RotoGraphs Consensus Ranks: Third Base

It’s time to finish up the infield. Surprisingly perhaps only to me, third base ended up being the deepest position more years than it wasn’t in my FanGraphs+ auction strategy analysis.

There’s probably more agreement at the top of this position than most, at least more than the shortstops. Once you get past the top three or four, the agreement stops, but then you also have a scrum that looks like it could be one single tier, all the way down past twelve. This could be a position you wait on if you miss the top guys in a mixed league. But don’t wait too long in deep league. It gets dicey again in the late twenties.

It looks like I like Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, and Pablo Sandoval better than most. That sounds right.

(The projections listed are the FanGraphs-Steamer projections and are not the basis for each analyst’s rankings.)

RotoG ES JZ MP ZS Name PA AVG R HR RBI SB
1 1 1 1 1 Miguel Cabrera 672 0.32 105 35 115 3
2 2 2 2 4 David Wright 651 0.282 83 21 81 10
3 4 3 4 3 Adrian Beltre 580 0.295 78 27 94 1
4 3 6 3 7 Evan Longoria 564 0.277 80 29 88 4
5 5 5 7 2 Chase Headley 673 0.264 79 18 77 11
6 6 4 5 12 Hanley Ramirez 614 0.269 78 19 74 16
7 9 10 6 6 Ryan Zimmerman 539 0.282 69 21 74 3
8 7 8 8 10 Brett Lawrie 545 0.267 66 16 67 12
9 11 11 9 5 Aramis Ramirez 521 0.275 65 21 76 3
10 10 7 12 8 Martin Prado 642 0.294 85 13 66 8
11 8 9 10 14 Pablo Sandoval 536 0.298 71 20 79 2
12 15 13 11 9 Mark Trumbo 502 0.255 63 24 74 3
13 13 12 13 15 Kyle Seager 628 0.254 68 16 68 9
14 16 14 14 11 Will Middlebrooks 498 0.259 59 20 67 7
15 12 15 17 13 Mike Moustakas 581 0.254 66 20 74 3
16 14 16 15 16 David Freese 502 0.281 58 15 61 2
17 17 17 19 17 Michael Young 569 0.288 63 12 62 2
18 18 19 16 18 Todd Frazier 502 0.242 55 19 63 7
19 19 18 22 19 Pedro Alvarez 578 0.24 67 25 76 2
20 20 21 18 21 Manny Machado 496 0.24 54 13 54 10
21 24 23 20 22 Lonnie Chisenhall 458 0.248 50 15 55 3
22 21 20 24 26 Jeff Keppinger 532 0.28 62 10 53 2
23 22 25 21 24 Kevin Youkilis 415 0.254 51 15 51 1
24 23 22 26 30 Mark Reynolds 531 0.225 66 25 70 2
25 27 27 27 23 Trevor Plouffe 430 0.235 47 17 53 2
26 26 26 31 31 Jordan Pacheco 323 0.275 32 5 34 3
27 30 29 30 25 Alberto Callaspo 383 0.265 41 7 39 3
28 25 24 38 39 Jedd Gyorko 391 0.269 42 13 59 4
29 29 28 38 32 Jamey Carroll 485 0.275 51 1 37 7
30 32 32 34 29 Josh Donaldson 388 0.242 43 13 45 6
31 33 34 29 38 Brett Wallace 370 0.253 41 12 44 1
32 34 42 23 35 Maicer Izturis 254 0.263 27 3 24 7
33 37 38 28 33 Adeiny Hechavarria 397 0.235 32 5 34 6
34 31 30 38 41 Chris Johnson 342 0.259 35 9 40 2
35 28 31 32 51 Chris Nelson 304 0.274 33 8 37 2
36 36 45 35 27 Matt Dominguez 339 0.242 35 9 36 1
37 42 36 37 28 Donovan Solano 411 0.248 34 3 34 5
38 39 35 38 40 Steve Lombardozzi 298 0.252 27 4 27 6
39 42 39 38 34 Luis Cruz 346 0.249 30 6 37 2
40 40 40 38 37 Juan Francisco 277 0.249 29 11 36 1
41 35 33 38 51 Matt Carpenter 317 0.259 33 5 33 2
42 42 37 38 45 Placido Polanco 384 0.268 37 3 31 2
43 42 41 38 47 Daniel Descalso 380 0.247 34 4 35 3
44 38 48 38 49 Ian Stewart 328 0.235 36 12 40 2
45 42 51 36 44 Alex Rodriguez 187 0.259 23 7 24 2
46 41 51 38 46 Mike Olt 170 0.231 19 6 20 2
47 42 49 38 48 Ryan Roberts 286 0.236 30 7 29 5

Others ranked by one analyst: Wilson Betemit, DJ LeMahieu, Eduardo Nunez, Ryan Wheeler, Jerry Hairston, Sean Rodriguez and Greg Dobbs.




Print This Post

Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


23 Responses to “RotoGraphs Consensus Ranks: Third Base”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. SKob says:

    After this one and SS from earlier, I’m finding Mr. ZS to be highly unreliable! A breakout season makes Headley #2, and Hanley is outside the top 10… behind Middlebrooks… ummm, ok!

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. ballboy2012 says:

    Seriously, Zach Sanders has some bizarre rankings. He also does not follow his own rankings. In the mock draft, he takes Longoria in the 2nd round, as the 4th 3B taken. Headley, Ramirez, and Zimmerman were all available when he chose his 7th ranked 3B. Why would you go against your own rankings in a draft?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Jon says:

    Id like to see mr zs projections to back up some of these rankings…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. JaysFan says:

    Really like these rankings, although I have Hanley a bit higher. 16 steals seems a bit low, considering his career low was 20 when he only had 385 PA’s

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. ManwichMan says:

    I can’t wait to see what wildcards sanders will throw into the outfield rankings.

    Will there be an overall top 100 or 200 after the positions are done?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. jim says:

    headley as the #2? are you guys sure sanders was taking this completely seriously?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Eno Sarris says:

      The xHR/FB work on this site suggests that Headley will outperform his Steamer-projected HR/FB next year based on his batted ball gains in 2012. If you add just four or five home runs to his total, give him a stolen base more than his Steamer projection, and project David Wright — thirty-year-old David Wright — to regress, why is it so crazy to put Headley ahead of Wright? He believes, you don’t. And Sanders’ rating drove Headley’s consensus ranking all the way up from … six to five.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • jim says:

        it’s about him being ahead of beltre AND wright AND longoria AND zimmerman AND…. sure, dig deep enough into his batted ball stuff and it looks more legitimate, and yes, the PETCO fences are coming in. now, it isn’t shown the margin by which sanders has headley ahead of everybody else, maybe there’s a big cluster and he’s just barely ahead. the way these rankings appear don’t really show that, though.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • David says:

      I’m not saying that I agree with Zach’s rankings, but if he had ranked last years class as Headley, Beltre, Wright, Aramis Ramirez… you would have said he was crazy, right? wouldn’t have made him any less wrong. Just because you disagree with his rankings doesn’t necessarily make them wrong, and even if you feel they do, just take them out and recalculate the consensus rankings. I do have to say however, I would like to see something by Zach sometime in the near future explaining some of these, or showing his numbers, I certainly dont find some individual disparities odd, but crediting the same attributes would still, for instance, put Longo or Beltre ahead of Headley, ahead of Wright… right?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. deezy333 says:

    Eno, would you rather take a 3B early and a 2B late or vice versa? For example would you rather have Longoria/Phillips or Pedroia/Headley? In early mocks I was targeting a 3B early but I’m starting to think the depth and talent still available in the 7th/8th round such as Headley/Sandoval Lowrie could allow me to target a Pedroia or Kinsler early while still getting a good 3B later.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. David says:

    In all of my leagues I’m waiting on 3B and so far I’ve been able to snag Pablo Sandoval in rounds 10&11. A lot of the 3B going ahead of him have question marks (health or one year wonder). I’m expecting 290-300, 80-90 runs-rbi, 20-25 hr with potential for more. Good value in my opinion

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. daveabbruz says:

    Even more damning than his top of the chart rankings is Zach listing Matt Dominguez at 27 and Solano at 28 and not ranking Matt Carpenter or Chris Nelson. I get we all have different opinions and that it’s good to have many viewpoints, but I’m not sure someone who has Descalso and those aforementioned stiffs ranked higher than Carpenter or Nelson should be taken seriously.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Eno says:

      Surprised those players are your bellwether players. Carpenter could easily not make it as a second baseman, and Nelson is on a crowded infield with a hot prospect behind him. Zach is betting that Descalso starts at second or short, and that Solano is needed all year in a terrible Miami infield. Nothing people have brought up seems crazy to me, most is based on different ideas of plate appearances, and these examples certainly don’t bother me.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. seriously? says:

    C’mon Eno…it’s getting a little sad at this point to watch you defend those terrible ZS rankings. No logical person would draft Hanley Ramirez (pre-injury, mind you) after WILL MIDDLEBROOKS. At best, this is just his attempt to be different for the sake of drawing attention. At worst, his rankings will sway those who follow fangraphs for expert analysis. It’s obviously bringing down the credibility of these rankings and the site in general. Rankings are extremely important to a website and ZS is throwing Fangraphs under the bus. Don’t give me the “they don’t affect overall rankings that much”…that’s a terrible excuse.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current ye@r *