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Reader Mock Draft Analysis: Rounds 13-16
Posted By Eno Sarris On February 8, 2012 @ 9:15 am In Mock Draft Analysis | 11 Comments
Let’s keep it up. A big thanks to our readers that showed up for a mock draft. Even if I talk trash on their picks, I appreciate that they stepped forward and took this chance to practice in the public eye. All readers can see the whole mock here, but the participants are winners for their effort. On to rounds 13-16.
|SJ Athletics of Oakland||Shaun Marcum|
|The Fighting Hellfish||Ervin Santana|
|The Drew Henson`s||Ubaldo Jimenez|
|Hebrew Hammer||Kenley Jansen|
|Lucky Strikes||Brandon Morrow|
|Prone to Bone||Sergio Santos|
* Neil Walker. He’s so… Neil Walker. He’s the Neil Walker of Neil Walkers. In other words, not a very sexy pick. Last year, Walker didn’t put up a single statistic that was more than a standard deviation above the mean — and yet, he didn’t put up a single stat that was a standard deviation below the mean either. So the whole package was worth about $11 by Zach Sanders’ tool, and it was okay. The only reason I point him out here is that — though ballsdeep needed a second baseman — no second baseman went for the next ~60 picks. That means two things. 1) He could have waited. 2) He got the last player in a tier. 1) is bad, 2) is good.
* Pitching! Can’t quibble too much with the order the starters went in this round, but seeing Ervin Santana right next to Ubaldo Jimenez made me visit their player pages for a little bit. Santana seems safer and more boring. Jimenez has been better than him for most of his career, and is coming off a one-year blip. I’d lean Ubaldo, and the fact that the Hellfish only had C.J. Wilson (whose swinging strike rate and career history seem to suggest that a strikeout rate regression is on the way) and Yovani Gallardo on his staff makes me think that he could have used a higher-variance higher-upside starter there.
* Relievers! I love me some Kenley Jansen and he has some crazy strikeout ability. Go get him. But! Wait until guys like Sergio Santos and J.J. Putz and Joel Hanrahan are off the board, probably. Those guys will start the season as closers, don’t have heart conditions, and are generally safer bets. What’s not to like about Santos, really?
|Prone to Bone||Tim Hudson|
|Lucky Strikes||Yoenis Cespedes|
|Hebrew Hammer||Stephen Drew|
|The Drew Henson‘s||Lorenzo Cain|
|The Fighting Hellfish||Josh Willingham (DH)|
|SJ Athletics of Oakland||Melky Cabrera|
* There’s another interesting pair of starters. Tim Hudson and Brandon Morrow couldn’t be more different. Old, punchless and FIP-beater versus young, punchful, and FIP-lagger. This is like a reverse of the Santana-Morrow hookup, and honestly, it makes sense to have both of those kinds on your roster. I’d love them to be my final two pitchers, especially since their strengths and weaknesses even out. Don’t hate on Hudson, anyway. Even if his defense will be bad, he’s an extreme ground-ball guy and can be a decent back-end starter.
* Yoenis Cespedes! Yeah, he’s older than most prospects, but will his new team just install him in the Major League outfield? Sorta doubt it.
* I’d surely take the relievers in this round over the outfielders, but they all have their warts. Putz could put up 50 innings of lights-out ball again, or he could go under the knife. Jose Valverde could eat too many Papa Grandes and lose the job to Joaquin Benoit. But Lorenzo Cain could hit .270 with no power and 20 steals, Josh Willingham could get hurt and lose his pull power, and Coco Crisp could lose the afro in a terrible outfield incident that costs him 70 games. Give me Joel Hanrahan and Josh Wilingham, though, and I’ve got two hammers to your none.
|SJ Athletics of Oakland||Ryan Madson|
|The Fighting Hellfish||Yadier Molina|
|The Drew Henson`s||Andrew Bailey|
|Boo-urns||Brandon Belt (1B)|
|Hebrew Hammer||Carlos Marmol|
|Lucky Strikes||Joakim Soria|
|Prone to Bone||Wilson Ramos|
* Maybe we’ve slacking on our reliever pimping? I’ll just say I don’t agree with the order these guys have gone in these three rounds. Hanrahan, Santos and Joakim Soria (and probably even Heath Bell) are ahead of the injury-concern Andrew Bailey and Putz are ahead of the rest. I once coined the idea of ‘thinking stupid,’ so I understand that a guy that has declining peripherals like Valverde might be more secure in his job than he should be, but, still, I’d just wait and take Soria almost two rounds later.
|Prone to Bone||Jeff Francoeur|
|Lucky Strikes||Yonder Alonso|
|Hebrew Hammer||Rafael Betancourt|
|The Drew Henson‘s||Joe Nathan|
|The Fighting Hellfish||Derek Holland|
|SJ Athletics of Oakland||Jesus Guzman|
* Kadjilliounaire — who organized much of this and deserves some propers for his work — zigs when everyone else is zagging here. We all talk about how bad the defense will be behind Doug Fister, and how his walk rate is due for a little regression, and how his ground-ball rate wasn’t even that good, and he says, eh, whatever, he’s mine. I admire the sentiment — there are players (like Jeff Francoeur) that will drop a little foo far in saber-aware leagues, and they become values because everyone hates on them — but I’m not sure that this was quite the moment. Derek Holland pitches in a way worse park, but he has the strikeout punch and the velocity to make him a sleeper, and I woulda ended up with him on my squad in this round.
* Too early for Jesus Guzman, imo. He’s probably going to be a fourth outfielder or in a platoon with Will Venable in left field. Unless this is a bet against the switch-hitting Yonder Alonso, who’s ready for every day play. Guzman is okay, but he’s got a bad glove and no power and I’m sure the Pads are aware of these flaws. I’d take the brittle duo of David Freese and Justin Morneau over him.
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