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Polanco, Johnson, Roberts, Espinosa: 2B Showdown

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On June 29, 2011 @ 4:31 pm In Second Base | 11 Comments

Recently, I did a little work looking at the owned % and the likely hood that a player would be starting on a fantasy depending on the league size. Using Yahoo ownership rates, 90% ownership is probably the starting level for 10 team leagues, 85% for 12 team leagues and 10% for 20 team leagues. Originally, I figured I could just go down the ownerships of each position and get the players on the edge, but multiple positions eligibilities caused some confusion, especially for IF positions like 2B, SS and 3B. The following is the 2B who rank around the cutoff value for 12 team leagues, 85% and below.

The 4 players I will be looking at today are Placido Polanco, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Roberts and Danny Espinosa. Here are their ownership rates and stats so far this year:

Player % Owned H/AB* R HR RBI SB AVG
Plácido Polanco(Phi – 2B,3B) 83% 86/298 32 4 39 3 0.289
Kelly Johnson(Ari – 2B) 76% 61/286 43 13 34 8 0.213
Ryan Roberts(Ari – 2B,3B,OF) 73% 62/244 43 10 33 11 0.254
Danny Espinosa(Was – 2B) 70% 68/284 40 15 48 9 0.239

After looking at the these 4, here is the order I would prefer to own/play them:

1. Danny Espinosa: He has the combination of speed (9 SB) and power (15 HR) that the others don’t have. His average is not ideal, but it is expected considering his BABIP (0.264) and K% (25%). It would be nice to see him make some more contact, but his combination of speed and power from 2B is tough to find.

2. Ryan Roberts: The 30 year old is having a career season and I would ride to the end of it. He is already at career highs in SB and HR only half way through the season. His triple line slash of 0.254/0.341/.439 isn’t far this season are that his preseason ZIPS projection of 0.251/0.3290.400. Ryan was finally given the opportunity to play every day and he is taking full advantage of it.

3. Kelly Johnson: He is performing like Danny Espinosa lite. Power and speed, but can’t hit for average at all. His BABIP has risen from 0.227 at the end of March to 0.267, which has helped his AVG some. The main reason for the low AVG is that every third at bat he is striking out. If/once he begins to make contact on a more regular basis, he will instantly become more valuable.

4. Placido Polanco: He has hit for good AVG, but that is about it. He is showing little speed (5 SB) and less power (3 HR). This is a case where the abilities he has, doesn’t translate to fantasy baseball. If you need help with AVG and have plenty of speed and power, he may be worth acquiring.

As a whole, each of these 2B can make decent contributions to a fantasy team. Out of these 4 though, I will take Espinosa, which currently has the lowest ownership rate.


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