Reader Mock Draft Analysis: Rounds 9-12

Today we continue chugging along in our look at the highly skilled RotoGraphs Readers’ Mock Draft. I tackle rounds 9 through 12, which are some of my favorites as these are the rounds I typically draft my first pitcher, woohoo!

Round 9

ballsdeep Dan Hudson
PirateInTheBay Mark Reynolds (1B)
San Jose Athletics of Oakland Miguel Montero
32 Michael Cuddyer (1B)
The Fighting Hellfish C.J. Wilson
The Drew Henson`s J.J. Hardy
Smada Jason Kipnis
Boo-urns Josh Beckett
Hebrew Hammer Adam Wainwright
Kadjilliounaire Paul Goldschmidt
Lucky Strikes Ike Davis
Prone to Bone Billy Butler

Best Pick: My answer here surprised me a bit, but no pick really stood out to me as a great value. However, I have always been a fan of Josh Beckett and like him better than a bunch of starters that were drafted earlier. His ERA last year was certainly aided by luck, but he was overdue after several seasons of poor fortune inflating it. An ERA jump back into the low-to-mid 3.00 range should still allow him to remain a top 15 pitcher.

Riskiest Pick: Jason Kipnis‘ ADP currently sits at 161, yet in this draft he went 103rd overall. This is what happens when a player becomes so overhyped as a sleeper, his draft cost skyrockets and any profit potential is wiped out. Now he needs to pretty much have that breakout season just to break even for his owner. Can he post a stat line right around where his current projections sit at? Sure he can, but that seems to be his ultimate upside for this season. Paying for a young hitter’s best case scenario usually leads to a loss (in terms of cost versus final season value).

Round 10

Prone to Bone Chris Young
Lucky Strikes Brett Gardner
Kadjilliounaire Michael Pineda
Hebrew Hammer Jesus Montero
Boo-urns Matt Garza
Smada Cameron Maybin
The Drew Henson`s Ryan Howard
The Fighting Hellfish Ichiro Suzuki
32 Derek Jeter
San Jose Athletics of Oakland Brandon Beachy
PirateInTheBay Mariano Rivera
ballsdeep Drew Storen

Best Pick: Brett Gardner‘s ADP is 93 and according to Last Player Picked, he was around the 87th most valuable fantasy player last year. He went 110th here, which is a pretty good value assuming you expect Gardner to post similar stats as he did last year. I did his projection a couple of days ago and figured more of the same is on the way, with a slight bump in batting average. Steals only guys sometimes tend to be undervalued and this is a prime example.

Riskiest Pick: I am struggling to come up with a risky pick in this round, as all seem to be rather decent. Ryan Howard is a consideration depending on when he returns, but when you add in the replacement you would use, he isn’t such a bad choice at this point. I’ll go out on a limb here and say Ichiro Suzuki. I think he is the best candidate for a collapse this year. He’ll be 38 and there are already several signs that his speed is waning. Without his speed, his batting average is less likely to rebound, and his steals take a hit. Potentially devoid of the two main drivers of his fantasy value, the threat that he loses his leadoff spot and the another weak offense in Seattle expected, the downside here is substantial.

Round 11

ballsdeep Jordan Zimmermann
PirateInTheBay Dustin Ackley
San Jose Athletics of Oakland Emilio Bonifacio (3B,LF)
32 David Ortiz
The Fighting Hellfish John Axford
The Drew Henson`s Danny Espinosa
Smada Carlos Beltran
Boo-urns Ricky Romero
Hebrew Hammer Dee Gordon
Kadjilliounaire Erick Aybar
Lucky Strikes Anibal Sanchez
Prone to Bone Nick Markakis

Best Pick: Dee Gordon is the next Juan Pierre, but at shortstop. Sure, he’s on a lousy offense, but he should contribute in average, while stealing 50-60 bases. That is worth much more than an 11th round pick. He does have his share of red flags though, most notably his meager walk rate. But the Dodgers really have no other decent alternatives to hit lead off, so as long as he’s hitting at least .280 or so, he should be okay.

Riskiest Pick: Emilio Bonifacio was taken quite early at pick 123, versus his ADP of 169. I actually think he is an excellent bust candidate no matter the cost. He rode an unsustainable .372 BABIP to his .296 batting average, so once that regresses, his steals are going to decline as well. With little power to fall back on, he’s going to have to rely on posting another inflated BABIP to even keep a full-time job.

Round 12

Prone to Bone Jonathan Papelbon
Lucky Strikes Cory Luebke
Kadjilliounaire Freddie Freeman
Hebrew Hammer Andre Ethier
Boo-urns Max Scherzer
Smada Logan Morrison
The Drew Henson`s Chris Carpenter
The Fighting Hellfish Jemile Weeks
32 J.P. Arencibia
San Jose Athletics of Oakland Mark Trumbo
PirateInTheBay Brian Wilson
ballsdeep Alexei Ramirez

Best Pick: Only two seasons ago, Andre Ethier hit 31 home runs and recorded 106 RBI. He is now coming off a season in which his knee clearly bothered him, but he had surgery in September that should have fixed the problem. This is how you win at fantasy baseball. You draft players coming off disappointing seasons at their low and then laugh all the way to the bank as you enjoy the profits. Ethier will still be just 30 years old this season, so the strong rebound potential at a discounted price is a no-brainer.

Riskiest Pick: Was San Jose Athletics on autopick when he selected Mark Trumbo? As has been mentioned many times over the off-season after the Angels signed Albert Pujols to a kajillion dollar contract, there is quite the logjam at first base/DH/outfield. Even if we ignore Kendrys Morales for a moment, Trumbo still doesn’t figure to be a full-time player unless he suddenly morphed into a capable fielder and takes over the third base job from Alberto Callaspo.




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Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

16 Responses to “Reader Mock Draft Analysis: Rounds 9-12”

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  1. Ben says:

    I think you switched my pick with someone elses in the 12th, as I (Hellfish) drafted Jemile Weeks.

    And I also wasn’t in love with my Ichiro pick.

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  2. Ben says:

    Also, I picked Ichiro. Not boo-urns.

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  3. Junker23 says:

    Should Logan Morrison be going higher? Always thought he was supposed to be a high-average, low power guy, but last year kinda flipped that.

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  4. Kadjilliounaire says:

    You forgot to invert the order for rounds 10 and 12.

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  5. Grrr, I’ll blame Excel on the inversion screwup. I did try to reverse the order and thought I did, but guess it didn’t work. Is it fixed now after my edits?

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  6. GVeers says:

    Sort of surprising that Wainwright went 3 rounds later than Strasburg? I would say the beta for Strasburg is higher, and the expected value at least as good or greater for Wainwright. Much better relative value with Wainwright IMO.

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    • Can’t downplay returning from TJS. Pitchers typically struggle with their control initially and sometimes their velocity is down a bit as they continue to build arm strength. It may be some time before we see vintage Wainwright.

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      • GVeers says:

        But Strasburg had TJS too. Granted it was a year earlier, but he doesn’t have the track record of health that Wainwright had before the surgery. I basically see them as the same guy in terms of risk vs. reward, but Wainwright came at a 3 round discount.

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      • The difference is that Strasburg returned last year and pitched 44.1 innings, while Wainwright hasn’t thrown an inning since 2010. Theoretically, Strasburg should now be fully over his rust and be good to go from the start, while Wainwright still has to deal with that potential rust/control problems/loss of velocity.

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  7. Pugsly says:

    But Strasburg will be on an innings limit. To me, they are a wash, given all these considerations.

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  8. Cory says:

    You gotta think that Garza in the tenth round is the best value there. He had a great second half, and while the offense won’t get him many wins, the infield defense behind him will help him out.

    200 k’s, 12 wins, and a decent ERA and WHIP–I’ll take that all day.

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  9. Ender says:

    Dee Gordon is extremely risky. His glove is not major league ready, his contact rate wasn’t elite and he can’t take a BB. He is old Juan Pierre without the AVG but at SS and there is no guarantee that he doesn’t end up in the minors at some point. It is a risk/reward pick but hard to complain about someone not wanting to take the risk.

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  10. ewv says:

    Despite the pros & cons spelled out above, I see Wainwright as the best pick of the 9th.

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