Roto Riteup: May 11, 2013

No album or band recommendations today, back to pure baseball.

On today’s agenda:
1. Jayson Werth to the disabled list
2. Garrett Jones‘s night at the plate
3. Adam LaRoche‘s hitting streak
4. Kyuji Fujikawa returns to action

Jayson Werth to the disabled list
It has been more than a week since Jayson Werth last appeared in a game and the Washington Nationals appear to be ready to move him to the 15-day disabled list. With a move retroactive to the May 3, the club anticipates that Werth would most likely return as soon as May 18, thus missing the minimum amount of time. Werth has been hitting in various spots throughout the top half of the lineup, but prior to this hamstring strain he was most recently hitting clean up. If he continues to hit fourth expect a boost in RBIs against his rest-of-season projections one he is back.

Garrett Jones‘ night at the plate
Yesterday Garrett Jones went 3-for-5 with two doubles and a home run, tallying three RBIs for his efforts. He is now hitting a robust .301/348/.534 on the season and has launched five home runs and nine doubles. He is in the top 25 in the National League in RBIs and wOBA and given that the vast majority of his playing time has come while hitting clean up, expect more RBIs to follow. Jones’ .342 BABIP is sure to come down, but after a 27 home run, 28 double season last year, Jones has continued to hit the ball hard this season. He shouldn’t be a fantasy cornerstone, but he does offer value in almost any format or league. From this point forward expect an average around .260 with 50+ runs and 60+ RBIs. Add in 15-20 home runs and you have a good, cheap player who is first base and outfield eligible. He is owned in 77% of ESPN leagues but under 40% of both CBS and Yahoo! formats.

Adam LaRoche‘s hitting streak
Continuing the theme of NL East hitters, Adam LaRoche had two hits yesterday and now has hit safely in seven straight games. His seasonal line is still a dismal .208/.298/.321 — mostly due to brutal 1-for-36 slump prior to this hitting streak —  which can best be described as a “back up catcher” level of offense. In addition to the hits, LaRoche has six walks (including one IBB) against five strikeouts over his past seven games. One nit pick is that as one can see from his slugging percentage, the extra-base hits have largely eluded LaRoche thus far. Despite the early power outage, LaRoche has hit either fourth or fifth in the lineup every game save one this year, and he should be secure there. If the Nationals didn’t overreact to his early season struggles and move him down, he should have no problem accumulating his traditional counting numbers now that he is hitting the ball.

LaRoche is a notoriously slow starter, as his career March/April numbers come to a .307 wOBA against a career .348 wOBA overall. His cumulative .328 first half wOBA pales in comparison to his .375 second half wOBA. Arbitrary end points known as months and the All-Star break aside, LaRoche seems to have gotten past his typical early season struggle. One should feel comfortable trading for him or even picking him up, as he is available in over 40% of CBS leagues and 50% of both ESPN and Yahoo! formats.

Kyuji Fujikawa returns to action
The Chicago Cubs activated Kyuji Fujikawa from the 15-day disabled list yesterday. He pitched one inning, gave up one hit and struck out one. As he eases back into action, Fujikawa will initially pitch in middle relief as Kevin Gregg is the current closer, but Gregg owners would be wise to handcuff Fujikawa or saves hungry fantasy managers could grab Fujikawa and hope the Cubs make a change. For now, expect holds and high leverage outings from Fujikawa, as well as getting the nod as the next closer in line should Gregg falter or be unavailable. One can find Fujikawa available in over 60% of leagues from the three major sites.




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23 Responses to “Roto Riteup: May 11, 2013”

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  1. Fei says:

    What are Fukijiwa’s odds of getting the CL’s job?

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  2. binqasim says:

    What’s Loney’s value right now? Is he worth picking up?

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    • David Wiers says:

      He’ll have low counting stats and a decent, albeit empty average. If you’re hurting at CI, he is okay to roster for awhile, but I wouldn’t be making a trade for him.

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  3. shapular says:

    I’m looking for a replacement for Niese. The top FA guys I’m looking at are Roberto Hernandez, Jose Fernandez, and Hector Santiago. Josh Johnson is there too. Who would you go with? Fernandez’s innings limit may not be a huge deal since I’ve got Luebke on the DL, but I’m also riding out Morrow right now.

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  4. David Wiers says:

    I’d rank them as:

    Morrow
    Johnson
    Jose Fernandez
    Hector Santiago
    Roberto Hernandez

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  5. Fedee_ says:

    I have to drop either Zach McAllister or Kyle Kendrick because ill be activating Greinke soon. Is it that obvious that I drop McAllister or do I stick with him?

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  6. Jay says:

    Dave,

    Two questions: Erlin in the rotation soon? And who does KC replace Davis with if he continues to struggle? Hochevar?

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    • David Wiers says:

      Those are better questions for the prospect guys. I don’t really have the prospect knowledge/insight that they have, and I would hate to steer you wrong.

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    • wily mo says:

      hochevar has been so good in the pen, after being so bad for so long as a starter, i’d be really surprised if they reversed what looks like a succeeding conversion experiment just because davis (who, it’s perhaps worth noting at this point, is also a guy who used to struggle as a starter, then had a good year as a reliever, and then they tried to turn him back into a starter) is throwing bad.

      i’d figure on either Return of Bruce Chen or will smith, who’s already been used as a spot starter and is actually putting up strangely good numbers in AAA

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  7. Chippchipp says:

    Hey David,
    Would you drop Smyly for Liriano?

    Thanks

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    • David Wiers says:

      Have the Tigers announced that Smyly is getting moved to the rotation? I don’t fully trust Liriano, but he has guaranteed starts coming his way.

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      • Chippchipp says:

        Yeah, I guess I’ll pick up Liriano and switch him out if/when Smyly goes to the rotation. Thanks!

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  8. Francisco Liriano says:

    Who do you like best in mixed leagues going forward: Liriano, Cingrani, or Cashner?

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  9. Matthew says:

    I need a spot starter for tomorrow 5/12. I need K’s and as good of a shot for a win as I can get. Who they are facing is in parenthesis. My options are Roberto Hernandez (Padres), Eric Stults (Rays), Zach McAllister (Tigers), Brandon McCarthy (Phillies), Scott Feldman (Nationals), Wei-Yin Chen (Twins) and Nick Tepesch (Astros). Any help would be great!

    Thanks!

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    • David Wiers says:

      I like Chen and McCarthy the best there.

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    • Jonathan Sher says:

      None of your options are great strikeout choices and picking a pitcher for one game is a bit of a crap shoot but I would go with Hernandez, for a couple of reasons.

      First, he’s been striking out 9 batters per 9 innings this season, far more than any of your other options, and while it would be tempting to write off his high rate because of the short sample size and a lengthy history of a much lower k-rate, another possibility is Joe Maddon has helped turned around another pitcher.

      Second, he’s pitching against the Padres, who have struck out the 4th most in the majors, more than 8 times per game. The only other opponent more prone to Ks on your list is the Astros but I’m not as confident in Tepesch’s ability to strikeout batters.

      If you think getting a win outweighs the potential for K’s, Tepesch is probably your best bet — the Astros are awful.

      None of that is knock on Chen or McCarthy – I like both pitchers more than I do Hernandez or Tepesch — but I like the matchups of the latter two better.

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  10. Save Chaser says:

    Lots of questions here so I will ask mine: drop Niese for Teheran?

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