Rankings Update: First Base

Aloha, America! Another week means another look at the first base rankings. Just like last week, wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated).”

The Machine
Albert Pujols (.403, .452)

Only a 14.3% HR/FB rate for Albert. Going to have to work for a 40-HR season, according to ZiPS.

Big Ballerz
Miguel Cabrera (.449, .419)
Mark Teixeira (.341, .369)
Ryan Howard (.347, .387)
Prince Fielder (.368, .395)

Teix and Howard switch spots, but this group stays intact.

Not Quite Elite
Joey Votto (.392, .388)
Adrian Gonzalez (.346, .375)
Justin Morneau (.486, .421)
Kevin Youkilis (.430, .405)

If Gonzalez could get his O-Swing% back down to his 2009 rate (22.7% vs. 29.6% in 2010), that would be swell. Youkilis has the lowest K% of his career, and his HR/FB% is down to his career average. However, he has been 4%-6% above his current career average the past two years, so he may see a couple extra HR’s as the year progresses. Morneau has a .486 wOBA! Holy crap.

Pure…Unadulterated…Power
Kendry Morales (.342, .352)
Adam Dunn (.400, .400)
Paul Konerko (.425, .386)

ZiPS says Konerko is on a 34 HR pace, which would be the most since he hit 35 in 2006.

Writers Block
Billy Butler (.375, .368)
Adam LaRoche (.353, .375)
Carlos Pena (.292, .356)
James Loney (.361, .357)

LaRoche has an increased FB rate, and a decreased HR/FB%. Could we see more power later on in the year?

Switch Hitting Brigade
Derrek Lee (.318, .355)
Garrett Jones (.354, .360)
Justin Smoak (.319, .327)
Lance Berkman (.357, .388)
Nick Swisher (.399, .370)

Smoak may not be putting up great wOBA or batting average numbers quite yet, but what are the odds he has a .186 BABIP with a 23.8 LD% for the rest of the year? Also, Derrek Lee falls all the way from 12 to 17. I think I’ve given him a fair shot to put up numbers, but he isn’t producing this year. On a kinder note, Swisher debuts at #22. Before the season began, I would have thought you were crazy to suggest Nick Swisher would be on this list. Now, it’s reality.

The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott (.349, .354)
Todd Helton (.315, .353)
David Ortiz (.326, .366)
Ike Davis (.360, .303)

Making his debut this week is the one, the only, Ike Davis. Also noteworthy is Helton moving from 20 to 23, and he may be done as a fantasy producer in non-OBP leagues.