Preseason Third Base Tiers

When we do this thing where we categorize players into tidy little compartments it tends to bring out the monsters in many of you. Had I given more attention to some of my cultural anthropology or experimental psychology courses, perhaps I’d have an explanation as to why. But nonetheless intrepid reader, I’ll attempt to put forth my best tiered assessment of the available third basemen to you on draft day.

As you no doubt know, the tiers shift. They move like like an Omar Vizquel with Arthur Rhodes on the mound. But I know that many of you like to aim for top three tier material at as many positions as possible, so perhaps this will help you assuming you haven’t already put together your squads. If you already have and your guy is in tier five, well, condolences.

I’m going to put the tiers in with Steamer projections for three reasons: One, we don’t have any statistics to lean on yet. Two, Spring statistics seem futile to bother with. Three, tell me it’s not a lot of fun to say “Steamer.” And lest you want to argue with me about your league-specific dynasty team with a 40 man roster and why do I refuse to give respect to Stephen Piscotty… well, these tiers are for good old fashioned home cooking 5×5 rotisserie leagues. Okay? Okay.

On to the list!

Tier one:

Miguel Cabrera 672 35 105 116 82 3 2 0.32 0.405 0.575

Shocker of all shockers. The reigning AL MVP comes in a class all his own. In fact, it’s kind of unfair to even have tiers when competing with Cabrera. We should have a “Tier Cabrera” and then a “Tier One”. Note to self for 2014.

With Miggy, you have a legitimate #1 overall pick. He’s a beast in four categories, he’s been incredibly durable, and there might not be another player so completely reliable to provide you with elite counting stats like this. It’s entirely rational to take Mike Trout or Ryan Braun with the first overall pick, but consider me among the many that would dance a special type of jig should Miggy slip to me at #3.

Tier two:

Evan Longoria 568 29 80 88 70 4 2 0.277 0.371 0.525
Adrian Beltre 579 27 78 93 33 1 1 0.295 0.338 0.514

I can hear some of you grabbing for your pellet shooters.

I’m being stingy as hell here, I know. But a couple of things are going on here. Rather amazingly, Adrian Beltre has been more healthy than Longoria, Wright, Sandoval, and Zimmerman over the past two seasons, so despite his age and everything we know about aging curves, it’s hard to look at facts and say with a straight face that he should slot behind them. Also rather amazingly, Beltre has just flat out killed the ball the past three seasons. He’s been worth 19 WAR over the last three years where Longoria, Wright, Sandoval, and Zimmerman register at 16.2, 13.7, 10.4, and 14.2, respectively. Yeah, I know, fantasy isn’t necessarily wrapped up in WAR, but I’m just using it to illustrate a point. So I give the nod to Beltre because he continues to perform and then I give the nod to Longoria in large part due to potential.

If the projection holds true, Longoria will hit the second most home runs of any third baseman and drive in the third highest number of runs. If you’re in an OBP league, you should wear him like a snuggie, just drape yourself in the luxurious walks. If he can avoid another ridiculous BABIP like he saw in 2011, there really shouldn’t be any fear of a batting average south of .275.

Tier three:

David Wright 652 21 84 82 77 10 5 0.282 0.369 0.465
Pablo Sandoval 536 20 71 80 45 2 1 0.298 0.358 0.502
Ryan Zimmerman 539 21 70 74 55 3 2 0.282 0.356 0.476
Hanley Ramirez 614 19 78 74 58 16 7 0.269 0.343 0.439
Aramis Ramirez 525 21 65 76 38 3 2 0.275 0.336 0.476
Brett Lawrie 544 16 66 67 39 12 6 0.275 0.332 0.45
Chase Headley 673 18 78 76 77 11 5 0.264 0.352 0.418

Wright pretty clearly belongs in the second tier but he’s already received a cortisone shot this spring, griping about some intercostal muscle which he presumably needs to hit a baseball. If he could reproduce his 2012 line of .306/.391/.492 with 21 home runs and 15 stolen bases, well sign me up. But he’s been awfully volatile over his career relative to the traditional counting stats, and I think the Steamer projection is pretty fair if he can avoid missing any time.

Also dinged up already this spring is the Panda, complaining of an irritated nerve in his arm. If you’ve owned Sandoval over the last two seasons, you know that irritated feeling well because he can’t seem to keep himself off the trainers table, averaging about 112 games from 2011-2012. It’s always nice to take his batting average to the bank, but it’s really hard to rely on much more than 18 home runs or so. He hits high enough in the order to provide RBI opportunity, so if he can stay on the field, that should be a plus category. But he comes with risk.

The whole tier seems like it should be in Jeff Zimmerman‘s MASH report because everyone here but Lawrie has dealt with significant injury issues. Ryan Zimmerman suffered with a shoulder issue, among other ailments, and then went on a tear when the magic of cortisone bled its way into his appendages. He’s gotten that shoulder fixed over the offseason and he’s hit well this Spring, but it seems like you have to prepare for lost time — and the projection reflects as much.

Hanley Ramirez might be an afterthought here since his value is clearly at shortstop, where he ought to slot in a higher tier. In Aramis Ramirez, you have to deal with his notorious slow start, which is going on four straight seasons now. If you take an objective view, he’s been one of the more steadily productive third basemen going on ten years now, save for one stinker in 2009. But he turns 35 in June, I can’t bear to suffer through the power outage in April and May, so I’m probably leaving him to another manager and targeting him in trade come June.

Brett Lawrie is my irrational exuberance pick to outperform his Steamer projections. Freshly off his 23rd birthday, I tend to agree with the ZiPS projection of .185 ISO, pegging him at 19 home runs over 133 games to go with 15 stolen bases. If he can manage 150 games, he ought to be looking at 22-23 HR’s and flirt with 20 steals. Chase Headley rounds out the tier in large part due to his untimely thumb injury which will sideline him one to two months. Even so, it’s interesting to juxtapose the ZiPS projection with Lawrie’s as Headley is projected for 18 home runs and 15 stolen bases with a .268 batting average — pretty much a mirror clone of the Lawrie projection. And that was with 148 games played to 133.

Tier four:

Will Middlebrooks 498 20 60 68 28 7 4 0.271 0.317 0.467
David Freese 501 15 58 61 45 2 1 0.282 0.353 0.444
Pedro Alvarez 578 25 68 77 58 2 1 0.244 0.322 0.447
Mike Moustakas 581 20 67 75 39 3 2 0.261 0.315 0.44
Kyle Seager 626 15 70 69 48 9 5 0.264 0.325 0.409
Todd Frazier 501 19 56 64 38 7 4 0.248 0.312 0.441

If Middlebrooks can manage more plate appearances than 498, he’ll likely leap up into the third tier. His power potential is quite good, and if he hits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, the RBI’s will come. If you’re a Bill James disciple, Middlebrooks is going to be an All-Star. The projection for David Freese isn’t particularly bullish on his runs and RBI, but the batting average and power seems to be about spot-on at 501 plate appearances. The gem of the group might be Todd Frazier who finally cut down a bit on his strikeouts and posted an eye-popping .225 ISO. If he can push 575 plate appearances, there could be 25 home runs in there on the cheap. Watch out for the value-crushing platoon with Alvarez, as has been whispered this Spring. Martin Prado would slot in here somewhere, but why bother — he’s going to have more value at SS and/or 2B assuming he qualifies based on those glorious handful of games he appeared in last season.

Tier five:

Kevin Youkilis 410 15 50 51 47 1 1 0.254 0.354 0.448
Michael Young 564 12 63 62 35 2 1 0.288 0.333 0.421
Jeff Keppinger 534 10 63 53 36 2 1 0.281 0.332 0.401
Manny Machado 496 13 55 55 37 10 5 0.251 0.31 0.41
Lonnie Chisenhall 458 15 50 55 29 3 2 0.257 0.311 0.426
Trevor Plouffe 430 17 47 52 33 2 2 0.239 0.303 0.427
Josh Donaldson 388 13 44 46 31 6 3 0.251 0.315 0.423
Chris Nelson 304 8 33 38 19 2 1 0.28 0.329 0.448
Jordan Pacheco 323 5 33 36 18 3 2 0.287 0.333 0.411
Alberto Callaspo 385 7 41 39 37 3 2 0.265 0.338 0.381
Chris Johnson 342 9 35 41 20 2 1 0.262 0.311 0.421
Jamey Carroll 485 1 50 37 46 7 3 0.275 0.347 0.344
Ian Stewart 328 12 36 40 35 2 1 0.235 0.321 0.426
Juan Francisco 285 11 31 38 15 2 1 0.256 0.298 0.45
Alex Rodriguez 188 7 23 24 19 2 1 0.259 0.342 0.439
Matt Carpenter 317 5 33 33 34 2 1 0.27 0.354 0.407
Eric Chavez 205 7 22 26 19 1 0.266 0.335 0.44
Wilson Betemit 276 9 30 32 26 1 1 0.25 0.322 0.418
Matt Dominguez 333 9 35 36 21 1 1 0.254 0.306 0.405
Placido Polanco 384 3 37 31 25 2 1 0.268 0.32 0.35

I don’t know, you pick. Youkilis could provide streaky production but will no doubt get hurt at some point, along with everyone else on the geriatric Yankee roster. Machado is his polar opposite — a youngster on the rise with not only good power but decent speed, but we’ve just not yet seen more than a handful of games so far, so who the hell knows. You’re not going to get much more than that projection out of Keppinger, but he’s at least got a regular gig. Chisenhall, Plouffe, and Donaldson all have redeeming qualities but enough warts to make them stag on prom night.

Carpenter will be more valuable as a second baseman, ARod might never play again, and then there’s just a plethora of part timers in there and other piles you really ought not step in. Third base is deeper this season than it has been in the past, but don’t get yourself into the fifth tier to pick your starter.

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Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.

22 Responses to “Preseason Third Base Tiers”

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  1. MustBunique says:

    Where would Nolan Arenado fit if he were to win the job in Colorado? I would put him somewhere in the Alvarez-Seager area myself.

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  2. mcbrown says:

    Mark Reynolds probably belongs somewhere in that last tier. He’s not much, but he is a warm body who should get steady PT.

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  3. harpago17 says:

    “Martin Prado would slot in here somewhere, but why bother — he’s going to have more value at SS and/or 2B assuming he qualifies based on those glorious handful of games he appeared in last season.”

    I’d say considering that he DOESN’T qualify at SS or 2b in a large number of leagues, it might be helpful to include him on the list. In ESPN leagues Prado is OF and 3b only, and I would assume that a large portion of readership plays in those leagues.

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  4. chico ruiz says:

    I’d also like to know where you’d slot Prado. As harpago guessed, my league doesn’t go by the positions someone played last year………

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  5. Clark D says:


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  6. Tchaikovsky08 says:

    Enjoyed the clever writing. I’ll take a snuggie of luxurious walks any day.

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  7. dirck says:

    Moustakas seems very likely to hit a lot more than 20 homers this year to me . I am counting on big improvement from Hosmer ,a better full year from C
    ain and Perez and Francouer possibly not being the worst player in baseball to provide Moose with more support and to boost his overall numbers .

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    • Clark D says:

      Keep in mind, Steamer has no 3b in tier 3 over 21 HRs…at least 3 of the 7 probably will hit more than 21. Steamer is stingy.

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      • novaether says:

        Steamer is trying to project the expectation value of a player’s HR hit, and that includes the potential for injury. I imagine that if you were to project a standard deviation for each player’s HRs as well, you’d find that you’re right when you say at least 3 of the 7 will hit more than 21. It’s just that none are more than 50% likely to do so.

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  8. Dan says:

    Juan Francisco will likely be on the good side of the platoon in ATL. With 450 ABs he could easily hit 20 HR.

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  9. Marty says:

    Are those Cleveland “Steamer” projections! Sorry, couldn’t pass up a Cleveland Steamer joke… Great article by the way!

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  10. Rob says:

    Jedd Gyorko is a 3B in Yahoo formats. Where would he rank?

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  11. jfree says:

    With the exception of Miggy, 3B is being overdrafted this year. In a deep league, my guess is that picking up some 5th tier – and playing the streaming game or hot hand or waiting until someone is willing to sell low – is going to be the best strategy.

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    • Ian says:

      I agree. Outside of Cabrera, the position is a complete minefield. The Beltre-Longo-Wright trio has enough upside to make you regret not taking one in the 2nd or 3rd round, but enough clear risk that you would kick yourself if you did grab one and they busted. There are few exciting guys beyond that where the potential reward of being a top 50 guy at the end of the year isn’t weighed down by risks of their own. But the sad thing is, you can’t wait too long to draft one or else the bottom completely falls out of the position.

      Drafting a 3B this year has me scratching my head more than any other position. I feel like I have comfortable backup plans at the other spots if my target is taken. At 3B, I don’t really like anyone at their draft slot outside of Miggy, who I won’t get if I’m not in the top 3 picks.

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  12. chris says:

    Drafted Alverez as my David wright backup before it was known he would miss opening day. How solid is an Alverez platoon? Last I heard he was basically annoited as the clean up hitter.

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  13. Frank says:

    Seriously, Matt Carpenter 318 AB’s?

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  14. Gregory says:

    A choice 2001 Mariners/Indians reference, perhaps more kind to Seattleites than this:

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