RotoGraphs Consensus Rankings: Shortstop

You know what? I don’t think I have to link back to the positions we’ve done before. Because David Appelman was kind of enough to revamp the RotoGraphs landing page, and now you can easily access all your draft tools — including our consensus ranks, and later our tiered positional ranks — just by scrolling your eyeballs to the right an inch-plus. Scroll those eyeballs! Enjoy one-touch draft tools! Applaud the dark overlord!

Okay, back to shortstops. Given the health and bust/regress concerns of the other shortstops in the top five, maybe it’s not surprising that we have a new number one shortstop this season. Starlin Castro won’t wow you in the speed or power stats, but he is on the right side of his peak, and he has been slowly building his skillset, so it seems that his risk of regression is low, and he should be healthy, too. It’s in interesting that we agreed by not agreeing — only one analyst had Castro first, and yet it seems fine that he is first. It’s not like we can just wipe away those lost Jose Reyes seasons.

The last few shortstops in the top twelve, even the top fifteen — those look like a decent argument for waiting on the position in mixed leagues. Why not get Josh Rutledge and Andrelton Simmons and hope one outperforms their projections b just a little bit? You’ll probably get plenty of exciting players while you’re waiting on that duo.

So maybe Castro or wait this year in most leagues?

RotoG ES JZ MP ZS Name PA AVG R HR RBI SB
1 3 2 3 1 Starlin Castro 678 0.288 82 12 71 15
2 1 1 1 7 Jose Reyes 653 0.294 94 11 61 27
3 2 5 2 2 Troy Tulowitzki 491 0.3 71 23 78 4
4 4 3 4 8 Hanley Ramirez 614 0.269 78 19 74 16
5 5 7 5 4 Ian Desmond 586 0.268 68 16 67 14
6 6 4 6 6 Elvis Andrus 698 0.279 87 6 57 19
7 8 8 7 3 Ben Zobrist 676 0.262 89 19 77 11
8 7 6 9 5 Martin Prado 642 0.294 85 13 66 8
9 9 10 8 9 Jimmy Rollins 630 0.25 81 16 58 20
10 11 9 13 11 Alcides Escobar 665 0.27 74 6 58 22
11 12 12 11 10 Asdrubal Cabrera 603 0.273 73 15 70 8
12 10 11 10 17 Josh Rutledge 556 0.279 74 15 63 14
13 13 16 12 12 Derek Jeter 562 0.288 69 8 50 7
14 15 14 17 15 Alexei Ramirez 591 0.265 61 13 61 10
15 16 17 16 13 Erick Aybar 481 0.276 55 7 48 13
16 14 13 15 20 Andrelton Simmons 554 0.258 60 7 48 16
17 17 19 14 21 Jean Segura 417 0.247 39 5 38 24
18 19 18 18 18 Danny Espinosa 562 0.234 58 17 62 11
19 18 20 24 16 J.J. Hardy 548 0.252 64 19 63 1
20 20 21 20 24 Everth Cabrera 443 0.237 44 3 32 30
21 23 24 22 23 Zack Cozart 463 0.242 44 12 50 6
22 22 23 26 22 Yunel Escobar 528 0.264 58 8 49 3
23 25 15 35 19 Hiroyuk Nakajima NA NA NA NA NA NA
24 21 25 23 25 Jhonny Peralta 484 0.259 53 13 56 1
25 27 30 30 26 Jed Lowrie 406 0.253 48 12 46 2
26 30 27 29 28 Rafael Furcal 401 0.263 48 6 34 7
27 24 32 27 32 Stephen Drew 390 0.245 42 7 39 2
28 34 22 33 29 Ruben Tejada 566 0.257 56 3 39 5
29 26 38 25 34 Maicer Izturis 254 0.263 27 3 24 7
30 32 29 36 30 Jamey Carroll 485 0.275 51 1 37 7
31 38 31 32 27 Cliff Pennington 394 0.253 37 5 37 9
32 29 26 36 38 Billy Hamilton 206 0.22 25 2 15 45
33 31 28 36 37 Jurickson Profar 345 0.232 38 6 34 11
34 37 34 31 31 Adeiny Hechavarria 397 0.235 32 5 34 6
35 33 35 36 33 Luis Cruz 346 0.249 30 6 37 2
36 28 42 28 42 Tyler Greene 225 0.238 24 6 24 7
37 39 36 36 39 Daniel Descalso 380 0.247 34 4 35 3
38 35 37 36 42 Dee Gordon 216 0.242 19 1 17 15
39 41 39 36 35 Brandon Crawford 434 0.24 38 6 40 2
40 36 41 34 40 Clint Barmes 409 0.235 35 8 38 1
41 40 42 36 41 Brendan Ryan 377 0.222 34 3 28 8

Others ranked by one analyst: Sean Rodriguez, Mike Aviles, and Eduardo Nunez.




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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


20 Responses to “RotoGraphs Consensus Rankings: Shortstop”

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  1. Scott Clarkson says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    Lost seasonS plural is a bit of a myth for Reyes.

    Yes, 2009 was a lost year w/ only 36 games played. He had 5 straight seasons of 153+ GP and 700+ PA before that year. His GP/PA totals 2010-2012: 133/603, 126/586, 160/716. Yes, he has missed 20-30 games in 2 of the last three seasons but since he’s a leadoff hitter he’ll still amass more PA than most SS. This comes out in the wash in shallow roto. The timing of his injuries has been absolutely terrible for H2H but once can’t reasonably expect that to be a trend.

    I don’t think motivation is an issue if he made it out there 160 times for the depressing 2012 Marlins….if ever there was a time to take a month off w/ a phantom hammy that was it.

    Bottom line: Reyes hit .287 w/ 11 HR and 40sb in a down babip year in 2012 and is now moving to a much more potent lineup in a more hitting-friendly division/homepark. I am buying for 2013. #7 is craziness from Mr. Sanders w/ all due respect.

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    • tylersnotes says:

      On the one hand I find myself agreeing with Zach’s rankings generally– it’s conceivable that Reyes and Hanley are at the same level as Rollins/Asdrubal this year and that their actual value is less than their perceived value based on being former first-rounders in what has traditionally been a very shallow position.

      On the other hand, I could make the same case for Ian Desmond or Elvis Andrus. It may be the difference between number 1 and number 7 just isn’t that great at SS this year, and we tend to focus on minor differences in top 10 rankings, but Zach’s ranking of Reyes clearly impacted what is now his official RotoGraphs ranking.

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    • Matt Bertelli says:

      I agree. With all due respect to Mr. Sanders he must really think Reyes is going to get injuried but he is entitled to his opinion.

      I agree that I think most people are making to big a deal about his injuries and the turf in Tor. Turf isn’t as bad as it used to be and Reyes is entering his age 30 season. Plus steamer is the most down on Reyes SB potential just so people looking at that don’t think that Reyes is on likely to only steal 27 bags. Most have him in the mid 30’s after 40 last year.

      Tulo’s injuries scare me more and make him one of the biggest gambles in fantasy baseball this year.

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    • Ender says:

      If Reyes is hitting under .300 and only stealing 40 bases it is hard for me to take him in the 2nd round since batting leadoff means fewer R+RBI than other early picks. SB are also really easy to make up later while power is harder to get in the late rounds without taking big hits in AVG/SB. I wouldn’t rank him #7 or anything but I’ll gladly pass over him to take one of the other total studs that are around where he goes.

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  2. tylersnotes says:

    i like the new design; much easier to find things in this format. Would also love to see a rotographs-specific search tool or tag cloud as well.

    As for the rankings here, I’ll again echo my desire posted in the comments of other rankings for a little more transparency in the process here. the idea that the ‘consensus ranking’ is that Castro is number 1 seems a little ridiculous considering a slight change in ranking for Tulo by Zimmerman or Reyes by Zach would alter the top 3. The way I read this, there is a clear tier of the top 4 shortstops and all carry significant risk that the drop off between top tier and the next 5-10 SS is not as extreme as other positions. In this way I think SS is a lot like C this year- not as shallow as we’re used to.

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    • tylersnotes says:

      Scutaro has SS eligibility in ESPN leagues at least. Based on his 2b ranking, I’d expect him to be somewhere between Simmons and Cozart here. Fair assessment?

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  3. Andrew Wolfe says:

    I am surprised that Josh Rutledge is so high. He was only a rookie last year, and only played at SS because Tulowitzki was on the DL.

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    • tylersnotes says:

      he still has ss eligibility, and is bringing a 2b skill set to that eligibility. It’s certainly possible Rutledge could be a bust and flame out, the consensus ranking here is actually lower than his Steamer projection. He’s a fairly popular sleeper, and I would argue for him over Andrelton Simmons or Evereth Cabrera.

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    • Ender says:

      Rutledge was just awful once the league adjusted to him, I’ll personally be passing on him where he has been going.

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  4. Stan Gable says:

    Troy Tulowitzki easily at 1 for yours truly. Anybody can get hurt & to dock somebody without present concern seems foolhardy.

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  5. Jabronies says:

    Eno, It would be cool to add the rankings based on Steamer or at least the dollar value, to see how the projections differ from rankings

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  6. Ed says:

    Where would Machado slide in if he had SS eligibility? Thanks!

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  7. dacure says:

    Very confused by some of Sanders’ rankings. Is there a common theme to some of the outrageous placements? ie Butler #3 1B Votto #8. Longoria #7 3B Headley #2. Reyes and Hanley BEHIND Elvis Andrus… is the lesson to avoid a player coming off injuries at all cost?

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    • BenFranklin17 says:

      Butler as #3 1B ahead of Votto makes me sick to my stomach. Same with Hiroyuk Nakajima over Peralta!

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    • guru juru says:

      He is really hurting Fangraphs’ impeccable credibility. I hope they consider terminating his services.

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    • jim says:

      knocking for injuries seems to be one theme, but… that’s it

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  8. Zac says:

    “So maybe Castro or wait this year in most leagues?”

    I’ll wait. Razzball-Steamer has him 8th among SS for my league, it seems to think his 678 projected PA are a little high.

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  9. Wade8813 says:

    I have no problem with Castro as possibly the #1, but it seems really weird that you would say “Castro or wait” when you list two Shortstops higher than Castro…

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