Rotographs June Consensus Ranks: Second Base

The key word for second base is: close. When it comes to the top three, apparently the rest-of-season projections have changed the order daily over the past three days. Jeff Zimmerman had to call it, at some point, and it was Jose Altuve by the slimmest of margins.

For me, the closest rankings came later.

If you add stolen bases to homers (they have similar value, actually), you could say that basically between the eleventh- and fifteenth-ranked second basemen, you’ve got a bunch of players that are projected to hit around .260 with 18 or so homers plus stolen bases. Not quite catcher-dom, but close.

Of course there are some guys beyond that ranking that have the upside to join. I like Anthony Rendon, Jed Lowrie and Rougned Odor a little more than most. Jeff likes DJ LeMahieu‘s batting average skills. Zach maybe thinks that Kolten Wong will steal some bases. Mike likes Omar Infante — you’ll have to let him say why. This position doesn’t *quite* dry up after the top 15, so that counts as good news.

Again, this is for 5×5 roto, and though Jeff Zimmerman mostly uses the rest of season projections, it’s not just a computer ranking. We’ve left off the color coding in favor of a simple up or down arrow — those arrows are only next to big movers. The table is designed to be sortable in case you prefer one of the rankings.

RG Player Jeff Zach Mike Eno
1 Robinson Cano 3 1 2 2
2 Jose Altuve 1 2 4 3
3 Jason Kipnis 5 3 1 1
4 Ian Kinsler 2 4 5 4
5 Dustin Pedroia 4 6 3 5
6 Daniel Murphy 6 5 7 7
7 Brian Dozier 7 7 16 6
8 Howie Kendrick 8 8 17 10
9 Brett Lawrie 9 16 12 8
10 Dee Gordon 13 13 11 9
11 Martin Prado 10 17 8 16
12 Brandon Phillips 11 12 13 15
13 Chase Utley 12 10 15 13
14 Aaron Hill 14 14 10 12
15 Neil Walker 16 9 14 11
16 Matt Carpenter 21 11 9 18
17 Anthony Rendon 22 15 20 14
18 Ben Zobrist 20 21 6 17
19 Emilio Bonifacio 18 18 22 19
20 Jedd Gyorko 19 20 21 22
21 Jed Lowrie 25 22 19 20
22 Kolten Wong 28 19 23 24
23 Omar Infante 27 23 18 29
24 Brad Miller 15 40 24 21
25 DJ LeMahieu 17 27 30 26
26 Rougned Odor 33 25 25 23
27 Dustin Ackley 23 32 29 27
28 Scooter Gennett 29 29 26 30
29 Kelly Johnson 26 40 28 28
30 Derek Dietrich 40 26 32 25
31 Gordon Beckham 40 24 31 33
32 Jonathan Schoop 32 40 27 31
33 Mike Aviles 30 28 40 35
34 Marcus Semien 24 40 37 39
35 Luis Valbuena 35 30 40 36
36 Nick Franklin 31 40 35 40
37 Alberto Callaspo 36 40 39 32
38 Mookie Betts 40 33 40 34
39 Jordy Mercer 40 40 33 34
40 Rickie Weeks 40 31 40 37
41 Josh Rutledge 34 40 38 40
42 Brian Roberts 40 34 40 38

Ranked by one analyst: Dan Uggla, Logan Forsythe, Ryan Flaherty and Steve Lombardozzi.




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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


37 Responses to “Rotographs June Consensus Ranks: Second Base”

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  1. steve says:

    Uggla got a ranking, but not LaStella?

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      Gathering them now, he didn’t make the games played at position cut just because he hasn’t played enough. My bad.

      I’d put him around 26, Zach says 32.

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  2. Mike Harber says:

    such little respect for Mr. Walker

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I just don’t get the love. He is basically the same home run hitter as in the past.

      He is making a bit for contact. But his FB% is the same, His batted ball distance is the game, he is pulling flyballs the same. In recnet seasons, he puts together a couple of hot months to get his double digit home.

      2014 (Apr May): 10 HRs
      2013 (Aug-Oct): 9 HRs
      2012 (Jul-Aug): 10 HRs

      I see no reason to move up an aged 2B above his pre-season mid teen ranking.

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  3. Stanley says:

    I need the ranking for LaStella! LaStella!!!

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  4. Is Dozier says:

    really that different from Jason Kipnis? Kipnis’ .284 batting avg last year was aided by a .345 BABIP, mostly swooned for the second half of the season, and has definitely been ‘off’ since coming off the DL (could turn around in an instant of course). Only knocks on Dozier are that his HR/FB will obviously come down a bit (has already started), and the low batting average, but his on base skills and generally more selective approach seem very real as he has now been doing ‘this’ for essentially the last year. SBs should be somewhat even, maybe a nod to Kipnis, but Dozier is keeping pace, especially with his on base skills, and Dozier also looks like a very good bet to beat Kipnis in runs and HRs. Dozier’s ISO even last year was essentially the same (.002 points higher). At this point he seems to be more valuable than Pedroia for counting stats alone, and likely Kinsler as well.

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    • PBMax says:

      Good post, I’ve been thinking the same thing. Thanks for backing it up.

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    • James says:

      Kipnis gets credit for doing it longer, and slightly better, than Dozier. A year from now maybe they’re both top 3.

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      • OP says:

        most HRs Kipnis ever hit in a season is 17. Dozier is on pace to destroy that. Kipnis’ SBs were always a bit of a surprise (but seem ‘real’ now), Dozier is stealing at an awfully similar rate while also adding about 20-30% higher power #’s. IMO outlook for both is a lot closer than it’s being made out to be.

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  5. Andrew says:

    I have Altuve, Kipnis and Rendon and obviously not enough starting space for all 3. who would you recommend trading of the 3 and what sort of SP should I target in a trade?

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    • atoms says:

      I’d trade Kipnis, as his name value will probably fetch the best return.

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    • Sgt. Hulka says:

      Depends on what you can get for them. Sorry if that’s the obvious answer. I’m guessing you can get the most for Kipnis, but I think you might be able to get the most over RoS value for Rendon. Just my two cents.

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  6. Matt says:

    I’m glad I have Chase Utley.

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  7. Adam says:

    Whoa, did Ben Zobrist die or something?

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  8. Josh B says:

    Lame. Neil Walker is currently second in wOBA and will be second in wOBA at the end of the season. What more do you want?

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    • jcxy says:

      I think it speaks to the depth of 2b. Anyone in between Lawrie (9th) and Carpenter (16th) is pretty interchangeable.

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  9. Double J says:

    50. Danny Espinosa
    150. Darwin Barney

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  10. Jeff says:

    Great stuff, as always. I love that the rankings this time are so mixed up.

    Can you guys explain the discrepancy in Zobrist’s ranking? And why the love for Lawrie if no SB and the pop-up problems remain?

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      Age is a really big factor here. With Zobrist getting caught and on a three-year decline in power, and at his age, I’ll bet on the youngster showing power with some kinks in his game.

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  11. Thufir says:

    Chase Utley deserves better, at least for this year…

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  12. CabreraDeath says:

    Neil Walker being a consensus #15 is laughable. Obviously, we must not be actually looking at results/peripherals. Dee Gordon ahead of him? Brandon Phillips? Hilarious.

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      I liked him a little better than consensus, but he’s post-peak for power and so power regression is to be expected. He’s not really an asset in batting average and won’t steal any bases. He’s projected to hit 15 homers plus steals with a .270 average and that’s not a great argument for being much higher than around tenth. The fact that he’s hit 11 homers to date has very little to do with his rest of season power projection, particularly when his career high to date is 16.

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      • srpst23 says:

        So with about 2/3 of the season to go his pre-season projections would have him hitting 10 more HR this season. You can’t take away the 11 he’s already hit so that projects to 21. Am i missing something? Shouldn’t a 2B on pace to hit 20+ HR with a 0.270 Avg (which is actually above average now) be ranked a bit higher than 15? I know that you ranked him higher so I’m interested in why the hate from the rest of the panel. Prado is also beyond his power peak, hitting a completely empty .270 and ranked as the consensus #11.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        It’s a rest-of-season ranking, so the fact that he will hit 20 is less relevant than hitting ten more. Prado ‘should’ manage close to that, and ‘should’ hit for better BA, at least according to projections.

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      • srpst23 says:

        Thanks for the reply. I understand that it’s fairly difficult to make a significant change to the ROS projections because they are so heavily regressed, but what I think is odd is the scenario where Walker and Prado do perform from here out to their current ROS projections. With Walker hitting 20ish HR with a .265-.270 avg and Prado hitting 10ish HR with a .270-.275 avg. Now for next year wouldn’t the overall better season from Walker weigh fairly heavily on the 2015 pre-season projections? This would likely project him to be a better 2B option than Prado for 2015, yet a worse option for the 2014 ROS.

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  13. pauly says:

    Aaron Hill, you bum!

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  14. Brian says:

    Surprisingly bad rankings given the overall high quality of the site.

    I agree with the commenters that Walker is too low. Lawrie is too high. Dozier and Kipnis are essentially equal, but this is not the only site to overvalue Kipnis (all sites have).

    Gordon has got to be good for 50 HR+SB the rest of the way, which by your own definition means he must be ranked too low.

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  15. Ruki Motomiya says:

    I’d be extremely interested in hearing the rankers opinions on why Dee Gordon is below Brett Lawrie and Howie Kendrick, though Mike avoided that (How Prado is above him, though…). The only possible reason I can think of is Gordon losing the job? Thought 3/4ths of a Dee Gordon year @ .250 AVG or so is worth more than Kendrick or Lawrie, probably.

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  16. Matt says:

    I do not understand at all how HR and SB are similar value. Maybe on the face they are but HRs fill other categories (R, RBI, TB, SLG) SB don’t fill and except increase the odds of a run by a percentage.

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    • srpst23 says:

      But SB are more rare than HR lately. TB and SLG aren’t really standard Roto catagories either, and while SB and R aren’t directly correlatable, they generally go hand in hand.

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      TB and SLG are not standard roto categories, so they don’t matter for talking about said standard roto categories. HRs addition to runs is very slim and is usually made up for by the people who hit large amounts of HRs will be in poor positions for many runs. It is also becoming hard to find SB…and I would personally argue even if a HR is worth more than a SB, it isn’t by too absurd an amount. (IE 20 of Lawrie’s HRs is not worth more than Gordon’s 60-70 SB)

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  17. Walkswith4balls says:

    I’m no numbers guru, but having Prado (who’s done virtually nothing to this point) and Phillips above Utley and Rendon doesn’t make much sense. I guess you can say the former’s age and knee are causes for concern, the latter’s numbers and upside far exceed the above two.

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  18. Walkswith4balls says:

    Flipped Choo for Kipnis. Good trade for me, correct?

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  19. aj says:

    Altuve or Cano in a keeper league?

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  20. CasperX22 says:

    Depends on the format, but in most formats I’d say Altuve because he is younger and likely a lot cheaper.

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