The RotoGraphs reader mock draft analysis never ends. See what happens when you participate in a draft we help facilitate? You get articles written about you all week! Today I will look at all the American League starting pitchers drafted and compare each with their current average draft position (ADP).
|San Jose Athletics of Oakland||Justin Verlander||R2 P10||22||9||13|
|ballsdeep||Felix Hernandez||R2 P12||24||27||-3|
|PirateInTheBay||CC Sabathia||R3 P2||26||31||-5|
|Hebrew Hammer||Jered Weaver||R4 P4||40||34||6|
|Boo-urns||David Price||R4 P5||41||39||2|
|32||Jon Lester||R5 P4||52||52||0|
|The Drew Henson’s||Dan Haren||R5 P6||54||43||11|
|Lucky Strikes||Matt Moore||R6 P2||62||101||-39|
|Lucky Strikes||Yu Darvish||R7 P11||83||117||-34|
|ballsdeep||James Shields||R8 P12||96||68||28|
|The Fighting Hellfish||C.J. Wilson||R9 P5||101||87||14|
|Boo-urns||Josh Beckett||R9 P8||104||93||11|
|Kadjilliounaire||Michael Pineda||R10 P3||111||97||14|
|Boo-urns||Ricky Romero||R11 P8||128||87||41|
|Boo-urns||Max Scherzer||R12 P5||137||151||-14|
|32||Jeremy Hellickson||R13 P4||148||129||19|
|The Fighting Hellfish||Ervin Santana||R13 P5||149||151||-2|
|The Drew Henson’s||Ubaldo Jimenez||R13 P6||150||155||-5|
|Lucky Strikes||Brandon Morrow||R13 P11||155||181||-26|
|PirateInTheBay||Hiroki Kuroda||R15 P2||170||171||-1|
|Kadjilliounaire||Doug Fister||R16 P3||183||183||0|
|The Fighting Hellfish||Derek Holland||R16 P8||188||169||19|
|Smada||Colby Lewis||R18 P6||210||206||4|
|PirateInTheBay||Justin Masterson||R19 P2||218||200||18|
|PirateInTheBay||Brandon McCarthy||R20 P11||239||205||34|
|The Drew Henson’s||Clay Buchholz||R22 P7||259||208||51|
|ballsdeep||Ivan Nova||R22 P12||264||229||35|
|Boo-urns||Scott Baker||R23 P8||272||214||58|
|The Fighting Hellfish||John Danks||R24 P8||284||193||91|
|Hebrew Hammer||Phil Hughes||R25 P9||297||224||73|
|Prone to Bone||Alexi Ogando||R25 P12||300||211||89|
|Prone to Bone||Gavin Floyd||R26 P1||301||230||71|
|Smada||Rick Porcello||R26 P6||306||254||52|
|ballsdeep||Francisco Liriano||R29 P1||337||233||104|
|PirateInTheBay||Brad Peacock||R29 P2||338||213||125|
|The Fighting Hellfish||Jonathan Sanchez||R29 P5||341||223||118|
|The Drew Henson’s||Brett Anderson||R29 P6||342||231||111|
|Hebrew Hammer||Jake Peavy||R29 P9||345||219||126|
|Smada||Jarrod Parker||R30 P6||354||274||80|
|San Jose Athletics of Oakland||Luke Hochevar||R30 P10||358||237||121|
|PirateInTheBay||Hector Noesi||R30 P11||359||#N/A||#N/A|
|ballsdeep||Jeff Niemann||R30 P12||360||237||123|
The first relative surprise already comes with the consensus top pitcher, as no starter was taken until pick 22. Justin Verlander has an ADP of 9, which I think is ridiculous, so props to the entire league for passing up on him until the end of the second round.
Lucky Strikes made the first two picks that represented big divergences from their ADPs when he selected rookies Matt Moore and Yu Darvish in the sixth and seventh rounds, respectively. I think both were too early, with Moore being wayyyy too early. Darvish at the end of the seventh round isn’t terrible, but still earlier than I would have chosen him. I really do like him though and think that in some leagues with lots of cautious owners, he may even be undervalued. Moore though now has to have a huge year just to break even, which will be difficult given a likely innings cap.
James Shields was a nice pick at the end of the eighth as the first real bargain compared to ADP. I have always been a Shields fan, but I still wouldn’t take him as early as that ADP. As such, I think the differential here overshoots how much profit potential there actually is.
Ricky Romero is overvalued at 87, so good job by the league to let him fall into the 11th round, where he is a solid choice. I love his skill set, but great fortune kept his ERA below 3.00 and has inflated his value.
Brandon Morrow at the end of the 13th, 26 picks ahead of his ADP. No surprise here from a league made up of stat nerds! To be honest, I am a little disappointed he is not going even cheaper considering his surface stats last year. Has he already begun to garner that sleeper/breakout hype once again that will cut into his profit potential? I hope not!
Nice grab by The Fighting Hellfish with Derek Holland in the middle of the 16th round, 19 picks after his ADP. He has solid all-around skills and is backed by an offense that should provide plenty of run support.
After Holland, the ADP becomes rather useless, so I will just name some guys I like picked late:
Francisco Liriano– Yeah, he could be worthless again, but it should be obvious if another crap season is on the way. Just watch the radar gun and check his velocity. If it has returned, continue staying the course, if not, big whoop, you spent your 337th (!!!) pick on him, and we know the ultimate upside.
Okay, so I only really care for one guy this late, the rest are your standard near replacement level options who do little to excite me.
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