Roto Riteup: April 19, 2013

Let’s all agree to just put this week behind us. Tomorrow is the weekend and that should bring better days.

On today’s agenda:
1. Patrick Corbin‘s strong outing
2. Brandon Crawford‘s hitting
3. Rajai Davis keeps running
4. The return of two injured sluggers

Patrick Corbin‘s strong outing
A start in Yankee Stadium is a daunting task, but Patrick Corbin posted seven strong innings of one run ball and recorded seven strikeouts as well. Injuries aside, the Yankees are still a very potent offense — with a top five team wRC+ and wOBA thus far. To see Corbin post a final line against a very good lineup is encouraging. However once we dive a bit deeper into his numbers we begin to unravel the appeal of Corbin.

Through three starts Corbin’s .226 BABIP and 91.8% strand rate are both numbers that are totally unsustainable. His beautiful 1.42 ERA is masking his 3.66 FIP and 4.15 xFIP. Eventually (read: sooner rather than later) his ERA will catch up to his FIP and xFIP and then Corbin will once again be a stream candidate rather than a roster spot holder. CBS leagues have already bought into Corbin to the tune of a 50% ownership rate, however in both ESPN and Yahoo! formats his 10% ownership rate highlights those owners being slow to move on Corbin or being skeptical of his numbers. It is most likely the former, so assuming Corbin is available, grab him and try to spin him in a trade before his next start. If you can’t move him, put him on the bench. Either he pitches well and his stock continues to rise — despite you knowing he is headed for a free fall — or he gets lit up on your bench and you can return him to the waiver wire.

Brandon Crawford‘s hitting
The brilliant Chad Young has recently highlighted Brandon Crawford‘s potential, but in the wake of Crawford’s 3-for-4 night with a home run yesterday, expect him to be snapped up quickly. Crawford now has three home runs on the year to go along with four doubles. If you happen to play in a league with Total Bases (which the author adores as a fantasy stat), Crawford is shortstop manna from the BABIP gods. His ownership rate is still sub-20% in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues, however his CBS rate hovers near the 50% mark. If he is still available, grab him as another Jose Reyes replacement option or just ride Crawford while he is hot.

Rajai Davis keeps running
Yesterday Rajai Davis did just what Rajai Davis does. He recorded two hits and two stolen bases. To see Davis up and running — especially in the leadoff spot — is always a welcome sight for those of us who tend to rely on the waiver wire to find steals. Davis is now 4:0 is SB/CS on the year and while his power nor his average will ever bring you the championship, Davis’ legs can help you get there. Since the 2007 season — and despite never recording 600 PA’s once or more than 500 PA’s twice — Davis ranks fourth in stolen bases behind Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, and Jose Reyes. Davis’ current role should provide plenty of chances for him to get on base and thus plenty of chances to run. Davis is owned in less than 20% of all three major fantasy websites.

The return of two injured sluggers
Today David Ortiz will make his season debut after battling with an Achilles injury. From this point forward he is an automatic start in daily and weekly leagues. Staying in the East but changing leagues, Freddie Freeman could return to action as soon as Monday. He is on a rehab assignment today and may join the Atlanta Braves on Monday. Freeman is yet another hitter that should be an auto-start. Despite his hitting talents, Freddie is still just my third favorite Freeman. Runner up in the Freeman debate is Morgan Freeman for his voice. Conversely, the author’s favorite Freeman is a man of no words.




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35 Responses to “Roto Riteup: April 19, 2013”

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  1. Mike says:

    David,

    How is Freeman’s return going to impact Chris Johnson’s playing time? Is he going back to platooning at third?

    Thanks,

    Mike

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    • David Wiers says:

      I don’t know if it will hurt much. Johnson has a reverse split through 1250-ish PA’s and those have been spread out since 2009. If he can hit opposite handed pitching as well as he has righties, he’ll be just fine.

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  2. Jim B says:

    Thank you for the in depth coverage but I really don’t need to know about Brandon Crawford’s bowel movements.

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  3. ML says:

    Free fall is a bit strong if your going to cite a 3.66 fip.

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    • David Wiers says:

      His xFIP is the key component to worry about. Besides his listed BABIP and LOB%m Corbin isn’t going to get away with a 6.3 HR/FB% all season either.

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      • ML says:

        Sure – but its been 3 starts, of course they can lok screwy. I like the early increase in FBv, getting gb’s, and there may be some upside to his k%. The key will be controlling the walks. In the NL west, I don’t think this a terrible back of the rotation option (in a competitive league).

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  4. KMen says:

    Rajai Davis was only starting because of Bautista’s injury. As soon as Bautista comes back, which should (hopefully) be any day now, Rajai is back to being on the short side of a platoon with Adam Lind. So unless you have enough room on your bench for someone who only plays once or twice a week, he won’t be able to help much.

    The one who is starting every day, though, is Bonifacio. Except he seems to have forgotten how to get on base over the winter.

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  5. Bcraw's Doctor. says:

    2. Brandon Crawford‘shitting

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  6. Metsox says:

    I am deeply worried that the Jays are going to let us all know that Bautista is on the 30 day DL very shortly. Which would make Davis considerably more interesting…..

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  7. Ruki Motomiya says:

    If Crawford’s shit was what was empowering his hitting, I’d understand why people were keeping away.

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  8. Maturin says:

    The Yankees are hardly a potent offense against left handed pitching. Team OPS vs. LHP is .523, lowest in the AL and 28th for MLB overall. Corbin is a southpaw.

    I like and own Corbin, but it was likely he would have a good start against the Yankees.

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    • Cliff says:

      They’ve had a grand total of 142 ABs against left handed pitching this year. And if you look at some of their individual OPS numbers over the last 3 years against lefties….

      Youilis: 1.034 OPS
      Cano: .786 OPS
      Cervelli: .826 OPS
      Wells: .745 OPS
      Nunez .768 OPS

      As a team, over the last few years they’ve been ok i guess against left-handers as well

      2012: 1st in runs scored, 5th in OPS
      2011: 1st in runs scored, 1st in OPS
      2010: 2nd in runs scored, 3rd in OPS

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    • David Wiers says:

      Great point. But they’ve also faced some very solid left-handed starters. They put up three runs in 6.2 innings against Miley the other day, lost to Lester on opening day, and put up three runs on Chen in six innings.

      The fact that their best hitters right now are mostly lefties, e.g. Cano, Gardner, and Hafner, opposing teams can punish this by sending out LOOGY’s to face the upper third of the Yankees lineup. Of course that will drag down the Yanks’ overall numbers against lefties.

      So, you’re right on a certain level, but I also have to disagree a bit too.

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  9. Rico says:

    Are you suggesting that someone sample Brandon Crawford’s stool for PED’s?

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  10. Truckstop says:

    Django should be the top of your Freeman list.

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  11. Bubba says:

    Crawford or Jed Lowrie? 5×5 with OBP.

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  12. Mike says:

    Sell High on Crawford? What’s a reasonable return in a 20 team, 13 starting position player league?

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    • David Wiers says:

      Holy deep league action, batman! I would love to be in a league that deep!

      Anyways, it probably isn’t a lot. You’d be better off riding him while he’s hot or if/when he drops, see what level he stabilizes at and then decide. In a league as deep as yours, finding players worth owning on the waiver wire is probably pretty hard. You can leverage that fact by trading him now or hang on to him and hope when he comes back down to earth, he doesn’t evaporate on the way in.

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  13. asaw780 says:

    mfw “Brandon Crawford shitting”

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  14. matlock says:

    18 team keeper…which side:
    Bruce, gattis, ross for marte, plouffe, dan murphy, henderson

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    • David Wiers says:

      I’ll assume Cody Ross, as I don’t really think Tyson Ross would be involved in a fantasy trade. I’ll also assume Jim Henderson.

      I’ll take Bruce, Gattis, and Ross. Bruce is the best player in the deal and Ross isn’t all bad either. Gattis might not get a ton of PA’s going forward, but he has shown an ability to hit thus far. We’ll see how Fredi handles things with the Braves lineup.

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      • matlock says:

        You assume correctly on henderson and ross. Thats my hang up for the deal; i know that bruce is far and away the best talent here, but where does gattis go upon mcanns arrival? Further, that zona outfield gets crowded with eaton and kubel when healthy. Does ross maintain a healthy plate of ABs throughout the year?

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      • David Wiers says:

        All good points. In a league as deep as yours, finding and hanging on to premium talent is vital. There just aren’t waiver wire guys available. You have to cultivate your own talent and hang on to it. I’m shocked that Bruce is even available.

        Eaton is set to be re-evaluated on Wednesday, but he thinks that he’ll be back the second week of May. (Source: http://arizonasports.com/42/1627752/Dbacks-Adam-Eaton-on-injury-Its-coming-along-great)

        Given that Eaton is mostly a CF, I expect the outfield to be Eaton in CF, Parra in LF, and Ross nailing down RF. Once Kubel is back, I think he and Parra battle it out for LF. Pollack isn’t going to get in the way of serious playing time of Ross or Eaton. Also of note, Ross *can* play CF, although it probably won’t be pretty. The D-backs will find time/room for Ross.

        Hope that helps!

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      • matlock says:

        Thx again!

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