The Sleeper and the Bust 7/23/2015 – Trade Season Begins

Episode 255

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris analyze the two big trades of the day and then talk about the rumors w/Carlos Carrasco. They check in on the performances of Ubaldo Jimenez, Masahiro Tanaka, Yunel Escobar, Chris Tillman, and R.A. Dickey. They finish by discussing the SP ranks at RG.

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Play

Midseason Rankings – Relief Pitchers

We made it to the finish line! Our final position in the midseason rankings hits on the most volatile aspect of our beloved game: the relievers. There’s only one save that can be awarded in any single game so opportunity is obviously extremely important, but damn-near impossible to predict. Manager whim and supporting cast (hitters, defense, and starting pitchers) are two variables that greatly impact said opportunity and while we can foster our best guesses, it’s still difficult to ever know. There’s a reason that the “draft skills, not roles” adage coined by Ron Shandler has become so popular with relievers specifically.

Once again, the Bullpen Report crew has joined the party to rank the relievers with Dan & myself both adding ours in, too. Alan, Darren, Colin, and Ben round out the group for six sets of rankings. Want to see how guys have shifted since the June update? Find those ranks here.

For this update, Paul ranked 55 arms, Alan, Colin, and Ben did 50 apiece, Darren did 48, and Dan had 53. Guys +1 of those figures constitute an “unranked”.

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MASH Report (7/23/15) With Specific Injury Return Times

• Here is a starting point for a dataset I have wanted to put together for a while, the return times for various injuries. I started with just a few requests today, but if you want more, please feel free request more in the comments.

Injury Average Day Max days Min Day Standard Dev Samples
Fractured Wrist 63 185 13 40 55
Broken Wrist 77 182 25 46 10
Fractured Finger 39 103 6 23 46
Plantar Faciitis 43 133 15 33 11
Strained Hamstring 30 178 4 20 177
Strained Oblique (pitchers) 32 86 6 16 43
Strained Oblique (hitters) 29 100 7 17 104
Sprain/Torn/Dislocated Finger 43 101 10 22 29

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The Daily Grind: Ottoneu Conundrum, Godley, Tillman

Agenda

  1. Ottoneu Conundrum
  2. Daily DFS – Price, Godley
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, DeSclafani, Byrd, Gose
  5. Factor Grid

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RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 7/23/2015

Episode 75 – Pop A Few Angels

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson discuss Brad’s continued beach vacation, a stark split slate, attempting to identify Zack Godley, some shenanigans between Devon Travis and Tyler Clippard, R.A. Dickey and Jeremy Guthrie subbing in as starters, the affordability of Dodgers outfielders, and David Price making himself a necessary option.

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Scott’s Miscellany – DL and Call-Up Player Pace Comparisons

The title of the article is an allusion to Schott’s Miscellany, which you should definitely check out if you never have and feel compelled to know that a group of larks is called an exaltation or that a member of the 32nd degree of Freemasonry is known as a Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret.

–DL and Call-Up Player Pace Comparisons–

When making player comparisons on fantasy statistics pages, it’s easy to get blinded by seasonal totals. Those work pretty well over the first month of the season, but now that we are a week into the second half, many players have experienced DL stints or have been called up since the start of the season. Even for players who have made a minimum stay on the DL, the lost plate appearances over a two-week period can be enough to hold them behind comparable players in the counting statistics.

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ERA-FIP, and the Importance of Situational Context

I like a lot of pitchers who have unperformed this year. With strikeout and walk rates (K%, BB%) of 20.5 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively, Drew Hutchison delivers everything I want from a mid-rotation fantasy starter. With a 5.19 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, however, he delivers a flaming bag of feces to my doorstep.

The same can be said for Taijuan Walker who, after a terribly rough start to the season, dazzled for seven straight starts before recently tossing three stinkers. With plate discipline ratios better than Hutchison’s and just 22 years old, Walker demonstrates the skill set and ceiling that have earned him consensus top-20 honors on prospect lists from 2012 through 2014. Yet his 5.06 ERA and 1.29 WHIP have left fantasy owners not only disappointed but also reeling.

Hutchison and Walker share a common trait: their ERAs dwarf their fielding independent pitching (FIP) statistics. FIP was designed to demonstrate a pitcher’s true performance in light of the events he can control — that is, events independent of balls put into play at the mercy of the defense supporting him (among other things).

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Roto Riteup: July 23, 2015

Today’s Roto Riteup is unofficially sponsored by the film The Untouchables. As a mostly unrelated note, my old Counter-Strike 1.5/1.6 team owned the #UnTouchable mIRC channel on Gamesurge for years. So, there’s that.

On today’s agenda:
1. Jung-ho Kang‘s hitting streak
2. David Freese to the disabled list
3. Streaming Pitching Options
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Bullpen Report: July 22, 2015

• While it continues to be a committee in Chicago, it appears Jason Motte is top dog in the Cubbie bullpen at the present. The former Cardinal stopper racked up another save today, notching number six with a pair of punchouts. Motte appears to be almost back to full strength after Tommy John surgery a few years ago, with his fastball velocity only a mph off where it was in 2012 (before he went under the knife). The renewed velocity hasn’t led to a huge strikeout jump, however, with the righty currently owning what would be a career-worst 15% mark. His SwStr% rate is also down, but he is continuing to get good linear weights on the fastball, so it’s unclear whether his stuff is flat or he’s just inducing weak contact (his Hard% is his lowest since 2011). Regardless, the low strikeout rate is helping keep his xFIP at a mediocre 4.61, so while he has value right now because he’s getting the opportunities, the possibility of regression exists. Hector Rondon got the “W” today and still owns a sexy 1.93/2.82 SIERA combination, so I’d cuff Motte with him in all leagues where Rondon has been dropped. Additionally, Rafael Soriano is now in the mix, but with peripherals only marginally better than Motte’s over the last few years, he’s less appetizing to me (besides the whole proven closer(TM) thing, I guess).

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The Opposite Effect: Mike Moustakas Edition

To me, the saying “opposites attract” is all about baseball, and not just because I’m single. Of course the “opposite” in this context means hitting the ball the other way. Now as you probably guessed from the title, I’ve taken a keen interest in Mike Moustakas smacking the ball to the opposite field this season, a new development for the left-handed hitting third baseman. He owns an impressive .297/.357/.441 batting line, good for a .349 wOBA. A number of things have improved in Moustakas’ game this season, but we’ll first focus on his batted ball splits. The defensive shifts haven’t paid off against him this season when compared to prior years, and the table below helps show why. Read the rest of this entry »