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Players ottoneu Loved (and Hated): 3B Edition

Posted By Chad Young On October 30, 2012 @ 8:15 am In Ottoneu,Rankings | No Comments

The past couple weeks, we have seen a few players that ottoneu and other linear weights formats feel very differently about than the traditional 5×5 format. This week…not so much. Third base appears to be a position where ottoneu, in general, doesn’t have too many problems with Zach Sanders’s end of season rankings.

In fact, the top six in Zach’s rankings were the top six in ottoneu points. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t a few players who stand out.

ottoneu’s True Loves
The only player ranked at least five spots higher in ottoneu than 5×5 is Mark Reynolds. Near the bottom of the 5×5 rankings in 28th, Reynolds was arguably unworthy of a roster spot in most formats, but in linear weights leagues such as ottoneu, Reynolds jumps all the way to 20th. The primary reason? His .335 OBP, while not great, is head and shoulders above his .221 average. In 5×5 leagues, Reynolds provides decent power and some R+RBI, but gives you no help in SB and is an absolute anchor on AVG. In ottoneu, with stolen bases not near as important and OBP replacing AVG, the rest of his portfolio isn’t so bad. He was still, at best, a low-end 3B, but if you when you need a Util, or in leagues where there is a corner infield slot, that’s a big difference.

The most fantasy-relevant 3B with ottoneu linear weights mobility is Martin Prado. Prado, 11th in 5×5, jumps to 7th in ottoneu. 10 HR and 17 SB doesn’t seem like the recipe for higher ottoneu value than 5×5 value, but Prado makes it work primarily by playing an awful lot. 156 games and 690 plate appearances creates a lot of opportunities and in a points league, opportunities are the key. In points per PA, Prado ranks not 7th, but 17th among 3B. It brings up an interesting factor to consider in ottoneu leagues – sometimes the players atop these rankings are not actually the best players. Prado ranked seventh total, but pairing up 15th ranked Kyle Seager with 22nd ranked Chipper Jones would have given you almost the same number of points. This cuts both ways – on the one hand, you don’t want to overvalue a guy just because he plays everyday, but on the other, counting on a single player in a single roster spot, has some value.

The other three ottoneu loves with fantasy relevance are Daniel Murphy, Chris Johnson, and David Freese. The first two jumped four spots each (from 20 to 16 and 22 to 18, respectively), while Freese moved from up three spots (13 to 10). Murphy and Johnson come from the Prado school of value, ranking higher in total points than they do in points per PA. Freese actually moves up even higher on a per PA basis. His low SB in 5×5 hurts him at a position where 11 players reached double digits, but those come off the books in linear weights, and the rest of his stats play quite well.

ottoneu’s Worst Enemies
Owners across the fantasy-sphere were disappointed in the season they got from Brett Lawrie, but it was even worse for those in ottoneu. Ranked 19th in 5×5, Lawrie dropped eight spots to 27th in linear weights. His 13 steals provide something of a floor in 5×5, but don’t make much difference in ottoneu. He only managed 11 HR in his sophomore campaign and his BB% dropped to 6.2%, meaning that his decent .273 AVG wasn’t matched by his weak .324 OBP. His RBI totals were low, but 73 runs buoyed his 5×5 value without helping him in ottoneu.

Two players were ranked seven slots lower in ottoneu tha 5×5, but for very different reasons. Mike Aviles, 25th in Sanders’s rankings, falls to 32nd in mine. Like Lawrie, he loses credit for his stolen bases and his OBP is even worse, not even cracking .300. Jose Bautista, on the other hand, is sort of the anti-Prado. Ranked fifth on a per PA basis, Bautista’s injury kept him from climbing the total rankings any higher. Actually, that fifth ranking itself is interesting. It’s no surprise (or at least not a big one) that he ranked behind Miguel Cabrera, and considering the season Edwin Encarnacion put up, that shouldn’t be a suprise either. But seeing both Adrian Beltre and Aramis Ramirez ranked ahead of Bautista, even when you account for the injury, caught me off guard.

Finally, Chris Davis was a solid starter in 5×5 (ranked ninth), but dropped to 13th in ottoneu. He traded in 160 R+RBI and a decent .270 average, and instead posted a sub-optimal OBP (.326). His power (33 HR and 20 2B) is enough to protect his value in linear weights, and that OBP won’t sink him, but taking the runs and RBI off the board causes the drop.

A few final notes:
– Pro-rated to 650 plate appearance, the top six are still the top six…but they become seven with the addition of Bautista. Basically, Cabrera, Encarnacion, Beltre, Ramirez, Chase Headley and David Wright were, inarguably, the six best 3B in fantasy this year.
– Chipper Jones may not have played a ton, but when he did, the man produced – he would have ranked 9th if he played a full season’s worth.
Ryan Zimmerman ranked 7th in 5×5, 8th in ottoneu, and 12th pro-rated to 650 PA, despite a bum shoulder and a weak first half – not bad.
Hanley Ramirez was 9th in total points, and 22nd pro-rated to 650 PA.

ON Rank Sanders Rank Diff Player Pts PA Pro-Rated to 650 PA
1 1   Miguel Cabrera 1267 697 1182
2 2   Edwin Encarnacion 1075 644 1085
3 4 1 Adrian Beltre 1053 654 1047
6 5 -1 Aramis Ramirez 983 630 1014
24 17 -7 Jose Bautista 604 399 984
4 3 -1 Chase Headley 1043 699 970
5 6 1 David Wright 996 670 966
10 13 3 David Freese 778 567 892
22 24 2 Chipper Jones 609 448 884
13 9 -4 Chris Davis 759 562 878
21 23 2 Todd Frazier 627 465 876
8 7 -1 Ryan Zimmerman 861 641 873
12 10 -2 Mark Trumbo 760 586 843
33 31 -2 Chris Nelson 485 377 836
29.5 30 0.5 Jeff Keppinger 535 418 832
17 15 -2 Alex Rodriguez 672 529 826
7 11 4 Martin Prado 876 690 825
14 16 2 Pedro Alvarez 728 586 808
28 26 -2 Pablo Sandoval 544 442 800
18 22 4 Chris Johnson 642 528 790
35 36 1 Jed Lowrie 466 387 783
9 8 -1 Hanley Ramirez 797 667 777
20 28 8 Mark Reynolds 631 538 762
25 27 2 Jordan Pacheco 588 505 757
29.5 32 2.5 Trevor Plouffe 535 465 748
26 29 3 Kevin Youkilis 576 509 736
11 12 1 Marco Scutaro 763 683 726
15 14 -1 Kyle Seager 727 651 726
37 38 1 Wilson Betemit 419 376 724
38 37 -1 Logan Forsythe 389 350 722
16 20 4 Daniel Murphy 673 612 715
27 19 -8 Brett Lawrie 574 536 696
19 18 -1 Mike Moustakas 633 614 670
31 34 3 Alberto Callaspo 506 520 633
23 21 -2 Michael Young 606 651 605
32 25 -7 Mike Aviles 493 546 587
39 39   Steve Lombardozzi 372 416 581
34 33 -1 Jamey Carroll 474 537 574
36 35 -1 Ryan Roberts 431 489 573
40 40   Robert Andino 291 431 439

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