Roto Riteup: May 28, 2013

Three day weekends are the best, but now we’re back in the swing of things.

On today’s agenda:
1. The return of Joba Chamberlain
2. Carlos Gomez‘s power
3. Continued success of Jhoulys Chacin
4. Make a move for Ben Revere

The return of Joba Chamberlain
The New York Yankees will activate Joba Chamberlain from the 15-day disabled list today. Manager Joe Girardi said that Chamberlain will return to his seventh inning role most of the time, though could also see some eighth inning duties if David Robertson needs a rest. Don’t expect saves from Chamberlain, but for fellow holds league players, Joba makes for a useful reliever. His velocity was in the mid 90′s in a simulated game on Saturday and he is seemingly past his oblique injury.

Carlos Gomez‘s power
For the second time this weekend, Carlos Gomez has cracked two homers in a single game. He now has 10 home runs on the year and has subsequently answered just about any question regarding his 19 home run — and career high .202 ISO — season last year. At his current pace, Gomez would be in line for a 30-30 season. The home run power will mostly likely wane before he reaches the 30 plateau, however there should be no doubt that Gomez has added a new dimension to his game.

One would like to see a promotion up the lineup, as a 2-3-4-5 of Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Aramis Ramirez, and Gomez in some order would be quite formidable. Any such promotion in the lineup would of course carry more RBI chances, but perhaps at the cost of Gomez’s running ability. No reason to run in front of Braun and risk an out. Hypotheticals aside, Gomez is a player that apparently was severely under-rated in the preseason. Hat tip to all of you who saw his potential.

Continued success of Jhoulys Chacin
Yesterday Jhoulys Chacin pitched seven innings of two run ball and fanned nine along the way. Sure, it came in a start against the Houston Astros, so take a grain of salt with it, however Chacin does have a 2.93 FIP on the season. His ERA and xFIP are nearly identical at 3.90 and 3.94 respectively, as his 0.16 HR/9 rate is skewing his FIP. For now, Chacin has shown enough to be owned and spot started, a mark up from his previous tag as “stream candidate” and “avoid at all costs” of last season. Don’t go trading the farm for Chacin, as you probably won’t have to anyways. He is owned in just 16% of ESPN leagues, 23% of Yahoo! leagues, and 40% of CBS formats.

Make a move for Ben Revere
When talking about trades or waiver wire acquisitions, a lot of time the words “in a vacuum” are thrown around. The issue is that not everything is as simple as that. League settings, size, and even participation all vary greatly. Factor in injuries, call ups, breakout seasons, and what not and there is a huge amount of noise to sort through. Further clouding one’s decision is the change that major league baseball brings to the table as well. What fantasy owners manage only goes as far as what happens on the field.

The following table represents league wide stolen bases broken down in a month-by-month format.

May 2013    377
March/April 2013    419
Sept/October 2012    616
August 2012    531
July 2012    545
June 2012    541
May 2012    578
March/April 2012    418

With just three days remaining in May, one feels confident in saying that May 2013 will see considerably fewer steals than May 2012. It is interesting — at least to this particular baseball nerd — that the two years of March/April steals are essentially the same, however the May months differ so greatly. Whether or not a trend of major league teams de-valuing steals develops throughout this season is something to keep a sharp eye. If steals become more scarce in baseball, they also will become more valuable in fantasy baseball. (The present author will leave the game theory and the real data evaluation/mining to brighter minds. This just caught the eye.)

Here is where Ben Revere can help you. Including the minors, Revere has grabbed at least 40 steals every season of his professional career. He has a career .275 batting average and while he won’t do much for you in terms of home runs or RBIs, his steals are valuable and his batting average is solid. Revere did have an X-ray on his hand yesterday in regards to some pain after hitting the wall making a catch, however the X-ray came back negative. He’ll probably be day-to-day for a little while, but is still worthy of being picked up. He is available in 65% of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues and over half of CBS formats. If steals dry up league wide, expect Revere to become a hot commodity.




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32 Responses to “Roto Riteup: May 28, 2013”

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  1. Shauntell47 says:

    What about Nick Franklin? Picked him up in several leagues, will he play, will he be good?

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    • dscottncc says:

      I too was hoping for some Nick Franklin love this morning. There is a little info on him in the Mariners top 15 prospect list. After watching him live 2 games, I think the average is for real. He doesn’t have blazing speed, but can swipe 5-10 bases. He won’t hit for a ton of power, but def above average for his position.

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    • David Wiers says:

      Given that Ackley was demoted, yeah, grab Franklin across the board.

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  2. Al says:

    I’d guess that the weather has at least a small part to play in the reduced number of steals. This has been a very cold, wet may in much of the country.

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  3. Billy M says:

    Was offered Elvis Andrus for my Aramis Ramirez in a 5×5, 12 team mixed

    Ramirez is in one of my Util spots, Andrus will replace Dee Gordon

    I could use the help in R and SB (though Im behind in HR too)

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    • David Wiers says:

      Do you have a capable third baseman ready to step in? If you can take the hit in RBIs, yeah, this deal is alright.

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      • Billy M says:

        Yeah, Adrian Beltre is my 3B.

        Id be able to start Gattis at Util to help lessen the drop in power numbers. (Though Id probably be platooning him with someone else since he doest start every day.)

        Franklin is on the wire right now though…

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  4. Bobby A says:

    Is it Yasmani Grandal time?

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    • David Wiers says:

      I’d make sure he gets the majority of the playing time (and he should) before I drop anyone significant for him. Give it a few days, in normal 2-catcher leagues, but if you league is like 14 or 16-teams, yeah, grab him.

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      • fei says:

        Should I drop either Doumit or Lucroy for Grandal?

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      • David Wiers says:

        Just saw this on Sunday’s post. I wouldn’t drop either just yet.

        Both are getting killed by their BABIP’s.

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      • mikeincmn says:

        Also of note on Doumit is the Twins sent Oswaldo Arcia down to AAA, meaning Doumit figures to go back to being in the lineup everyday again. Gardenhire wont be sitting him to give at bats to Arcia and Parmalee instead.

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  5. Jabronies says:

    You cant say David Ortiz didnt do his part to up the May SB numbers

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  6. stretchfest says:

    A word of advice if you would please:

    My 1Bs in my limited keeper league (standard yahoo h2h + TB) are Fielder, Goldy and Ortiz. My team’s doing great but I’m looking to shore up my pitching for the long haul. If I were to try to move one, it would be Ortiz, right? What caliber pitcher could I reasonably fetch? I can’t find any website’s pre-draft auction values that don’t massively underrate Ortiz, plus I always have trouble comparing hitters and pitchers.

    Any advice would be great, love the work BTW Dave.

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    • David Wiers says:

      My friend, flattery will get you everywhere.

      I used Bloomberh’s Front Office 2012 last season for my trade analysis and it was magnificent, however they didn’t make one this year.

      Sadface.

      Anyways, I have a couple other tools available though, so no worries!

      Using the standard Yahoo! league settings (12 team, 13 hitters, 9 pitchers with LF, CF, and RF designations) + total bases, I came up with a couple options.

      David Ortiz has been worth a fifth rounder, 36th best hitter overall. I’d expect him to slow down a bit, so let’s call him a seventh rounder or so.

      Guys to target range from James Shields, Yovanni Gallardo, Jon Lester, or even Hyun-Jin Ryu.

      Target SP2/very good 3 types and you’ll be fine.

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      • stretchfest says:

        Thanks a bunch Dave! That’s about the tier I expected. Since my league counts QS instead of wins I’ll probably try to pry away Shields. Keep up the good work and go Cashner (owner in both my leagues)!

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  7. Kevin says:

    I’m surprised there was no mention of Tyler Skaggs debut, he looked dynamite.

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  8. Ben says:

    i just got offered Nate McClouth for Matt Kemp. 5×5 redraft. Am I crazy for considering this?

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  9. Jay says:

    In a deep keeper league I was offered Granderson for Cingrani. What do you think?

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  10. dirck says:

    It’s hard to believe in Gomez when both last year and especially this year are better than anything he he ever did before ,even in the low minors ,but the longer he keeps it up ,the more believable he is .

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  11. Cheesewhiz says:

    Since I own both Segura and Gomez, I often wonder about that Brewers lineup. While both players have been great, I think some of their stats should be higher, which I blame on batting order. No problem with Segura at 2, but it might affect his SB. Personally(maybe selfishly), I’d like to see Aoki, Segura, Gomez, Braun, Hart, Ramirez as 1-6. Speed with the first 5 batters and good pop sounds like a scary order. Mostly, I’m getting really tired of seeing Gomez sandwiched between some combination of Weeks, Lucroy and Betencourt. And then watching Gomez hit a bases empty HR because those guys fouled or struck out. Or get on, steal a base, then get stranded, usually by Betencourt.

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    • David Wiers says:

      I’d probably switch Braun to 3, Gomez to five, Aramis to four, and Hart to six. Overall yeah, I agree that the Brewers lineup has been, umm…interesting. Lineups don’t matter *that* much in the grand scheme of things, but still.

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      • Cheesewhiz says:

        Amazingly, Carlos Gomez is currently the number one player by WAR.

        You would think that would deserve a promotion in the lineup.

        Obviously, he isn’t better than Miggy or Votto, but it says something.

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