies don’t look as totally, ridiculously, hopelessly lost as projected.

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