If you are familiar with my feelings on pitchers, you know that I put little stock in ERA over smaller samples. Instead, I choose to largely ignore perhaps the most accepted metric to describe a pitcher’s performance by focusing on his peripherals and ERA estimators, my favorite of which is SIERA. Sure, over a long career, ERA is most certainly the better of the two to judge a player’s performance, but at the all-star break of a season, give me SIERA. With most starting pitchers having thrown only about 120 innings, the sample size remains far too small for ERA to provide significant predictive value over the remainder of the season.
Of course, it’s hard to ignore ERA. Do you think a Matt Cain owner wants to hear that his pitcher has simply suffered from some poor fortune? Of course not. It’s human nature to place a greater emphasis on the most recent past (recency bias) and since ultimately it’s the earned runs that count, not the imaginary expected runs SIERA believes a pitcher should have allowed, then ERA is the statistic that is focused on.
So as we sit here and wonder how Jeff Locke and Travis Wood parlayed fantastic defensive support into an All-Star appearance, I decided that it would be fun to play a little game. Below are two groups of pitchers. Group A is composed of the 10 pitchers whose ERA sits most below their SIERA marks. Group B, on the other hand, features the 10 pitchers whose ERA exceed their SIERA marks by the largest amount. The game is simple: vote for which group of pitchers posts a better ERA after the All-Star break through the remainder of the season. Don’t forget to also vote for which range each group’s ERA will fall into through the rest of the season.
I will be closing the polls right before the first pitch when games resume on Friday. At the end of the season, I will revisit this post and publish the results of the voting, as well as the performances of the pitcher groups. For the record, I vote for group B.
Group A – The SIERA Outperformers
|Jorge de la Rosa||109.1||16.6%||8.5%||0.294||76.4%||6.7%||3.21||4.32||-1.11|
Group B – The SIERA Underperformers