Poll v 2014: Which Group of Pitchers Performs Better?

Last year, I polled you wonderful readers asking which group of pitchers you expected to perform better during the post-All Star Break period. The two groups were composed of the pitchers whose ERAs were most disparate from their respective SIERA marks. While a one year sample wasn’t going to prove anything, I was curious what you all thought and what would actually happen. Do I put too much faith in SIERA? If the SIERA beaters from the first half still significantly outperformed the underperformers, then perhaps I either have to rethink the way I evaluate pitchers or those specific pitchers were doing something not being captured by the metric.

You can view the full results of last year’s experiment here, but the short version is this: the first half SIERA outperformers posted a nearly identical ERA as SIERA in the second half, while the underperformers underperformed again, but not nearly as dramatically as they had in the first half. So for the most part, these pitchers had no magical powers that led to SIERA under or overperformance.

Let’s take a look at this year’s groups and get voting. Note that I am using an 80 IP minimum to qualify for the list. I will be closing the polls right before the first pitch when games resume on Friday. At the end of the season, I will revisit this post and publish the results of the voting, as well as the performances of the pitcher groups. For the record, I vote for the third option. I think it will be close between the two groups, with Group A continuing to outperform their SIERA, but only marginally this time, while Group B underperforms marginally.

Group A – The SIERA Outperformers

Name IP K% BB% BABIP LOB% HR/FB ERA SIERA ERA-SIERA
Chris Young 109.1 13.8% 8.6% 0.209 82.7% 8.1% 3.21 5.57 -2.36
Mark Buehrle 126.1 13.9% 6.1% 0.293 81.1% 6.0% 2.64 4.51 -1.87
Adam Wainwright 138 21.7% 5.1% 0.250 82.0% 3.3% 1.83 3.36 -1.53
Alfredo Simon 116.2 16.0% 6.0% 0.232 85.1% 13.1% 2.70 4.02 -1.32
Josh Beckett 103.2 23.1% 7.8% 0.235 86.0% 11.9% 2.26 3.55 -1.29
Henderson Alvarez 120 14.7% 4.4% 0.312 77.3% 7.6% 2.63 3.69 -1.06
Jon Niese 103.1 17.3% 6.5% 0.283 77.3% 8.2% 2.96 3.96 -1.00
Johnny Cueto 143.2 25.1% 6.2% 0.221 79.7% 10.1% 2.13 3.08 -0.95
Anibal Sanchez 94.2 18.4% 6.6% 0.251 66.1% 3.0% 3.04 3.98 -0.94
Tommy Milone 96.1 15.1% 6.4% 0.262 75.8% 9.3% 3.55 4.48 -0.93
Average 115.2 18.0% 6.3% 0.255 79.6% 8.0% 2.64 3.98 -1.34

Group B – The SIERA Underperformers

Name IP K% BB% BABIP LOB% HR/FB ERA SIERA ERA-SIERA
Colby Lewis 84 18.4% 6.6% 0.410 65.0% 8.9% 6.54 4.15 2.39
Brandon McCarthy 116.1 19.4% 4.2% 0.346 66.2% 18.8% 4.80 3.06 1.74
Ricky Nolasco 103.2 15.7% 6.1% 0.362 68.7% 12.2% 5.90 4.29 1.61
Edwin Jackson 105.1 20.8% 10.5% 0.344 64.4% 11.7% 5.64 4.18 1.46
Justin Masterson 98 20.6% 12.4% 0.350 65.0% 10.2% 5.51 4.08 1.43
Mike Minor 83.1 21.4% 6.5% 0.343 76.1% 14.9% 4.86 3.67 1.19
Marco Estrada 107 20.5% 7.8% 0.253 77.8% 17.3% 4.96 4.08 0.88
Stephen Strasburg 125 28.5% 5.0% 0.347 70.6% 12.1% 3.46 2.59 0.87
Wade Miley 127 22.4% 7.2% 0.289 71.0% 15.7% 4.18 3.45 0.73
Phil Hughes 121.2 21.6% 2.2% 0.341 69.4% 6.0% 3.92 3.25 0.67
Average 107.1 21.1% 6.8% 0.336 69.4% 12.8% 4.88 3.63 1.25

 


 




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Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.


2 Responses to “Poll v 2014: Which Group of Pitchers Performs Better?”

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  1. Kevin says:

    No poll link?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Ruki Motomiya says:

    I picked Group A, but that is largely due to the pitchers within: It wouldn’t surprise me to, for example, see Anibal Sanchez post a lower SIERA the rest of the way and thus not “outperform” it but perform well. Buerhle frequently outperforms metrics. Waino might not be a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher but I bet he can post a better SIERA too. Cueto might not regress all the way and so on. And a lot of the SIERA underperofmrers either still have a high SIERA or a history of underperformance, so that is a bit worrying. I also feel that while not close enough for Option C, that it will still be fairly close.

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