Roto Riteup: June 1, 2013

By the time you read this, the first season of the World Championship Series for the Korean region, also known as GSL, will have been played. If anyone has any interest in StarCraft II, the present author urges you to check it out. Become an eSports while reading baseball nerd articles!

On today’s agenda:
1. Stephen Strasburg exits after two innings
2. A couple two home run days
3. The Empire Strikes Back
4. Keep the faith in Shaun Marcum

Stephen Strasburg exits after two innings
The Washington Nationals — and really, baseball fans everywhere — held their breath as Stephen Strasburg left his start yesterday after two innings against the Atlanta Braves. The Nationals have made it known that it was back pain, specifically an oblique strain. He’ll require further analysis over the weekend, however the key takeaway is at least this isn’t an elbow or shoulder injury.

A couple two home run days
Both Jonathan Lucroy and Domonic Brown each powered two home runs yesterday. Brown has been ridiculously hot all month long and he made the final day of the month really matter. He drove in four with his home runs and now sits at 36 RBIs. Another important tidbit is that he now leads the National League with 15 home runs.

Lucroy’s perfect 5-for-5 game yesterday — that included a double in addition to his home runs — surpassed Brown’s day. That being said, even after yesterday’s big game, Lucroy’s line sits at .253/.306/.399. As Michael Barr pointed out just yesterday, if you were looking to grab a catcher, Lucroy makes for a great rebound candidate. He won’t dazzle you with amazing stats, even for a catcher,  and he doesn’t have to put up amazing stats to be worthy of ownership in two catcher leagues or even for fellow catcher streamers. Lucroy is owned in less than 30% of ESPN leagues, 40% of Yahoo! leagues, and 70% of CBS formats.

The Empire Strikes Back
No, this isn’t about the greatest sequel of all time (yes, over The Godfather Part II), but about the New York Yankees getting Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis back from the disabled list. While Teixeira is owned in over 90% of leagues for the three major sites, Youkilis lags behind at 37% in ESPN, 45% for Yahoo!, and 70% at CBS. Youkilis has a starting job, is third base eligible, and should have a solid on-base percentage. He should continue to get run plenty of scoring and RBI chances with his solid OBP combined with him hitting in the top half of the Yankee lineup. His right-handed bat — plus the switch hitting Teixeira — give the Yankees some much needed lineup a flexibility. Prior to his injury, Youkilis hit almost exclusively third or cleanup, though that was without Teixeira avilable. Given the options on the third base waiver wire, Youkilis should be an easy pick up and a likely upgrade.

Keep the faith in Shaun Marcum
He may only have one quality start this season — not to mention an ERA approaching six — but there are good things on the horizon for Shaun Marcum. His start yesterday was another somewhat rough outing, but fear not, for help is on the way. Maybe help is the wrong word, how about regression to the mean? Marcum’s 5.71 ERA stands in stark contrast to his 3.21 FIP and 4.00 xFIP. He has been getting BABIP’d into submission and his 59% LOB% rate is painful to see. Both of those numbers are unsustainable, and while his home run rate may creep up slightly, overall regression should work in Marcum’s favor.

The reasons to worry about him have been largely overstated and owners dropping him instead of simply benching him are knee-jerk reactions. His strikeout to walk ratio is over 3.5 and his SwStr% remains in line with his career average. Ride out the bumpy times or buy low on Marcum and let him post his typical numbers for you. With a measure of discernment on your behalf regarding his match ups, there is no reason that Marcum can’t post a sub 3.50 ERA with 100+ strikeouts in your team log. Marcum is available in over 80% of ESPN formats, 75% of Yahoo! leagues, and 63% of CBS leagues.




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49 Responses to “Roto Riteup: June 1, 2013”

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  1. Nick says:

    Just traded Fister for Marcum and BJ Upton. Marcum has a better strikeout rate, he should post a lower BABIP and I have faith in his ability to supress HR given that he gets to pitch so often in favorable parks (Citi/Marlins/nationals). The wins might not come as frequently but theres also a possibility he gets traded to a contender at the deadline. BJ has always been hot and cold; I’m hoping that eventually ill get all of the hot and none of the cold.

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    • David Wiers says:

      Good deal for you. Savvy trade.

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    • Rory says:

      Although it all depends on your league’s scoring, I dont think that was a good trade. BJ has not his above .250 for 5 years, and his stolen bases are way down. Not only are SBs down but he has been caught stealing 50% of the time. A little scary considering over the last 5 years he has averaged 22% CS.

      Aside from BJ, Doug Fister has comparable #s to marcum over the last five years, although has stayed healthy less. But Fister is younger and still shows numbers are progressing.

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  2. colbyamoss says:

    So I sold high with Dominic Brown. Brown & Torii Hunter for Cain effective tomorrow.
    Shortsighted?
    (I also needed room on offense for the return of Tex and Hanley).

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    • pudieron89 says:

      getting matt cain is selling high? he’s been terrible.

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    • Joe says:

      Hopefully it’s not a keeper league. Brown is looking like Adam Jones.

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    • David says:

      Yikes. Cain has lost loads of velocity…you got fleeced.

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      • Ben says:

        I would take the Cain side everyday of the week. His track record speaks for itself. Brown and hunter were probalby waiver wire pickups in most leagues. I say you made a good deal. Cain will get back to his normal self soon.

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      • Jason B. says:

        “Brown and hunter were probalby waiver wire pickups in most leagues.”

        Where they were drafted, how much they cost, etc., are totally inconsequential unless it’s a keeper league. You may be right that the Cain side of the trade is better off, but it’s completely irrespective of their acquisition cost.

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    • David Wiers says:

      I’m not crazy about that deal.

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    • Giovani says:

      Hunter has been extremely useful. He should score a ton of runs in that lineup, and his LD% seems like a function of how many pitches he’s seeing hitting in it.

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    • David says:

      Ben – another day, another 9 H and 7 ER in 3 IP for Cain. 5.68 ERA in 12 starts. Still like this trade guy? Everyone has a day when they aren’t who they used to be. Today is that day for Matt Cain.

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      • colbyamoss says:

        Looking at the ERA xFIP differential has me thinking that it’s only a matter of time for him to get back on his feet. Brown was a waiver pick up earlier in the week, which has been great, but I need to dump outfielders to make space. So essentially for me it was Hunter and a waiver wire guy for a 3rd rounder.

        Brown still may be great going on through this year, but my outfield is pretty solid, so I took a risk on past history and hope.

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    • Rory says:

      I have D. Brown too. I have fought with the same question on what to do with him. But even if he does great the rest of the year, I you are limiting your risk by trading him.

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  3. pudieron89 says:

    James Loney also hit two homers today.

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  4. lee says:

    what to do with brett lawrie?

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  5. Zach Sanders says:

    There Wiers goes again, using the RR platform to promote utter nerdom outside of the baseballing world.

    Your mother and I are going to have a serious talk, young man.

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  6. Stuck in a Slump says:

    Does Youkilis’ return hurt Hafner’s playing time? Noticed that he was slated as the DH last night, but not sure if that was because they were easing him back in and it was a tough lefty in Lester, or if they intend on having him DH more to keep him healthy.

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    • David Wiers says:

      Given the fragility of both, I’d expect to see Youk cut in a bit to Hafner’s DH time, but not much. The Yanks need Youkilis at third base; he should get the vast majority of his time there.

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  7. Chris says:

    Is Beachy worth a spot on my bench and will his return send Teheran to the pen? Is Cole Hamels gonna regain his dominance this season?

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    • Paul says:

      Depends, but in most leagues yes. I’ve had him stashed in one of my DL slots since mid-April. Yes…he’s Cole Hamels.

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  8. David Wiers says:

    Yes, stash Beachy now! I adore him.

    I don’t know if Teheran goes to the pen upon Beachy’s activation, but either he or Maholm will be the odd man out.

    Yes, buy low on him!

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    • Chris says:

      I dropped Cahill for Beachy. Am I crazy for rolling with Lackey over Hamels it doesnt feel right but it working

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  9. Brian says:

    The curse of the Blue Jay is dragging my team down… but, I’m getting people interested in Jose Reyes.

    I play in a 10 team keeper league and Reyes would cost either a 1st or 2nd round pick to keep. I’m not sure how well speedy players recover from ankle injuries and I’m not sure if he’ll be healthy long enough to help me down the stretch. I also have an oft-injured Hanley Ramirez and Erick Aybar as my other two shortstops.

    So, what’s a reasonable return for Reyes?

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  10. jose says:

    Am I dumb to keep holding on to Weeks (OBP league)? MI waiver fodder includes Aybar, Nick Franklin, and the like.

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    • David Wiers says:

      No, he’ll come around. I’m not worried about Weeks.

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    • Nick says:

      I agree. If you look at his average HR + FB distance (baseballheatmaps.com) it’s actually very high at over 300 feet. The problem is he’s not hitting enough of them (only 21). He still walks at an above average rate which helps for OBP leagues. Once he starts making more contact and the BABIP regresses he’ll be fine. I wouldn’t start him but definitely stash him.

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  11. Jay says:

    Cingrani for,Granderson?

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  12. From age says:

    Need advice from anyone: which of those are most likely to rebound: Heyward, Hamilton or Cespedes? Would you trade D. Brown for any of those at this point?

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  13. thehonbtw says:

    Is it smart to bench Bumgarner this week (for Cahill)… Cahill is two-start and Madison has been getting rocked this past month.

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  14. asdfasdf says:

    Hey David,
    I have a few guys with injury worries for this week’s matchup: Sandoval and Pagan. Should I bench either of them for Hanley (who could be back on Tuesday I think) or Moustakas? Thanks!

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    • David Wiers says:

      I’m starting Pablo this week. I don’t know if that is right or wrong, but if he misses a lot of time, well, misery loves company.

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      • MVPrado says:

        Re: Pablo. Was offered Starlin and Pablo Sandoval for Tulo. 12 team keeper, roto. Offensive subjects: R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, NSB.
        My current 3B is David Freese, and I would likely drop Andrelton Simmons to make the manuever. Opinion?

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      • David Wiers says:

        Would Freese move to a CI/UTIL role, or would he hit your bench?

        Tulo is the best player in the deal, but health is always going to be an issue. That said, it isn’t like Pablo is a lock for 155 games every year either.

        I think I’d take Castro + Sandoval over Tulo, but before you drop Simmons, you should trade him for something. Since it is a keeper league, Simmons holds value.

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      • Jason B. says:

        …but not much value with those hitting categories. (Re: Simmons.) I’m not sure who would give up much of anything to stash him for a year or two in hopes that he contributes significantly someday.

        (Not that I dislike Simmons, just that he doesn’t offer much that you can’t already find on waivers except in the deepest of leagues. His value is undoubtedly higher in real life than in offense-heavy roto.)

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  15. Dan says:

    heh Starcraft

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