Roto Riteup: July 5, 2013

With apologies to the late night games, today’s Roto Riteup was written before they concluded. Fireworks are cool.

On today’s agenda:
1. Dan Straily‘s strong outing
2. A new place in the batting order for Elvis Andrus
3. Marcell Ozuna fills up the 5×5 line

Dan Straily‘s strong outing
Yesterday Dan Straily held the visiting Chicago Cubs scoreless over seven innings. He allowed just one hit — though he did permit three walks. Straily struck out six on the day and had 11 swinging strikes on 87 pitches. He did receive some help in the form a strong outfield throw from Yoenis Cespedes to gun down (a jogging) Starlin Castro at the plate in the fourth inning. Straily is a fly ball pitcher and thus prone the occasional home run, though that issue is mitigated by his home park. If he is starting at home or in a fly-ball friendly ballpark, Straily makes for a solid stream option. He is available in over 90% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues 70% of CBS formats.

A new place in the batting order for Elvis Andrus
For those fantasy managers who own Andrus, it should be no surprise to hear that his real life manager, Ron Washington, has also noticed Andrus scuffling at the plate. Andrus is now hitting .241/.296/.283 and has just two extra-base hits — both doubles — in the past month. The Texas Rangers gave him plenty of time and plate appearances at the top of the batting order, however that patience has seemingly run out. Andrus hit eighth in yesterday’s game and will most likely see time there until he turns things around.

Perhaps the real cause of the struggles is his .286 BABIP is almost 30 points lower than his career average and we all know what a fickle thing BABIP can be. He is swinging outside of the zone a bit more this year, up to 26.1% versus a 23.1% career mark, though that could be attributed to him pressing at the plate as his frustrations mount. That being said, Andrus’ walk and strikeout rates are in line with his career numbers. Buying low on Andrus seems to be a good move. His BABIP should stabilize and return to career norms and there is nothing in his swing peripherals that would suggest any real worry. A scout could better break down Andrus’ swing and look for any mechanical flaws, though from where the present author is sitting (at a computer, naturally) the process appears intact. The results should follow shortly.

Marcell Ozuna fills up the 5×5 line
At the time of writing, Marcell Ozuna was 2-for-3 with a home run and a steal. That marks just his third home run and fifth steal of the year, though Ozuna does have a nice .291 batting average as well. Not everything is coming up Milhouse for him however, as his paltry 3.8% walk rate gives him a mere .322 OBP. Of course for someone who has never experienced Triple-A pitching, the 22-year-old Ozuna is more than holding his own. His full power potential is yet to be reached in the show, as he posted three consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs in the minors, though if and when it does Ozuna will be owned in every fantasy league. His home park and the lineup around him won’t do much for his power or counting numbers, but he still makes for an intriguing deep league play. Ozuna isn’t quite ready for standard 12-team mixed leagues just yet, however he should be owned in 14-team leagues and any NL-only format. He is currently owned in just 12% of Yahoo! leagues, 23% of ESPN formats, and 30% of CBS leagues. Standard 12-team mixed leaguers should add him to your watch list, as his power might translate sooner rather than later.




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You can catch David spouting off about baseball, the Oakland A's, StarCraft II, and other nerdy things by following him on twitter.

32 Responses to “Roto Riteup: July 5, 2013”

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  1. Ruki Motomiya says:

    Is it just the BABIP for Andrus? His ISO is also down .050 compared to most of the previous years (though I presume the slight walk rate decrease is either noise or simply within error bars). It seems like that’d also be a big deal.

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    • David Wiers says:

      Right, his slugging has tanked. His batted ball numbers don’t appear any different, though he is hitting a few more grounders. Ground balls have a higher BABIP (though lower xwOBA) than fly balls. I ran Andrus’ numbers through Bradley Woodrum’s SHH and it spit out that Andrus should be posting a 66 wRC+. You’re right; what little power Andrus has shown in the past isn’t showing at all this year.

      With the day off I ran a quick check on something. For qualified batters (or batters on pace to qualify this year) since 1990, Andrus has the ninth lowest ISO of any player. His 2010 season where he posted a .036 ISO is the second lowest in 14 seasons…d and he had a .317 BABIP that year!

      Of course there is a weak correlation between BABIP and ISO, but that 2010 season of his is just incredible to me. For fantasy purposes, I still like Andrus to bounce back. His 2010 season represents his low water mark (other than this year) in average, SLG, and wOBA. He’s coming off of two straight seasons of a .285 average and almost a .350 OBP. I’m buying him.

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  2. Darren says:

    Guys! I have to drop a pitcher as Anibel Sanchez is coming back off the DL. My options are basically Tyler Chatwood, Kyle Gibson or Scott Feldman. It’ll hurt but who do I drop???

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    • mikeincmn says:

      I would put it between Chatwood or Gibson, I guess I would lean towards dropping Gibson just because I think he is going to be hurt by having a mediocre bullpen and bad team around him.

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    • David Wiers says:

      I’d drop Chatwood. Tough home park and while the Twins have three more blown saves than the Rockies, the Rockies have more meltdowns at 37 vs 35 for Minnesota. Neither bullpen is great, but I’d rather have Gibson at Target Field.

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  3. mikeincmn says:

    Any thoughts on Ike Davis? Reports are he is coming back Friday or Saturday, he is available in quite a few Yahoo leagues, would you take a bit of a wait and see approach or should he be picked up immediately in standard 12 team league?

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  4. cheerfulmags says:

    How would you feel about trading for Scherzer? I ask because discussion has centered on Ozuna and/or Rizzo. If you’re sending scherzer in a roto keeper league who you asking for? Ozuna plus a young pitcher?

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  5. Chris says:

    I just traded Ozuna away in a dynasty league for Mike Minor as I was in desperate need of pitching. Did I get enough for Ozuna?

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  6. Cochise says:

    What do you guys think about Andrus, Hamels and Myers for Buchholz and Stanton standard roto?

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  7. peachesnnuts says:

    Weirs,

    I know this is hard to believe but school teachers in rural africa have a lot of time on their hands so I started watching the OC on the reccomendation from some friends. I can’t believe it is entertaining me but i never gave that show enough credit. Thought you should know. Also thought I would tell yo uin the comments of your fangraphs piece.

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    • David Wiers says:

      I love you. Never change.

      The OC is legit the first season and okay in season 2. It really drops off after that, but there are some good lines/quotes in the later seasons.

      Miss you buddy!

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      • peachesnnuts says:

        I’m a little bummed you didn’t call me out for spelling your name wrong. I’m coming home in a month so so you can get your fill.

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      • David Wiers says:

        I’m used to it by now.

        Rivals II starts in five days. CT and Wes are the on same team, so unless there are ton of mental challenges, that’s game over.

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  8. dirck says:

    I just traded Pedroia,Gio,Myers and Addison Russell for Harper in a 16 team dynasty league .how much did I over-pay ?

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    • David Wiers says:

      Gio, and Pedroia are useful now, so if they left gaping holes in your team at SP and 2B I don’t like it. I’m not crazy about Myers so you didn’t lose anything there.

      Russell has the chance to be great, but he is still multiple seasons away.

      I suppose if you needed a long term OF then Harper is the way to go. In a league as deep as yours, especially in a dynasty format, young superstars are worth their weight in gold. I’d say you did okay, assuming you have reasonable backups for pitchers and MI.

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    • Juan B says:

      Significantly

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  9. Al says:

    What is one to make of Anthony Rizzo at this point? In mid-May we were talking like he could be a top 1B ROS and he’s done very little since.

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    • David Wiers says:

      I took a look at his June numbers and he posted just two homers, but he did have 19 walks vs 15 strikeouts. I think he’s still adjusting to to major league pitching and some ups and downs are inevitable.

      Rizzo’s June wasn’t what we hoped for power-wise, but he still has an outside shot at 30 homers.

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  10. Billy says:

    Have Brandon Phillips, Nick Franklin, JJ Hardy, Anthony Rendon, and Brian Roberts available for SS/2B/Util and can start four of the five. Who should I sit today? Going forward?

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  11. David Wiers says:

    Weekly league? Keep sitting Roberts. If it’s a daily league, check the lineups and see who is playing. Phillips and Franklin should be auto starts, but Rendon, Hardy, and Roberts can all be rotated.

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  12. deezy333op says:

    Would.you start Cashner @ WAS tonight? Thanks David!

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  13. Aaaron says:

    Who do you like better for the second half – Pujols or Headley?

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