RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 11-15

We gave you rounds one through five, then rounds six through ten, and now it’s time to start the double digits of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft up for real.

I use these rounds, in my typical draft, to get relievers and starting pitchers, with a position player that dropped too far mixed in here and there. It’s not useful to make a decree about what these round should mean — every draft is different — but I generally find that the positions with the most quantity (starting pitchers and outfielders) provide the best opportunity for top-half production for bottom-half prices in these rounds.

And, since every draft is different, you’ll see that in this particular iteration, I ended up with only one starter (allbeit one I loved) and picked mostly position players. Maybe it was an over-reaction — I picked Neil Walker because the bottom half at second base is just terrible, and Jesus Montero because I like his quantity if not his quality just yet, and I also didn’t want a bottom-three catcher, and I picked Shane Victorino because I wanted speed with some power in the outfield — but it was a reaction to the way the draft was going either way.

Surely you’ll love and hate some of these picks. Enjoy.

# Round.Pick Manager Player
121 11.1 Petriello Jonathan Papelbon
122 11.2 Swydan Josh Willingham
123 11.3 Cwik James Shields
124 11.4 Wiers Jon Lester
125 11.5 Harrison Tim Lincecum
126 11.6 Zarzycki Alex Rios
127 11.7 Jeff Zim Ian Kennedy
128 11.8 Bender Greg Holland
129 11.9 Sanders Angel Pagan
130 11.10 Sarris Shane Victorino
131 11.11 Wade Josh Reddick
132 11.12 Jackie Peanuts Matt Harrison
133 12.1 Jackie Peanuts Brandon Morrow
134 12.2 Wade Dan Hudson
135 12.3 Sarris Neil Walker
136 12.4 Sanders Mike Napoli
137 12.5 Bender Carlos Gomez
138 12.6 J Zim Matt Garza
139 12.7 Zarzycki Brett Anderson
140 12.8 Harrison Josh Johnson
141 12.9 Wiers David Freese
142 12.10 Cwik Anibal Sanchez
143 12.11 Swydan Sergio Romo
144 12.12 Petriello J.J. Putz
145 13.1 Petriello Dan Uggla
146 13.2 Swydan Rafael Betancourt
147 13.3 Cwik Nick Swisher
148 13.4 Wiers Lance Lynn
149 13.5 Harrison Addison Reed
150 13.6 Zarzycki Hunter Pence
151 13.7 Jeff Zim Edwin Jackson
152 13.8 Bender Eric Hosmer
153 13.9 Sanders A.J. Burnett
154 13.10 Sarris Joel Hanrahan
155 13.11 Wade Huston Street
156 13.12 Jackie Peanuts Drew Storen
157 14.1 Jackie Peanuts Mariano Rivera
158 14.2 Wade Nelson Cruz
159 14.3 Sarris Matt Harvey
160 14.4 Sanders Doug Fister
161 14.5 Bender Jim Johnson
162 14.6 J Zim Salvador Perez
163 14.7 Zarzycki Carl Crawford
164 14.8 Harrison Brian McCann
165 14.9 Wiers Marco Scutaro
166 14.10 Cwik Ryan Madson
167 14.11 Swydan Howie Kendrick
168 14.12 Petriello Chris Davis
169 15.1 Petriello C.J. Wilson
170 15.2 Swydan Dexter Fowler
171 15.3 Cwik Stephen Drew
172 15.4 Wiers Norichika Aoki
173 15.5 Harrison Chris Perez
174 15.6 Zarzycki Mike Minor
175 15.7 Jeff Zim Homer Bailey
176 15.8 Bender Jeremy Hellickson
177 15.9 Sanders Ben Revere
178 15.10 Sarris Jesus Montero
179 15.11 Wade Erick Aybar
180 15.12 Jackie Peanuts Brett Gardner

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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.

17 Responses to “RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 11-15”

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  1. John says:

    Brett Gardner at pick 180 might be the steal of the draft. He had 96 SB between 2010-2011 before his 2012 campaign was almost a complete zero. I am hoping people overlook him this much in my upcoming drafts.

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  2. DrBGiantsfan says:

    My favorites:

    1. Homer Bailey at pick #175. He was a beast at the end of last season.

    2. Salvador Perez at pick #162. Should be a top 5 catcher over the course of a full season.

    3. Matt Harvey at pick #159. Looking for a breakout season.

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  3. hobbes020 says:

    Like the value especially of:

    #125 – T.Lincecum
    #126 – A.Rios
    #145 – D.Uggla
    #169 – C.Wilson

    Snagging guys who had down years, or general questions surrounding them, but with huge upside is a great way to get ahead. And at this point in the draft, you wont get completely murdered if they dont work out.

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    • Stan G says:

      Concur with all 4 of these & especially the bookend pitchers.

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    • Cliff says:

      Yeah, but they could also all be guys that are just on the down side of their careers. Might they have better seasons then they did last year?…quite possible…but i also think its unlikely that they will have seasons like they did during their best years.

      Lincecum–huge jump in HR/9 and LD% are very concerning to me, but neither are nearly as big of an issue as his nearly 2.0 mph drop in fastball velocity. there were always those that said his body would struggle to hold up over his whole career, and the fact that he struggled for basically the entire season doesnt make me anxious to draft him…ill take my chances with a guy like Brandon Morrow, who might end up not being AS good as he was last year, but COULD be an elite top 10-15 SP.

      Rios–seriously, its an odd year…not a chance hes NOT a bust. betwen him and Josh Beckett, they trade off good years.

      Uggla–his K% went up a full 3.5 points last year, and while his walk rate went up as well, his ISO was a whopping 52 points lower than his career average. his contact % was way down last year, and furthermore, his Z-Contact% went down 4.0 points, which seems to be a pretty significant drop…oh and his IFFB% has gone from 6.8% in 2010, to 11.9% in 2011, and finally, 16.9% in 2012. thats actually ridiculous. that means he’s basically hitting an infield pop-up once every game…and also indicates to me that he’s pressing at the plate(which contradicts the higher BB/9 though) and/or swinging for the fences…either way…im avoiding at all costs too. id prolly rather have Kendrick, and pray he gets slotted into the 2-hole ahead of Hamilton, Pujols, and Trumbo.

      Wilson–quite frankly, the guy just always outperformed his peripherals and was seemingly getting lucky for almost 2.5 years…i think his luck just ran out to some extent. still a great SP in the league, but not a dominant ace by any means. i would prolly draft him here, but i wouldnt call him a steal given that guys like FIster and Harvey were taken right before him.

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  4. SKob says:

    Total homer comment, but Lester at #124 is pretty good. Offense is still solid, Farrell is already fixing his mechanics… love him in the mid-rounds!

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  5. Matt says:

    Ben Revere at 177 seems like very nice value. I suspect he’ll end up close to 100 on the year end player rankings, so for me that’s a player to target as undervalued.

    Dan Hudson at 134 is a brutal pick for my money. The guy is hurt, and Brett Anderson and Josh Johnson went a few picks later. I like Wade’s other choices, but this one I could not figure out.

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    • geo says:

      Agree on Hudson. He’s not even going to be available to the D’Backs until July at the earliest. Besides Johnson and Anderson, other pitchers who went later include Fister, Bailey, Hellickson, all of whom should blow Hudson away in value. What was he thinking?

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    • Matty D says:

      What surprises me the most in regards to Revere’s projections is a lack of Runs. In my mind, the only way he cracks the top 100 is with Runs. I would imagine you’re getting a .290-.305 BA (I have him at .295 personally) and 35-45 steals with minimal to no help in HR and RBI. I currently have him at only 70 runs but I may earmark that as a floor rather than a true projection.

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  6. Justin Klein says:

    alex rios at 126?!? yes please.

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  7. Nick says:

    Anyone else surprised that Nick Markakis (.359 wOBA) hasn’t come off the board yet? I know he was injured to end the year but he’s played at least 157 games in the each of the previous 5 seasons. The power was back last year (13 HR in only 471 PA) after the abdominal surgery and he’s always provided a decent average.

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  8. Steve says:

    Really no Anthony Rizzo yet??

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