Today let’s take a look at 3 pitchers that expect to make a start sometime this week after returning from the DL. With all three pitchers, it may be advisable to sit them for their first game back in order to see where each one’s fastball stands and to make sure that they don’t immediately re-injure themselves.
All the percentages owned are from ESPN.
Jake Peavy (shoulder) 34.5% owned – Jake is scheduled to pitch Wednesday for the White Sox vs. the Angels. The 29 year old made a AAA rehab start Thursday, throwing 100 pitches, striking out 5, walking only 1. The team has reported that his fastball has maxed out at 93 MPH in a bullpen session which is generally in line with his past numbers. A comment from a fan at the AAA game put his fastball in the mid 80’s, which is about 6 MPH less than he was previously throwing. It follows, then, that speed will be the main value to watch on Wednesday night. If it is in the low 90s, buy or keep. If he is not able to get the ball into the 90’s, he might be droppable or tradeable if he happens to get a lucky win.
Joe Blanton (elbow) 2.1% owned – Tonight, Joe makes his 5th start of the season against the Florida Marlins. I figured his ownership rate would be a little higher, but I expect a leap tomorrow if he performs decently. He was actually putting up decent numbers before his injury. He had a K/BB of 2.83 and a 55% ground ball rate. His ERA stands at 5.92, but should regress lower since his FIP and xFIP stand at 3.47 and 3.34. Joe may not be an ideal starter, but with many owners having their teams decimated by injuries, he looks like a nice pickup coming off his injury.
Carlos Carrasco (elbow) 0.2% owned – Carlos is supposed to return and start for the Indians sometime this week. It looks like he may be starting Wednesday since scheduled pitcher Jeanmar Gomez was optioned to the minors today. His 2011 walk rate is decent but not great (3.10) in his 5 starts this season, but his strikeout rate (5.59) needs a little work. His ERA (4.97), FIP (3.28) and xFIP (4.17) definitely show how his season has gone so far. He is letting quite a few runners score as seen with with ERA. Those runs are not coming from home runs (2.9 HR/FB), even though his FB rate is up 8% over his career average. Carlos has the chance to have a nice season if he can get his strikeout rate up. With an 8.8% swinging strike rate (8.5% is average), that is certainly possible.
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