The baseball world went gaga for Buster Posey after he was called up to the bigs and destroyed major league pitchers during the month of July, immediately after the Giants decided to deal Bengie Molina and play Posey everyday.
While players can have big months, Posey’s July was completely off the heezy. Not so much because of his .424 BABIP and .417 batting average, but because he hit seven homers, and another seven extra base hits. His wOBA for July? A whopping .487, with a 210 wRC+. Crazy, to say the least. There was no reason to think he’d produce at a level anywhere near his July, so seeing what he could do when his numbers stabilized was going to be crucial to estimating his value.
Even when he cooled down, his numbers from August weren’t shabby. He hit two jacks and nine doubles, kept his strikeout rate at a reasonable level, and continued to smoke like drives. You really couldn’t have asked from much more from a rookie catcher, but I’d bet some owners were disappointed.
Posey’s August was much more indicative of what we’ll see from him next year. Although, when you compare it to July, almost anything would have been. If you look closer, you can see that August was very reasonable and looks right, regardless of what you want to compare it to. His strikeout and walk rates were close to what should be expected, his BABIP (.318) was too, and he didn’t have an explosion of power.
It’s time to evaluate your keepers, so what should you predict for Posey next year? I’m thinking he’ll hit 17 homers with a batting average around .295, which is pretty darn good for a catcher. Odds are he’ll be overvalued next year thanks to his explosive July, but he needs to be valued based off his more reasonable August.
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