RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 16-23

Here are the first five rounds, here are another five rounds, here are the last five rounds, and now here are the final rounds of the draft. It took us six weeks, across the holidays, to do this draft. Slow drafts suck. Your RotoGraphs writers are dedicated men.

But the final rounds are my favorite. You’ll never find me groaning about them — the cost is so low here that you can finally take shots on random guys you like, and those guys are always the most fun.

I mean, how can you dislike rounds that include Jon Niese, Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Seager, Josh Rutledge, Jason Kubel, Lance Berkman, Mike Fiers, Alejandro De Aza, Billy Hamilton, Shelby Miller and Wil Myers? They’re all so interesting!

181 16.1 Jackie Peanuts Josh Beckett
182 16.2 Wade Jon Niese
183 16.3 Sarris Wil Myers
184 16.4 Sanders Ryan Dempster
185 16.5 Bender Dayan Viciedo
186 16.6 J Zim Hiroki Kuroda
187 16.7 Zarzycki Pedro Alvarez
188 16.8 Harrison Wade Miley
189 16.9 Wiers Jedd Gyorko
190 16.10 Cwik Trevor Cahill
191 16.11 Swydan Grant Balfour
192 16.12 Petriello Todd Frazier
193 17.1 Petriello Alfonso Soriano
194 17.2 Swydan Will Middlebrooks
195 17.3 Cwik Ryan Vogelsong
196 17.4 Wiers Hisashi Iwakuma
197 17.5 Harrison Alejandro de Aza
198 17.6 Zarzycki Anthony Rizzo
199 17.7 Jeff Zim Trevor Plouffe
200 17.8 Bender Kyle Seager
201 17.9 Sanders Tommy Hanson
202 17.10 Sarris Starling Marte
203 17.11 Wade Scott Baker
204 17.12 Jackie Peanuts Tom Wilhelmsen
205 18.1 Jackie Peanuts Cameron Maybin
206 18.2 Wade Glen Perkins
207 18.3 Sarris Trevor Bauer
208 18.4 Sanders Jayson Werth
209 18.5 Bender Josh Rutledge
210 18.6 J Zim Torii Hunter
211 18.7 Zarzycki Jason Grilli
212 18.8 Harrison Emilio Bonifacio
213 18.9 Wiers Brandon League
214 18.10 Cwik Sergio Santos
215 18.11 Swydan Marco Estrada
216 18.12 Petriello Kenley Jansen
217 19.1 Petriello Kyle Lohse
218 19.2 Swydan Justin Ruggiano
219 19.3 Cwik Derek Holland
220 19.4 Wiers Alex Avila
221 19.5 Harrison Brandon Beachy
222 19.6 Zarzycki Casey Janssen
223 19.7 Jeff Zim Joe Blanton
224 19.8 Bender Steve Cishek
225 19.9 Sanders Jonathan Broxton
226 19.10 Sarris Casey Kelly
227 19.11 Wade Chris Carpenter
228 19.12 Jackie Peanuts Alexi Ogando
229 20.1 Jackie Peanuts Al Albuquerque
230 20.2 Wade Mark Reynolds
231 20.3 Sarris Jean Segura
232 20.4 Sanders Chris Archer
233 20.5 Bender Carlos Pena
234 20.6 J Zim Vinnie Pestano
235 20.7 Zarzycki Jaime Garcia
236 20.8 Harrison Brandon McCarthy
237 20.9 Wiers Ernesto Frieri
238 20.10 Cwik John Axford
239 20.11 Swydan John Jaso
240 20.12 Petriello Jason Kubel
241 21.1 Petriello Adam LaRoche
242 21.2 Swydan Daniel Murphy
243 21.3 Cwik Denard Span
244 21.4 Wiers David Robertson
245 21.5 Harrison Rafael Soriano
246 21.6 Zarzycki Jed Lowrie
247 21.7 Jeff Zim Kelvim Herrera
248 21.8 Bender Jason Vargas
249 21.9 Sanders Lance Berkman
250 21.10 Sarris Cory Luebke
251 21.11 Wade J.J. Hardy
252 21.12 Jackie Peanuts Alexei Ramirez
253 22.1 Jackie Peanuts Kevin Youkilis
254 22.2 Wade Dee Gordon
255 22.3 Sarris Kyuji Fujikawa
256 22.4 Sanders Michael Young
257 22.5 Bender Andy Pettitte
258 22.6 J Zim Jason Hammel
259 22.7 Zarzycki Clay Buchholz
260 22.8 Harrison Bruce Rondon
261 22.9 Wiers Sean Marshall
262 22.10 Cwik Chris Tillman
263 22.11 Swydan Andrew Cashner
264 22.12 Petriello Chad Billingsley
265 23.1 Petriello Bud Norris
266 23.2 Swydan Mike Zunino
267 23.3 Cwik Justin Morneau
268 23.4 Wiers Mike Fiers
269 23.5 Harrison Billy Hamilton
270 23.6 Zarzycki Carlos Marmol
271 23.7 Jeff Zim Danny Duffy
272 23.8 Bender Carlos Quentin
273 23.9 Sanders Jordan Pacecho
274 23.10 Sarris Shelby Miller
275 23.11 Wade Aaron Hicks
276 23.12 Jackie Peanuts David Hernandez

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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.

21 Responses to “RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 16-23”

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  1. Ian says:

    Two things stuck out to me.

    1.) How late Rizzo went. MDC has him solidly in the 50-100 range, but in this draft he’s going after the likes of Todd Frazier?

    2.) The order of RP’s taken. Given a lot of bullpen situations are up in the air right now, but the progression just seems really odd.

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    • tylersnotes says:

      i wonder if the slow draft format limits the likelihood of a run at a position. I would expect a live draft with this exact same crowd, now that a lot of teams’ rosters are closer to being secure, would provide completely different results in the last 2/3 of the draft at least.

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    • wily mo says:

      yeah… if somebody wants to explain how and why wilhelmsen and sergio santos are going within a round of each other, i mean, i’ll listen, but

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      • wily mo says:

        or all of santos, alburquerque, pestano and frieri – none of which are closers or were expected to be closers during the holidays (madson signed in november) – going ahead of axford… i get that axford had a dicey season, but that’s still… and santos didn’t? it’s really weird

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    • MustBunique says:

      To the dismay of everyone else in your leagues, I am going to suggest that you take a good look at Todd Frazier’s numbers and position eligibility. I know your point is really about Rizzo going late, but Frazier also may have gone late.

      As for MDC’s rankings right now, they are soooo reflective of their initial rankings at this point because of the high percentage of computer drafted teams that default to the preset rankings that they cannot be trusted. We should all really wait a month or so, or hope that someone does an analysis of their preset rankings, before considering the numbers reliable. They also still have Giancarlo as Mike. A minor issue, but if something that small is left unattended to, what else is sloppy behind the scenes at MDC?

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      • Ian says:

        Well just by a quick glance at the Fans projections so far:

        Frazier: 72 R, 78 RBI, 22 HR, 6 SB, .268

        Rizzo: 87 R, 104 RBI, 28 HR, 5 SB, .284

        One of those guys is borderline waiver wire material, the other is 3rd round type numbers. Given, Rizzo’s projection may be a bit optimistic, and Frazier has flexibility–but there’s a huge gap in performance here.

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      • yosoyfiesta says:

        Fans, as their namesake suggests, are derived from fans and come from a people selecting a statistic range from a handful of stat categories which leads to a projection after 8 people (I think) have submitted their projections. Likely not the best projection system to use.

        Further, comparing Rizzo and Frazier is only useful if we’re talking about them both being 1B. They aren’t, Frazier is presently the Reds starting 3B. At 1B, sure, we can give Rizzo the nod.

        Finally, does Rizzo really have that much more power than Frazier?

        2012 ISOs

        Frazier: .225
        Rizzo: .178

        Unless you somehow believe that Rizzo provides 26 more RBI and 15 more runs than Frazier, then Frazier was taken far too late. He could hit 30+ (prorate his 2012 numbers to 650 PA) and you’re talking about a top tier fantasy 3B.

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      • Ian says:

        I understand the limitations of Fans projections. Bill James’ projections are the only others posted on FanGraphs thus far, which are pretty much in agreement with Fans. When other projections come out, I imagine they’re going to be in the same ranges.

        1B is not nearly as deep as it has been traditionally. Rizzo will likely be a top 12 1B by season’s end. Frazier, I’m not so certain will be a top 12 3B. And if your league has a utility slot, as most do, Rizzo is a much better pick to fill that than Frazier.

        If Frazier hits 30+ HR’s, then sure he’s a top tier fantasy 3B. However the likelyhood of him hitting 30 HR’s is not very high.

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  2. PillsburyFlowboy says:

    rizzo, quentin, and luebke all seem like great picks.

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  3. Matt says:

    I was shocked to see Joe Blanton get selected at all, never mind 2 rounds ahead of Adam LaRoche and Rafael Soriano.

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    • Chris Cwik says:

      Soriano signed with the Nats, literally, hours before this pick was made. That’s why he fell so far in this draft.

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  4. Nick says:

    The Rizzo pick is a flatass steal. I also like Shelby Miller bordering on waiver territory, and Josh Rutledge in the 18th. How does Adam Laroche go after Carlos Pena? Does this league reward sub .200 batting averages?

    I hate these early drafts. I see Rizzo at 198, think I’ll be safe getting him around pick 130, then make fun of the guy who takes him with pick 73. Ahh fantasy baseball. You seductive bitch.

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    • Howard Bender says:

      I will happily admit that I thought LaRoche was already off the board when I took Pena. I most definitely would have grabbed him first. The downside of a draft that takes six weeks and not thoroughly examining the spreadsheet before making your pick.

      However, I do believe in a rebound for Pena. His average won’t ever be pleasant, but I definitely think he is capable of something around .230 with 30-plus HR. His walk rate remains solid and I think staying in the AL but playing half his games at Minute Maid Park in a low-pressure environment is going to help him relax at the plate. For a late round investment, I think he’s worth the look. If I’m wrong and he fails, then I didn’t really lose too much to begin with. He’s simply a bench guy for me coming out of the draft.

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  5. Cam says:

    I was very bored in a very long class, so I did some number crunching.

    Players picked in the top 275, by team:
    LAA 13
    WSH 13
    CIN 12
    DET 12
    LAD 12
    ARI 11
    ATL 11
    BOS 11
    MIL 11
    NYY 11
    STL 11
    TEX 11
    TOR 11
    KCR 10
    SFG 10
    CHC 9
    CHW 9
    CLE 9
    TBR 9
    BAL 8
    SDP 8
    COL 7
    PHI 7
    SEA 7
    MIN 6
    OAK 6
    PIT 6
    NYM 5
    HOU 4
    MIA 3

    Draft position of top player, by team:
    LAA 1
    DET 2
    MIL 3
    PIT 4
    LAD 5
    COL 6
    NYY 7
    CIN 11
    SFG 12
    MIA 13
    NYM 14
    TEX 15
    TBR 16
    TOR 17
    ATL 20
    MIN 24
    WSH 25
    CHC 29
    BOS 30
    ARI 31
    BAL 34
    STL 35
    OAK 38
    KCR 43
    SEA 44
    SDP 48
    CLE 56
    PHI 60
    HOU 69
    CHW 70

    +8 Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Stuck in a slump says:

    Gyorko seems like such a reach there, we don’t even know if he’s going to get playing time. Did Wiers just wait too long to draft a 2B?

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  7. deezy333 says:

    How much weight do you put in mdc’s asp right now. I don’t categorize myself as an expert yet, but their asp seems to be realty out of wack.

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    • Howard Bender says:

      The ADP on Mock Draft Central is actually not very reliable right now as MustBunique said above here in the comments and I have said in a few earlier pieces. Their numbers should be a lot more reliable once we get into Spring Training, most likely closer to the end of February.

      However, I do ADP trend analysis articles for MDC and I am using data I get from the NFBC. Their ADP, while not the greatest sample size right now, still has a pretty good level of accuracy as those mocks are done by people gearing up to compete and they stick through the mock until the end. Very few computer picks so the later rounds don;t just default to rankings. You can find those articles on the home page of MDC and I also use that data here in some of my work.

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  8. NBH says:

    Werth, Hunter and LaRoche are great bargains. People (myself included!) really penalize the older (boring) players, but I would be thrilled to get any of those guys in R18!

    If Werth is on the field he will help across the board, in a very strong lineup.

    LaRoche has basically only had one bad season in his entire career and it was due to injury.

    Hunter has playing time risk and the power and speed will disappear at some point, but he hits for a great AVG and always chips in a ton of counting stats.

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  9. Jack says:

    Did I miss Ryan Howard, Kendys Morales, Coco Crisp & Colby Rasmsu being picked in this draft?

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  10. JonathanAicardi says:

    Zarzycki! With a couple of big thefts nailing Garcia and Lowrie back to back. Rizzo and Grilli this late in the game are pretty sweet too. That’s a lot of upside and cheddar for rounds that saw a lot of non-roster prospects.

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