Reviewing 2014 Pod’s Picks: Outfield

We have almost reached the finish line of our position by position player recaps! Today we move on to the outfield, which means it’s time to check in on how I did with my preseason Pod’s Picks. Because there are so many of them, the list was a much better representation of the players I was particularly bullish and bearish on based on my projections.

Bullish

Jayson Werth

My Preseason Rank: 17 | Preseason Consensus: 40 | Actual Rank: 17

It’s not often that one nails the final ranking exactly, especially when dealing with a position like outfield that includes many more players than the other positions. Werth saw his power dip and his batting average fall 26 points and yet he was still good enough to crack the top 20 at the position. Werth’s batted ball distance did drop five feet from last year, but that’s hardly enough to explain why his HR/FB rate was nearly halved. Last year was probably a bit of a fluke, and this year likely as well. With an above average distance, he should have posted a HR/FB rate in the double digits. Since his doubles rate surged, it was probably just the randomness of the doubles/homers split. At age 35, it’s tempting to project continued decline. And his willingness to steal bases could disappear, but he has been such a good base stealer, he may continue. Nothing in his skill set suggests a collapse is imminent. I would expect similar again in 2015.

Closer Ranking: Me

Christian Yelich

My Preseason Rank: 43 | Preseason Consensus: 65 | Actual Rank: 23

I expressed surprise that I ended up being bullish on Yelich as I would have guessed if anything he would be another one of those overhyped former top prospects. I figured that a history of strong BABIP marks in the minors would translate well to the Majors, and that’s exactly what happened. While he disappointed on the power front, he delivered everywhere else as expected. He never pops up and hits a ton of grounders, both of which should help him sustain a high BABIP. Unfortunately, even with an above average HR/FB rate and batted ball distance that surprisingly ranked 67th at 289 feet, a sub-20% fly ball rate resulted in him failing to reach double digits in home runs. You have to assume he’ll begin hitting more fly balls at some point, which would get his home run total into the mid-teen range.

Closer Ranking: Me

Brandon Moss

My Preseason Rank: 32 | Preseason Consensus: 52 | Actual Rank: 38

Moss performed like one of the best values of the year in the first half before collapsing in the second half. He appeared in my first base Pod’s Picks as well and should be better next year if his hip was to blame for his struggles.

Closer Ranking: Me

Junior Lake

My Preseason Rank: 60 | Preseason Consensus: 80 | Actual Rank: 118

Through the end of May, he was performing quite well from a fantasy perspective, on pace for an 18/18 season, but it all went downhill from there. He batted .190 in June and then .114 in July and didn’t bother to offset the lack of base hits with any semblance of plate patience. Over those two months, he walked once. Since the Cubs had like nine outfielders rotating, predictably Lake began to lose more and more playing time before eventually getting demoted to Triple-A. Given his questionable high strikeout, low walk and mediocre power skill set, his future with the Cubs is now up in the air.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Bearish

Dexter Fowler

My Preseason Rank: 74 | Preseason Consensus: 44 | Actual Rank: 53

Aside from batting average, Fowler underperformed in every category of my projection, yet still managed to rank 21 spot better than I valued him. It just goes to show you how difficult it is to accurately value players, because their own projection isn’t the only thing that matters, but the projections of everyone else at the position as well. Predictably, Fowler saw his HR/FB rate decline after leaving Coors Field, but he managed to post an identical wOBA thanks to a rebound in BABIP, fueled by just one pop-up all season. It now appears that 2013 was a fluke in terms of swiping bases and now finally his triples total actually reflects his only slightly above average speed.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Nick Swisher

My Preseason Rank: 58 | Preseason Consensus: 38 | Actual Rank: 130

Swisher appeared on the first base rankings and “earned” -$11.32. Yes, negative value. I expressed confusion that I was so much more bearish than the rest considering my projection was very similar to his 2013 performance and in line with the various projection systems. Anyhow, we were obviously all wrong here, as Swisher finished up easily his worst offensive performance of his career. His power disappeared, his SwStk% jumped and his strikeout rate skyrocketed. Perhaps his knees bothered him all season long. But he’ll be 34 next year, has no speed and rarely contributed in batting average, so he’s not much of a buy low guy.

Closer Ranking: Me

Nelson Cruz

My Preseason Rank: 59 | Preseason Consensus: 42 | Actual Rank: 6

Haha, of course I had to list a player that I, and technically all of us, was so wrong about. Cruz posted career highs in home runs, runs scored and runs batted in. But perhaps the most important statistic is 678. That’s how many plate appearances he recorded this year, which was also easily a career high. Only once previously did he come to the plate more than 515 times. There was absolutely nothing fluky about his performance, we just didn’t expect the 34 year old to enjoy his healthiest season yet.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Bonus:

Giancarlo Stanton

My Preseason Rank: 21 | Preseason Consensus: 7 | Actual Rank: 3

Way to finish out the list with two players I was so completely wrong about! I foolishly included him as a “bonus” choice, oops. First of all, the Marlins lineup was much better than expected, scoring 645 runs, good for 16th in baseball. This was a significant improvement compared to 2013 when the team scored just 513 runs, a whopping 85 runs fewer than the next to last place team. Next, he BABIPd his way to a .288 batting average, posting a career high mark despite a batted ball distribution similar to what he’s always done. His HR/FB rate rebounded off of last season’s low, which was to be expected, but it finished at the second highest mark of his career. Last, he more than doubled his previous career high stolen base output, swiping double digit bases and only getting caught once. He stole just one base in 2013, so this was quite the surprise. I wouldn’t count on the steals again or an average near .290, but everything else is obviously repeatable.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Final Tally:
Me: 4
Consensus: 4





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Patrick
9 years ago

The Moss pick was great. I don’t understand why everyone else ranked him so low. He had always hit for power and last year he proved he could do it for a full season. He basically had a floor season and still was among the top 40 OF.

I can’t blame you for being down on Stanton coming into the year, but putting him outside the top 20 OF seems more of a floor ranking. Assuming he played 150+ games, he would very likely be a top 10 OF despite his poor teammates. If he and/or his teammates improved he could push top 5 or higher. Obviously, you have to dock him value due to the fact that he has been injured and could be a BA risk.

Stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Patrick

I’m with you in not being able to understand why people were so down on Moss. I got him before my league started for the low low price of Axford.

Patrick
9 years ago

He didn’t have a season out of line of what the underlying numbers said. Maybe people were worried about him becoming a platoon player? Or his short track record?

dunx
9 years ago
Reply to  Patrick

Yeah, there’s every reason to think Moss is going to be even better next year too, since the hip issue ruined his second half. And then the day after he got a cortisone shot, he hit two HRs in the wildcar game. If he’s healthy, i’m sure as hell targeting him.