Roto Riteup — Presented By DraftKings: August 23, 2014

Nine years ago today the band Jack’s Mannequin released their debut album titled “Everything in Transit.” It is nearly impossible for me to pick a favorite track, so I’ll just state The Mixed Tape is up there.

On today’s agenda:
1. Manny Machado done for the year
2. A great start from Carlos Carrasco
3. Drew Smyly‘s outing
4. Quick hit on Andrew Cashner
5. The daily five

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Manny Machado done for the year
The knee injury is about as bad as we could have feared for the young Baltimore infielder as he is now slated for season ending surgery. This marks the second year in a row where a knee injury prematurely ended Machado’s season and we can only hope it will be the last time. Still just 22-years old, Machado should be back and ready come spring training next year.

A great start from Carlos Carrasco
For the second time in three chances since being moved the rotation (for the second time), Carrasco posted a quality start. In yesterday’s outing against the Houston Astros he lasted six innings and allowed just one run. Carrasco held the Astros to a pair of hits and as many walks while sitting eight Houston batters down on strikes. He threw 90 pitches and induced 14 whiffs though he was denied the win by his bullpen.

Through his past three games starting Carrasco has pitched 18 innings and has 17 strikeouts, two walks and allowed seven hits. He’s been fortunate in the BABIP department over that time frame and that won’t last forever, but I believe the strikeouts will. Carrasco’s 11.9% SwStr% is the highest of career. His strikeout rate isn’t inflated from his time as a reliever as his 8.47 K/9 (23.2% K%) as a starter is higher than his 8.16 K/9 (23.1% K%) out of the bullpen. The talented duo of Mike Podhorzer and Eno Sarris each highlighted Carrasco’s numbers and pitches respectively and I urge you to read their material. Carrasco has seemingly settled into a rotation spot for the time being and should be grabbed where you’re streaming for the championship. One can find him in 60% of CBS formats and 80% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.

Drew Smyly’s outing
Prior to yesterday’s complete game shutout of the Toronto Blue Jays, right-handed hitters were absolutely crushing Smyly. He’s held fellow lefties to an excellent .200 wOBA however righties were posting a ridiculous .374 wOBA against him. Some of that could be attributed to his .334 BABIP when a righty is at the dish though I’m hesitant to make that claim with 100% certainty. Smyly’s batted ball profile splits are very different as RHB are hitting fly balls at a 45.3% rate — 10.5% HR/FB% — whereas LHB are putting the ball on the ground 50.5% of the time.

Without running a projection/simulation, just intuition, I feel I can say with a certain level of comfort Smyly won’t continue turning every right-handed batter into Carlos Gomez nor will each lefty keep hitting like Leury Garcia. Zooming out to his career splits increases the sample size and a .233 wOBA vs LHB and .344 wOBA vs RHB is probably closer to his true talent level than what we’ve seen this season. Smyly has been dancing through the raindrops en route to his 3.42 ERA this year. I don’t think he’ll need to dance for much longer, I think he’ll develop into a good starting pitcher.

Quick hit on Andrew Cashner
My boy Cashner will be making his first start in over two months against the Arizona Diamondbacks today. My fondness of him should be well known by now and you should love him as well. He is already owned in over 75% of both CBS and Yahoo! leagues however his 60% ESPN ownership rate makes him a great option to grab for the final weeks of the season. Let us hope he is finally healthy and able to turn in a handful of starts down the stretch.

The daily five
Starting pitcher: Zack Greinke — $10,800
The Mets don’t hit very well against the average pitcher. Greinke is no average pitcher.

Starting pitcher: Danny Salazar — $7,200
I’m getting sucked in by the strikeout potential of Salazar when he goes up against the Astros today.

Infielder: Derek Norris — $3,400
Norris will hold the platoon advantage over C.J. Wilson.

Outfielder: Giancarlo Stanton — $5,700
The Miami Marlins and Stanton will be on the road — at Coors Field — today. Stanton doesn’t need the platoon advantage over Jordan Lyles for me to think Stanton and his 158 wRC+ against righties will be just fine.

Other hitter: Christian Yelich — $5,100
Doubling down on Marlins outfielders.

Remaining budget: $17,800

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2 Responses to “Roto Riteup — Presented By DraftKings: August 23, 2014”

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  1. Mike Wimmer says:

    Oswaldo Arcia has been red hot since returning from a back injury early in the month. Are you buying him being legit down the stretch or is this just a nice run by a young hitter who early in his career seems very up and down so far. The reason I ask is I am considering moving on from Khris Davis and Arcia would be his replacement.

    Also, I dont want to put too much stock in a small sample size, but are we any closer to buying Danny Santana? I have agreed with you that he is due for regression, but every time it seems the bottom is about to fall out and he has a string of 0fers, he puts together another multi-hit stretch of nice production. Is there a chance Santana can keep this going the rest of the year and would you rather own him or Javier Baez as your starting SS in a redraft league this year?

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    • FeslenR says:

      I’d pluck Arcia while he’s hot, if you need power and RBI.

      Salazar, I’ve considered streaming him against the Stros myself, what have you got to lose?

      I’ve already been using Santana in place of a struggling Kipnis, so yes, I’ve “bought into him”. At least Danny gives decent BA, SB, R and flexibility for any mixed league roster.

      If you need power, go with Baez.

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