RotoGraphs Mock Draft Rds. 1-10 — Early Catcher ADP Results

With Eno releasing the results of Rounds 6 through 10 of the RotoGraphs Early Mock Draft (you can find the first five rounds here), now is as good a time as any to take a look at some Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers for backstops and see where you can expect certain players to go in the first part of your draft. We’re not splitting the atom here. We’re just taking a look at a few early results — something we’re going to do from time to time here throughout the offseason. The results we’re looking at today come from an incredibly small sample size in comparison to the amount of draft data we’ll have even just a month from now, but it’s good to start keeping track now so that you can follow the upcoming trends and stay fully prepared for when you actually start drafting your teams this year.

In the RotoGraphs mock draft, through the first 10 rounds, we’ve seen eight catchers come off the board. The table below shows the order in which those eight have been drafted by us along with what their ADP is, as of right now, on Mock Draft Central and in NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) play. I prefer to use MDC, because they’re part of the RotoWire family and I tend to like their rankings more than the others, most of the time. And the NFBC, well, those that are participating in that are obviously putting a substantial amount of money towards it and so you’d like to think that they’re fairly well-educated in the ways of the game.

ADP
RG MDC NFBC
Buster Posey 12 12.23 12.25
Joe Mauer 24 53.17 56.08
Yadier Molina 35 34.90 73.67
Carlos Santana 75 81.73 62.67
Matt Wieters 78 79.10 82.42
Miguel Montero 95 74.40 97.67
Wilin Rosario 104 107.45 78.92
Victor Martinez 114 124.53 80.00

Obviously though, there are a few caveats you need to understand. ADP results, right now, on sites like Mock Draft Central, as well as Yahoo and ESPN, are a bit sketchy this early. It’s not that the people playing around in those early mocks aren’t serious about how they are drafting, but in a lot of cases, they’re simply checking in on the first few rounds and then allowing the auto-pick to go the rest of the way. The auto-pick is simply pulling off of that site’s specific rankings, and as we can all agree, there are many varying opinions about each site’s player rankings and not all of them are good. Thus, the ADP data is obviously skewed towards how those that set up the site feel about specific players. For example, in the past, I’ve noticed how ESPN tends to favor a lot of starting pitching and thus you’re going to have ADP results that skew towards the starters as they are quickly auto-picked once someone leaves the draft room. In addition to that, you also have people that are playing around with different strategies and are taking players earlier than they would normally take them, just to see how other in the draft room react with their own picks.

You also have to realize that the data compiled on MDC is also a combination of both one and two catcher leagues. There’s no way to separate the two and so some of the numbers, particularly in the top 10 at the position, might be a bit higher than they really should be as catchers in one-catcher leagues are usually taken earlier due to the lack of quality depth at the position. As you get closer to March, that obviously starts to level off more with the increase in data available. The NFBC format is two-catcher, so keep that in mind. And when we here at RotoGraphs began this particular mock, we opted to go with a one-catcher format.

With that now established, we can start looking at some of the trends here in our draft and as you can see, other than Posey being everyone’s number one guy, there are quite a few differences. We’ve already established that Mauer was a definite reach in our league and even Mike Petriello, who grabbed him on the turn at the end of the second round, admits to the reach. Molina seems to be favored as the third best option although those in the NFBC lean towards Santana. Everyone seems to be viewing Wieters similarly this year while Montero, whom I really like as a steady option, doesn’t get much love from the RotoGraphs family.

Meanwhile, Rosario, whom I took in the ninth round, is getting plenty of attention in the NFBC. I can’t say I’m too happy about that as he is certainly one of my main targets behind the plate this year and, as we’ll see over the next two months, is going to start climbing up the ADP ranks fast with that kind of endorsement. My concern is that he rises too much and people start to reach for him (who doesn’t love a power-hitting backstop who plays half his games at Coors Field?), thus hurting his overall return value.

As for V-Mart, his ADP should be interesting to watch as his position eligibility might vary from league to league. While most leagues should have him listed as a catcher, there are certainly going to be some that may only allow him DH-eligibility. That would certainly drag his ADP numbers down a bit.

So again, this just just an initial look. A cursory glance, if you will. We’ll keep adding to the list as more rounds of our draft are revealed and then we’ll start look at the growing trends the closer we  get to March. For now, take what data you’ve been given and file it away. It will definitely prove useful as we move along.

 




Print This Post

Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com


23 Responses to “RotoGraphs Mock Draft Rds. 1-10 — Early Catcher ADP Results”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. PillsburyFlowboy says:

    I play ottoneu, where vmart only has dh eligibility. From what i understand, its very unlikely he spends much time (if any) behind the dish ever again. Do you think he’ll be a full-time dh this year, or does he have a chance to regain 1B eligibility by occasionally spelling fielder?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Howard Bender says:

      I definitely think there’s a chance he regains 1B eligibility, especially in ottoneu as he only needs to start 5 games at the position (or play in 10) in order to qualify. Losing catcher eligibility though is a huge bummer for his overall value and is certainly going to drop him in drafts.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Atari says:

        That might be risky. Fielder HATES being taken off the field. Look at his games played the last 4 seasons: 162, 161, 162, 162. He even resists the “DH day off.” I think he only did it 3 times last year. It is supposed to be up to Leyland, but I know if it is up to Fielder he won’t be taking days off the field.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Nelson Santovenia says:

    Anyone taking Yadier in the 3rd round is out of their mind, or a huuuuge cards homer

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. MustBunique says:

    Can anyone access NFBC ADPs?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • johnnycuff says:

      pretty sure you need to be in an NFBC league to see them right now. i think MDC had them published on their site at one point last year.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Howard Bender says:

      No, you must be in one of their leagues to get their ADP data. But I will be doing a series of ADP trend articles on MDC beginning next week and will be using the NFBC data regularly, so a fair amount of it will be available for your viewing pleasure.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Dave says:

      I know RotoSaurus had it on their site last year – http://www.therotosaurus.com/drafts/average-draft-position/
      looks like it’s still last year’s data though as NFBC doesn’t have ADP info out yet. I play NFBC so I can tell you I do not have that info yet either, but when they get it it’ll likely go on RotoSaurus

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. jdbolick says:

    No love for Salvador Perez?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • geo says:

      Yeah, if Rosario was a top target, go for Perez instead. You’ll be thaking me later when Perez outperforms him.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Howard Bender says:

        I definitely think Perez will outperform Rosario when it comes to batting average and probably OBP, but I think Rosario is the one to own if it’s power you seek. As strong an ISO as Perez had during his half-year last season, I don’t necessarily think that’s the real him. I see it regressing a bit this year. He’s totally kick-ass everywhere else though and while it’s probably a bit unrealistic, I am certainly going to try and get them both in my two-catcher auction league provided the price tags don;t get too high.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Howard Bender says:

      I have plenty of love for Salvador Perez but you’ll have to wait until Eno releases the next five rounds before we start talking about him and his ADP. Patience, grasshopper.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Atari says:

        Yeah, I will wait on catcher but I am targeting Salvador Perez in my drafts.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Patrick says:

        I have Mauer in a 7×7 league at $9, I’m debating in my head to let him go, and waiton some of these young studs??? We can keep five guys, so do I wait on new talent to really hit stride or take the risk with DL boy with a .303 avg??? Thanks everyone,
        Polka

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Howard Bender says:

        Assuming OBP is one of the extra categories in your 7×7, Mauer probably holds a real nice value in spite of the risk. However, a lot depends on who else you’re protecting or…if you keep Mauer, who you won’t be protecting. Who else ya got?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. DrBGiantsfan says:

    I like these lists of one position because it helps me figure out if I can afford to wait until the end of the draft to fill the position. In this case, it’s looking good. Perez, obviously, came to mind. Also, don’t my favorite sleeper from last year, Ryan Doumit. I guess Mike Napoli may have some health concerns, but he still has catcher eligibility too.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Will H. says:

    One of my keeper leagues (including teams managed by Jeff from here at FG and Brad at THT) makes keepers cheap compared to many systems (just two rounds lower than the previous year’s draft) and that makes the C spot a quandary for me, because you can also only keep four. At catcher, I have both Perez in the 20th and Posey in the 5th rounds. My two locks are Harper (14th round) and Strasburg (13th) but I also have Dickey (20th round keeper), J. Zimm (15th) and Kershaw (1st) in a points system that really values ELITE starting pitching more than typical 5×5 systems (it is based on linear weights) and is really shallow offense-wise (only one active spot per position, including DH and so also has only on C spot). I really like the surer value of Posey in a single-C league and Kershaw in a system that rewards elite SP, but am now considering keeping those 20th rounders over Kershaw and Posey (Perez and Dickey) and JZ, with the idea of then immediately trading them.

    Bottom line: would you draft the surest bets here, or draft those most likely to parlay, via trade, the most worth?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>