Roto Riteup: July 29, 2012
So the A’s are only 3.5 games behind the Rangers as of this morning. I don’t really know what else to say here. You know, other than the fact that my mind is blown. Here is some less mind blowing baseball news for today’s Roto Riteup.
• Yesterday’s game was Jemile Weeks‘ first three hit game since last September. He even stole the his 14 bag of the year. He has a double digit walk rate but his .252 BABIP is still in the toilet. His 88.6% contact rate is well above the 79.9% average and his 4.3 SwStr% is half of the 8.9% average. His GB% is up from last year, but one would imagine that his type of speed, more grounders would be a good thing. To my highly unprofessional eye, despite making contact at an excellent rate, it is generally weak contact. Soft grounders turn into ground ball outs and although it is a combination of things, he has already grounded into more double plays this year than last year, in fewer plate appearances too. Given his pedigree and minor league history, he seems like too good of a hitter to make this weak of contact for much longer. I don’t know if I would add him in shallow leagues just yet, but I would keep a close eye on him. He is owned in 32% of Yahoo! and not even 30% of ESPN leagues. For what its worth, I’d take the over on his rest-of-season ZiPS line.
• Even after an 0-3 performance yesterday, Justin Morneau has found his stride as of late. Excluding yesterday, over the past 30 days we have seen him hit more like the Morneau of old. During that 30 day span he has a .325 batting average, a pair of homers, 10 RBI’s and 11 runs scored. He is freely available to pick up in 70% of Yahoo! leagues and 60% of ESPN formats. First base and corner infield are pretty deep positions, but Morneau’s RoS ZiPS is friendly enough to play at utility or CI. I’d act now before others pounce on him
• Steve Cishek picked up his second save in less than a week last night for the Marlins. He certainly makes the best case. His seasonal ERA is down to 1.91 and he has 15 shut downs to just five melt downs. In the especially tumultuous bullpen that is the Marlins, I’d go with Cishek for now. He is the guy currently listed as closer on the Marlins official website, so I’d defer to that. He should be available in 70% of both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
• Last night was a career night for Ike Davis. He went 4-4 and blasted a trio of home runs. He’s up to 20 homers on the year now and has driven in 60 RBI’s. His triple slash is still pretty brutal at .216/.281/.448, but maybe he’s finally coming around. His projection isn’t too friendly either, but Davis could be worth picking up. Davis is owned in 50% of Yahoo! and ESPN, but I’d still prefer Morneau over Davis.
For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here are a couple matchups you may be able to exploit.
A Pitcher for Today: Travis Blackley at BAL
Blackley has a beast of a curve ball. When he throws it, batters are hitting .154/.175/.179 off of it.
A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Hisashi Iwakuma vs TOR
Pitching at home means that his home run issue shouldn’t be much of an issue at all.
A Hitter for Today: Ian Kinsler vs CWS (Gavin Floyd)
Floyd gave up six walks in his last start and against a tough Rangers lineup, that will come back to hurt him. I expect a big day from a lot of Rangers hitters, specifically Kinsler.
Morneau over Davis? Really? Last night was not some sort of fluke for Davis – Ike has been hot for 2 months. Relevant stats since June 1st:
Morneau: 3 HR/18 R/19 RBI/.260
Davis: 15 HR/28 R/39 RBI/.250
You’re giving up a LOT of counting stats for that 10 pts of avg
If you want to stay with just July….
Morneau: 2 HR/12 R/10 RBI/.295
Davis: 9 HR/12 R/15 RBI/.256
A little closer, but Davis destroys Morneau in the power categories, and .250 won’t kill you. I don’t think this is even close.
Since June 1st, only 4 players have more HR than Ike (Kubel, Trumbo, Wiliingham, Cabrera)
Morneau over Davis? Nope. Chill.
Yeah, you haven’t been paying attention, Ike came around at the beginning of June and has been hot ever since. He was just so terrible in April and May that his season line still hasn’t recovered, and his ratios will probably still be crappy at the end of the season, likely making him a slight value pick for next season. I’ll be buying.
Good point. I whiff on the NL from time to time.
Ike also had 2 other things going on earlier in the year that may have straightened themselves out:
- That Valley Fever craziness
- A personal war with home plate umpires. He was whining on every called strike and in his defense, umps were calling a lot of garbage pitches on him, maybe because of his whining. In turn, he may have been chasing more garbage because of it. This hasn’t been happening nearly as much lately.
Thankfully that Valley Fever thing has (seemingly) died down. It isn’t something that should be banished completely from our minds though, not yet.
Picky, but “driven in 60 RBIs” is a little redundant.
Fair enough! I don’t think I say that too often. I’ll watch out for it though, thanks.
David I need your help man! I dont want to bench Matt Moore this week but have no clue which starter to replace in the lineup for him.
Greinke @ CWS
Haren @ Texas
Felix @ NYY
Kershaw vs Cubs
CJ Wilson @ Texas
I can also replace Street or Jansen in the RP slots which am more hesitant to do. I was leaning to taking out one of the SPs in Texas but they havent been swinging the bats well enough to scare anyone really. Thoughts?
I’d start Felix and Kershaw. They’re the best two pitchers there, regardless of opponent.
I agree with what you say. But would you start Matt Moore over those other 3 this week or leave him on the bench?
Start him. I’ve drank his kool-aid all year.
I’m still a believer. And he’s still a good pitcher.
Oh wait. Would I start him OVER those? Hmm. In order:
Kershaw, Felix, Greinke, Haren (yes even this year), Moore, Wilson
Much obliged. I overpaid for Matt Moore on draft day but hes finally looks like an every week starter at this point and I have too many SPs because of it.
Not a problem, thanks for reading!
I wrote about Jemile Weeks on my blog today. Essentially what I found is that in 2011, he hit off-speed pitches at an elite level that only 11 qualified hitters managed to do. This year, he is about the worst hitter in the MLB at hitting off-speed pitches. As he does not crush fastballs, either, this has led to his anemic slash line in 2012.