Pitching Streamers For 9/23 Through 9/29

It’s the final week of the regular season! This makes for the perfect opportunity to stream as the ratio categories should be pretty locked in at the moment, while the upside from some additional wins and strikeouts likely far outweigh any downside from an implosion or two. Here are this week’s recommendation, while sticking with under 50% ownership on CBS.

Monday

Charlie Morton @ CHC (Jeff Samardzija)

Once again I’m recommending Morton as he has yet another strong matchup. It’s somewhat understandable given his sketchy history that fantasy owners are still a bit suspect of the worm-killing right-hander. But increased fastball velocity has led to the best SwStk% of his career, while his control has improved. Combine that with league leading ground ball ways in front of an excellent Pirates defense and you have yourself a pretty solid, and safe, fantasy starter.

Yordano Ventura @ SEA (Brandon Maurer)

Here’s a bonus second recommendation for Monday as the flame-throwing rookie gets a strong matchup against a light-hitting Mariners lineup in a pitcher’s park. Despite lighting up the radar gun by averaging 98 mph with his fastball during his Major League debut, he induced few swinging strikes, posting a SwStk% of just 3.5%. But that should jump of course and he has posted strong strikeout rates everywhere he’s pitched. He’ll also be facing a Seattle team that ranks fifth in baseball in strikeout percentage.

Tuesday

Tyson Ross vs ARZ (Wade Miley)

It boggles my mind that Ross is owned in just 45% of CBS leagues. I am officially announcing today that he will be one of my favorite 2014 sleepers, just as Andrew Cashner was for me this year. Speaking of Cashner, Ross is quite similar in that he features a high velocity fastball and complements that with an excellent slider. He is also a ground ball pitcher and has just so-so control, something that Cashner was considered to have prior to this year’s improvement.

Wednesday

James Paxton vs KC (Ervin Santana)

The second rookie streaming option recommended, I analyzed Paxton’s prospects just last week. An 11/7 K:BB ratio over 17 innings, along with a 4.51 SIERA versus 2.12 ERA, aren’t exactly screaming must-add in fantasy leagues, but he throws hard and induces ground balls. His biggest issue at the moment is control, but fortunately the Royals have posted the fourth worst walk rate versus left-handers this season.

Thursday

Zach McAllister @ MIN (Andrew Albers)

I believe I may have recommended McAllister in every single streamer article. The Indians have really had a soft schedule in the last couple of weeks, which has caused me to continue to identify a pitcher with a 4.47 SIERA a decent option. His ability to outperform his SIERA is due primarily to his HR/FB rate suppression, which is playing with fire. Luckily, he faces a Twins team that ranks just 19th in baseball in ISO at pitcher friendley Target Field.

Friday

Burch Smith @ SF (Ryan Vogelsong)

Last week I recommended Smith for the first time as he faced a tough Dodgers offense. This time, he’ll take on a much weaker Giants attack. Since returning to the Padres rotation, Smith has started 3 games and has posted a 23/11 K:BB ratio over 18 innings. The walk rate is out of character as he has shown sterling control throughout his minor league career. His F-Strike% is also well above the league average, so there’s a clear disconnect here and I would expect the walk rate to drop precipitously. The other good news — his SwStk% of nearly 14% is fantastic and would lead baseball if he qualified.

Saturday

Wily Peralta @ NYM (Aaron Harang)

Facing the Mets equals automatic recommendage and it’s yet another week that I am going with Peralta. Did you know that he has only allowed more than 3 runs in a start once over his last 10 outings? I don’t usually care for just focusing on runs allowed, especially in some small sample size, but his performance makes it surprising that he’s owned in just 29% of CBS leagues. Although his control comes and goes, his ground ball tendency and improved strikeout ability should limit the blowups. And it would take some really bad pitching to blow up against the Mets.

Sunday

On the final day of the 2013 regular season, no starting pitcher fits the criteria that I feel comfortable recommending. Hopefully you’ll have your league titles wrapped up by then anyway!




Print This Post

Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.


26 Responses to “Pitching Streamers For 9/23 Through 9/29”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Joey says:

    Too little too late but McCarthy is a sweet spot start for today vs the Padres. He has outstanding numbesr vs them this year and will be pitching in Petco. His FIP/XFIP is like a full run lower than his ERA…feeling pretty safe with it.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. marjinwalker says:

    Maybe Peralta doesn’t start against the Mets because of his blister problem?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Zimmerman says:

    Thanks for tips. Ross is at SF on Sunday. Recommend? Thanks.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. BeckhamsTears says:

    Thoughts on these:
    I play with a few streamers and have to do my own defensive streaming, so I do my best to limit their options, especially at crunch time.

    9/24
    Miner PHI v MIA

    9/26
    Albers MIN v CLE
    Volquez LAD v SF
    Gutherie KC v CWS
    Hellweg MIL v NYM

    9/27
    Torres NYM v MIL

    9/28
    Petit SF v SD
    McCarthy ARI v WAS
    Harang NYM v MIL

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Zimmerman says:

    Need ks and not much on waiver wire. Whip and era pretty locked in. Trust j Happ vs white sox and rays or stick with a closer, either Nathan or Kenley? Thank you!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • I don’t think “trust” and “Happ” should ever be in the same sentence, but if your ratios are locked in, can’t hurt to go with a 2-start guy with solid K rates. If it means anything, I’m starting Happ in my 15-team LABR league simply because I’m desperate for wins. The matchups are pretty solid at least.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Zimmerman says:

    Thanks for prompt responses. Really appreciated it. Good luck in your final week.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Nick says:

    What about Garrett Richards vs OAK today?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • The Athletics rank 8th in baseball in wOBA vs righties and feature a lineup filled with lefties. Depends on how much you could afford the risk to your ratios, but he’s not a great option.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Scottttttt says:

    Fairly certain Paxton is going Tuesday, not Wednesday.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Scottttttt says:

    Leaves Wednesday pretty barren for streaming option. Maybe Arrieta against Pitt.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Shauntell says:

    My league’s got known commodities like Hellickson, Corbin and Ogando on the waiver wire, since they’ve been struggling down the stretch. Do you like any of them this week?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Michael says:

    What do you think about Reynolds (CIN) vs the Mets on Wednesday?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. TD says:

    Unfortunately, I do need some streamers for tomorrow – Roark, Samardzjia, Quintana, Redmon, Kelly, Erasmo, Alvarez are the options and I need 2. Any suggestions?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. Chase G says:

    had Cueto ready to roll for my last start of the year…now he’s pitching Tueday…arggg! Pick ONE PLEASE.

    Ross @ SF

    Niese vs MIL

    Cumpton @ CIN

    Quintana vs KC

    Erasmo vs OAK

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Chase G says:

    Thanks Mike…great site!!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>