RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 6/20/13

Episode 28
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a trio of disappointing upper echelon starting pitchers and a pair of hitters trending in the opposite direction.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 46 min of joyous analysis.

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Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.


15 Responses to “RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 6/20/13”

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  1. Migs says:

    Thanks for talking about Greinke. I was the one who was tweeting to you about him, Eno.

    I wrote an article on him and maybe I should have put more blame on the collarbone for his issues. I just find it odd he has totally given up his slider his last 3 starts. Granted a cutter is similar, but it may put less stress on his elbow, plus it hasn’t been that effective so far for him. And I don’t really see the velocity trending upward too much just yet. And Greinke’s release point is lower this season when compared to 2009. You can compare that to Roy Halladay’s release points of 2009 and 2013.

    However, I did buy low on Greinke knowing these issues, so I agree with you there, Eno. And most of that is based on his upside and because the swinging strike% still looks good. Although he is giving up a ton of line drives.

    Like I said in the tweet to you, it is difficult to predict injury/rapid decline, but I think I would consider moving Greinke in dynasty leagues while he still has some value. Even if you are a year early on trading him, it is better than being a year late. Is a 2015 prediction for a Greinke demise not bold? Haha.

    Anyway, great podcast as usual fellas. Thanks.

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  2. motorcity42 says:

    I have Greinke, Price, Gyorko and Burnett. On top of this, I traded Alex Gordon away to Ryan Braun (prior to the news of this injury exceeding the 15-day). I am hurting. I need to just hang around and finish top 8, I am currently 15th out of 16. heh Let’sgooooooo!

    Top flight and thanks as always Eno and Mike.

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  3. dave says:

    Matt Moore was just dropped in my league. Apologize if you discussed his value in the podcast, but can you help me assess his rest of season value and if I should drop any of the players below for him:

    Cashner
    Wilhelmsen
    Wil Myers
    Rickie weeks
    Eric young (really need steals right now)
    Kyle blanks

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    • Wow! I need some more context. How many teams in your league and is it a keeper or not? The Mariners don’t have any real good alternatives so I imagine Wilhelmsen should get another shot soon. Ha, I need steals badly in my home league too and just picked up Young. I’d have to say either Young or Blanks. While he continues to start, Blanks could have some marginal value assuming you’re in a shallow league, but he’s still likely the least valuable on your list (along with Young who you probably need more).

      Of course, you’ll prob be so nervous about when to start Moore! Even tonight’s win wasn’t actually a good performance.

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      • dave says:

        12 team Roto yahoo league, redraft. That change anything? I guess what I’m wondering is whether an expert like yourself sees anything in all the data we have on Moore to date that would suggest he is a must own, hope you’re the one who claims him off waivers, point and laugh at the other guy who jumped ship way too soon, type of a pickup?

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      • dave says:

        Sorry if this gets annoying, but Castro is my only SS and Nick Franklin is available. Drop one of those guys and grab Franklin and play until Castro heats up?

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      • There are definitely warning signs with Moore. But his upside suggests you can’t let him sit on free agency. No, gotta keep running Castro out there. The whole “bench him until he heats up” philosophy is so silly, I’m amazed how many times I read such advice. It’s really terrible!

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  4. Jack Meeoff says:

    Zimmermann > Weaver

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  5. Nick Tepesch says:

    Thanks for talking Gallardo, been an issue all year. Would you treat this as an opportunity to sell him at as close to even value as possible?

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    • Wow, welcome Mr. Tepesch, glad you could take time off your busy schedule to join us here. Maybe you should be more concerned about your own pitching than Gallardo’s? :-)

      If you could get preseason value for Gallardo, then of course!

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  6. Colonel Angus says:

    Mike,

    RE: Quality Starts

    I read somewhere where the percentage of Quality Starts that are 6IP 3ER is fairly low. So if the vast majority of QS are actually of quality it makes sense as a much better metric than wins.

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    • Several years ago I looked at my own league’s quality starts since CBS allows you to check that even though it’s not a category. It almost perfectly lined up with innings pitched. So it seemed pretty stupid to me. Might as well just use innings. In fact, that would be better since relievers could get wins, the current category, while they can’t get QS. So at least it doesn’t kill a closer’s value.

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  7. Taz says:

    Re: Gallardo. You mentioned his velocity decline, but what has it been the last 3 starts? He’s had three good ones in a row.

    Two have been against the Astros and Marlins, so take that with a mountain of salt. But the middle one was against the Reds, which has a real offense.

    I heard vs. the Marlins his velocity has improved. Are there velo numbers from his past three? If his velocity is returning, he may be worth monitoring considering his hot streak.

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    • His fastball has averaged 91.1 in each of his last 3 outings. That is actually an improvement from the majority of his previous starts, but he averaged 91.7 last season, so the velocity is still down, just not as dramatically.

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  8. Scott says:

    Eno was right, the worst cat is Saves by far. One great example, Brandon League is (rightly) universally owned in our little game, Kenley Janson is not. Please Please PLEASE advocate for Shaves, saves + holds. It eliminates the shit closers and greatly enhances the best relievers. Been using it in my local league for 3 years now and no one has ever advocated to change back to saves. Wins suck but there is not an obvious better alternative available that barely augments the game itself. Love the podcast guys.

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