Roto Riteup: July 25, 2013

Today’s Roto Riteup was written while the author was debating the pros and cons of consuming an adult beverage directly thereafter.

On today’s agenda:
1. Taylor Guerrieri, meet Tommy John
2. Expect trades for Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios
3. James Paxton reins it in
4. A couple of arbitrary endpoints

Taylor Guerrieri, meet Tommy John
A first-round pick of the Rays in 2011, Guerrieri dominated in each of the past two seasons, but now he’ll be shut down for a full year to recover from TJ surgery. Guerreri was still a ways away from the majors thanks to the Rays’ careful handling of prospects, so now he likely won’t be able to see big league action until 2016, at the very earliest. He’s still a top prospect, so if you can stash him away in ottoneu leagues for a dollar, that’s a pretty solid deal.

Expect trades for Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios
While neither of the above mentioned gentlemen have been traded as of writing, odds are both will be donning new uniforms before August rolls around.

Soriano has been rumored to go to the Yankees, but I’m not so confident that the Yanks want to give anything up when the rest of their lineup would still be subpar. Other than the Yankees, it’s hard to figure out what contenders would be interested in the veteran outfielder, even with the Cubs agreeing to pay a virtually all of the money remaining on his contract.

Rios, on the other hand, should be coveted. The Pirates have been looking at the right-hander very seriously, and I think they end up pulling the trigger. Rios’ power numbers would drop rather drastically in Pittsburgh, but he’d still offer fantasy owners a good batting average and steals. Outside of Pittsburgh, it sounds like the Rangers may be in pursuit of Rios, and a move there would actually improve his overall fantasy value.

James Paxton reins it in
As recently as a May, many of us thought Paxton’s potential career as a starter was all but done due to a lack of control and command, but the imposing left-hander has really turned things around as of late. Witness: over his last seven starts, Paxton has walked less than 6% of the batters he’s faced, which comes out to just over 2.0 per nine innings of work. In that timeframe, he’s continued his high strikeout rate, and his ERA is at 2.65. While the Mariners do not have an immediate opening in their rotation, Paxton is showing that he deserves a shot to start in the bigs, and the Ms are eventually going to have to give him a chance to do so.

A couple of arbitrary endpoints

Jason Heyward, since the start of June: 39 G, 172 PA, 5 HR, 16 BB, 29 K; .279/.351/.448 (.317 BABIP)
Jayson Werth, since coming off the DL: 42 G, 172 PA, 10 HR, 20 BB, 37 K; .322/.401/.570 (.365 BABIP)

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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

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Any thoughts on Scott Kazmir, I cant believe he has hung onto his rotation spot all year, but he actually has been really good over the last month or so, is he someone you see keeping this up or do we see a major meltdown coming soon? His next two starts are scheduled to be against the White Sox and Marlins I believe.

Turbo Sloth
Turbo Sloth

I’ll say that no, he’s not in line for a meltdown. Even when his ERA was in the Mid-5s, his SIERA was under 4, and his bad surface stats have simply regressed to be more in-line with his good peripherals. His velocity has been good but rather inconsistent all season, though, but it seems that it is starting to stabilize. But that’s the one thing I’d keep an eye on since a velocity drop could be a sign of injury or other issues.