Roberto Hernandez & Marcell Ozuna: Deep Waiver Wire

Today we take another stroll into the dangerous and deep waters of the free agent pool of mystery. During our treasure search, we find a pitcher with a new name and pitch mix and an outfielder that was just called up.

Roberto Hernandez | TAM SP | 8% Owned

The artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona is back with a new name and pitch mix. On the main FanGraphs blog, we have already discussed Hernandez twice. Never a strikeout pitcher in the past — his career high K/9 is just 5.7 — he is suddenly punching batters out at an 8.8 rate. His SwStk% is also at a career best at 9.2%, after not exceeding 7.9% since 2007. The majority of the credit should go to his change-up, which has generated a SwStk% of 17.5% and has been thrown much more frequently than in the past.

He remains a strong ground ball pitcher and has continued to show pretty good control over the past several seasons. What does that mean? We have the skills trifecta hiding beneath a 5.28 ERA! A ridiculous 24% HR/FB ratio which has killed his ability to strand runners is to blame for the inflated ERA. But his SIERA is just 3.41 and his skill improvement is easily explainable. With a surprising ownership of just 8% in CBS leagues, he should be available for either free or peanuts in AL-Only and deep mixed leagues. Make the move now!

Marcell Ozuna | MIA OF | 4% Owned

Ozuna was called up yesterday to make his Major League debut for the fish to replace the injured Giancarlo Stanton. Once again, the team isn’t being shy about promoting prospects who don’t seem to actually be ready for the big show. So here are the negatives: he has no Triple-A experience and just 47 plate appearances at Double-A, plays for a horrific offense and calls a pitcher’s park home. That is enough for me to not get too excited about his short-term prospects and keep this recommendation to NL-Only leagues.

So now let’s talk about the positives. He does have power, posting .200+ ISO marks at both Single-A and High-A in 2011 and 2012. During his short stint at Double-A this season, his power surged higher, as he hit five long balls, three doubles and a triple, good for a .476 ISO. He also has some speed and may be able to steal 10 bases or so in a full season of at-bats. His contact rate has been acceptable, though his plate patience could use a bit of work. The biggest opportunity here is that he’s going to play. The team didn’t call him up to bench him every couple of games and it’s not like they have any good alternatives. With literally no power outside of Justin Ruggiano (it boggles my mind that he continues to hit fifth when he’s the team’s only power threat and probably best offensive force with Stanton injured), they need to give Ozuna a chance to contribute some run production to their meager offense.




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Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

15 Responses to “Roberto Hernandez & Marcell Ozuna: Deep Waiver Wire”

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  1. Darren says:

    Any evidence that Jose Molina’s superior framing skills are helping Hernandez this season.

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    • tylersnotes says:

      does catcher framing have any impact at all on swstr%? I honestly don’t know but I just assume there can’t be any correlation there at all, and I’d give more weight to the swstr% than catcher framing even though it is molina behind the plate, especially since his bb/9 is in line with his career avg while his k/9 is so inflated. I think this might be overvaluing molina’s ability, when the real answer here is that the home runs and k/9 are both likely SSS and he’s pretty similar to the pitcher he was in the past.

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      • Skin Blues says:

        I can see a connection. SwStr% tends to be higher on putaway pitches (in this case, the change), and putaway pitches tend to be thrown in pitcher’s counts. And a good pitch framer gets you into more pitcher’s counts. On a 2-1 count, a batter is less likely to chase a low change up than he would be on a 1-2 count.

        Also, maybe Fernando Rodney gave him lessons on how to throw it.

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  2. Nickle says:

    I was wondering if you could give more perspective with these guys sometimes. Former Fausto, for instance: how does he compare with other waiver wire mentions like Lucas Harrell, Miguel Gonzalez, John Lackey, JA Happ, etc.

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    • tylersnotes says:

      for reference, i made a decision to stream Jason Marquis over Roberto Hernandez in a h2h league with weekly lineups (both were 2 start starters and this league is deep enough that i was making a decision of marquis or hernandez).

      I chose Marquis, and he outperformed Hernandez slightly for the week.

      If you’re asking about Hernandez vs Harrell or Happ, I’d say set your bar lower.

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      • tylersnotes says:

        having just spent 30 minutes looking at hernandez’s pitchf/x and projections, i’m changing my mind to say that Hernandez ROS vs Harrell is probably a wash, and if regression will likely be more kind to hernandez than it will to happ unless there’s a change to happ’s approach.

        but jason marquis does pitch in petco! that was a coin flip, and hernandez ROS will almost certainly be better than marquis. But I’ll also bet good american dollars that marquis will show up in a deep league waiver wire column, cuz of the petco edge

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  3. wynams says:

    Would rather have Archer on my team than Hernandez, and thinking Maddon won’t put up with a five fitty for much longer.

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    • SB says:

      If you don’t think the Rays know what Mike just wrote about Hernandez, you’re mistaken. I bet they’re excited about him and know that ERA is going to come down as long as the luck dragons comply. That’s no guarantee, but combined with their conservative approach to prospects and you could have Archer stashed for a LONG time. Hernandez is pitching well now. He’s the better option.

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    • johnnycuff says:

      if you think the rays give that much regard to ERA, you’re not paying attention

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  4. raw__fee says:

    I dropped Ruggiano for Matt Joyce this morning…

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  5. Rufus T. Firefly says:

    How does Hernandez compare to Colon? Who do you pick up for ROS vs. just streaming?

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  6. tylersnotes says:

    ozuna was slugging .810 in AA before he was called up, which is higher than Stanton’s OPS before he went to the DL this year. That is a completely meaningless statistic, but the kind of meaningless statistic that is lots of fun.

    it’s funny how many times i’ve seen the question “could miami beat an average AAA team”, and the general answer has been “yes of course.” then they call up a prospect with only 47 AA PA who stands to be one of 2 power hitting everyday players on their team and I wonder if people truly understand what the miami marlins have become.

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  7. Axis of Honor 25 says:

    I just noticed that Hernandez’s change-up numbers are probably what is boosting his stats. In his best start of the year the change-up was a pitch he threw 40% of the time. Not only but he his also attacking righties with it which was something he neglected to last year. He’s all over the strikezone this year on his heat maps and I think the change-up is probably why his SwgStrk% is higher

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